S&P DOW Weekly 4th October 2008

S&P Weekly Cash

In September US markets had reached their Yearly lows, and the expectation that any up trend in the 4th Quarter was dependant on the October 50% level.

The best case scenario was:- a 4th Quarter rise but will eventually lead to lower price is 2009.

The worse case scenario, which I didn't want to see is now playing out.

A Monthly and Quarterly close below the Yearly lows constitutes a breakout, which will lead to further erosion in stocks prices in the 4th Quarter...and a bear market of lower lows into 2010.

At this stage Prices are looking to go lower and will struggle to remain above the October 50% level, and probably sometime in the next quarter the S&P will end up around 1000 before any potential reversal up into the Yearly 2009 50% level, and then another leg down into 2009.



DOW Weekly cash

A Set-up:- is the best case scenario but will eventually lead to lower prices in 2009.

B Set-up:- is the one that will probably play out for the rest of 2008, and much less likely that any rises in the 4th Quarter.

But everything is leading to lower prices in 2009....

DOW S&P Weekly Report 27th Sept 2008

S&P Cash Weekly

US markets found their lows in September and expectation that the last Quarter of 2008 will continue higher and slightly higher in 2009, before continuing lower in 2009.

But the up move in the last Quarter is simply dependant on the October 50% level.

DOW and S&P Weekly futures

All Trends are defined by the 50% levels as price thrusts outward, and price is still below the monthy 50% level.

With a shift in time price can still continue lower in October, but that's not my view in the last Quarter.

My view has always remained, once the Yearly lows are reach the last Quarter will rise higher......

DOW and S&P Daily futures

And we can see a major shift in resistance in the next few days.

What was resistance for many months can quickly become support in October, but i'm not expecting any higher moves in October than those highs in the previous Quarter.

At this stage the view is for the next Quarter to remain in a large trading range between recent lows and previous Quarterly highs.

So get your 'swing-trading' hats on for the next 3-months.

DOW S&P Weekly Report 20 Sept 2008

DOW Weekly

The DOW and most global markets hit their Yearly lows this week, and as I've pointed out previously, once these lower levels have been reached the expectation is for global markets to begin to move upwards in the next Quarter and close higher at the end of this year.



S&P Weekly cash:-

In 2008 with the breakout of the December lows from 2007, there was a market structure for global markets to move down into their Yearly lows.

The movement of price down into 1158 was based on the highest timeframe 'dynamic', that being the Yearly, but price will often zig-zag within lesser timeframe 'dynamics' until it gets there, which is often based on each Monthly timeframe.

Now the lows have been reached in 2008, the first sign of confirming the continuation upwards will need to be verified by a cross over of the October 50% level next month.

Once that occurs, the view is for the markets to continue towards the 3-month highs.

As I have been saying for weeks, the markets had to come down lower in this Quarter before a 3 -month counter -trend move upwards, and finally that completed this week....

However, any UP move in the next Quarter won't stop the inevitable:- global markets will go down into 2009.

Therefore how high we close in 2008, determines how far we go down into 2009, and global markets will go down in 2009, as shown in the chart above.

DOW and S&P Futures

Therefore the September 50% levels are still seen as resistance in this month, but with a shift in the Monthly timeframe in October, if any up trend is going to continue higher then price should be supported above the October 50% level and continue upwards into a higher close in 2008.

Regardless of any up moves in the next Quarter, and the SPIN you hear that the bear market has ended, there will be another severe down move in 2009

DOW S&P Weekly Report 13 Sept 2008

"Down trend continues with the push down from September 50% levels, with a shift in the Monthly balance points:- Expectation for next week is to continue down into next Week's lows .

If the trend is going to continue down, it wouldn't surprise me to see a re-test of September 50% level in the Week of contract expiry and then for price to continue lower"

Previous Weekly Report

DOW S&P Weekly charts

US markets tested their September levels early in the Week and were pushed lower.

This Week is contract expiry which often can see higher prices, but I can't see higher prices in US markets based on Market dynamics during this month.

I still see more sideways prices action with hopefully lower prices in this Quarter.

S&P Daily

This Week US markets gaped open higher based on the news that the FED was bailing out Freddie & Fannie, but that didn't last long.

US markets were pushed back down into their Weekly lows:- Monthly 50% rejection.

S&P 5-day pattern

As pointed out in the Premium report :- look for 2-day set-ups using the yellow channels within the Weekly timeframe.

Trade the break on Tuesday down into the lows. Use Wednesday's 50% level to trade down again.

Thursday:- was simply trade either side of the Yellow filter, as after a 2-day pattern extension the 3rd day doesn't have a probability on direction.

As pointed out....if Friday was going to move higher then price would come down into support and bounce closing higher.

S&P Weekly CASH


Therefore more sideways action this quarter, with hopefully a push down into 1158-73.

Whether it gets to 1158-73 in 2008 or not, this is the level that I will feel highly confident in that the 2008 lows have been set and US markets can begin a 3-month upswing to close out 2008.

Otherwise it's more sideways price action until then....But if prices are trading above the forward 50% level in the new Quarter (October) then the bias is to continue higher in Monthly step formation over the 3-month period.

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DOW S&P Weekly Report 6 Sept 2008

"The interesting part of the new month is the shift in the balance point in September....

If US markets are going to continue higher it should start with another 'pop' upwards in September and finally breakout.

If the trend is going to continue down, as part of my overall view, then the shift in time has resulted in a shift in Monthly support.....

Below September balance points in US markets, and things don't look so good..."

Previous Weekly report

DOW S&P Daily

Down trend continues with the push down from September 50% levels, with a shift in the Monthly balance points, breaking of the Weekly lows.

Expectation for next week is to continue down into next Week's lows .

Previous Weekly low breakout and next Week's 50% level will be viewed as resistance.

DOW and S&P Weekly Charts

"US markets remain in a sideways Weekly pattern below the Monthly 50% levels, and still remain below these levels with the 4th Week failing to breakout above....

I'm still bearish on Markets, as most robust counter-trend rallies begin from the Quarterly lows, and that isn't the case at this stage, even though July's lows were 'BUY' levels, but only towards the Monthly 50% levels and exit 'longs'."

Previous Weekly Report....

The Friday close below the 3-week cycle lows isn't a good sign for any higher moves in this quarter....

If the trend is going to continue down, it wouldn't surprise me to see a re-test of September 50% level in the Week of contract expiry and then for price to continue lower :- 3rd Week sell as per previous Weekly report.

The bias is to continue lower, but things don't go down in straight lines... they zig-zag between dynamic support and resistance.

5-day pattern using the filter and high probability patterns this week.

It started with the 'POP' upwards early in the week using the Monthly balance point towards the 5-day highs, but then reversed down closing below support, which pushes lower the next day.

As pointed out in Thursday's report:- a break of support on Thursday and price is following Weekly pattern lower with a breakout of the 5-day lows...

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DOW S&P Weekly Report 30th August08

"US markets remain range bound trading below some major resistance levels :- June breakout and August 50% levels.

The expectation remains that price should hopefully complete the lower levels in this quarter before any 3-month counter-trend upwards begins...

4th Week:- last week of the month often starts the next trend, which
leads into the continuation of the trend in the following month, but who is not to say that next Week just continues higher...."

Previous Weekly Report

DOW and S&P Weekly

US markets remain in a sideways Weekly pattern below the Monthly 50% levels, and still remain below these levels with the 4th Week failing to breakout above....

I'm still bearish on Markets, as most robust counter-trend rallies begin from the Quarterly lows, and that isn't the case at this stage, even though July's lows were 'BUY' levels, but only towards the Monthly 50% levels and exit 'longs'.

DOW Daily

Monthly 50% levels have been resisting any further gains, but Price hasn't moved lower either, and that's best illustrated by the August balance points.

Price has been trading above the August balance points, which started with the 'pop' upwards at the beginning of August.

However, for the past 4 weeks US markets have remained range bound, which has resulted in ideal 2-day pattern swing trading using high probability set-ups within the 5-day pattern, as shown below.

S&P Weekly

The interesting part of the new month is the shift in the balance point in September....

If US markets are going to continue higher it should start with another 'pop' upwards in September and finally breakout.

If the trend is going to continue down, as part of my overall view, then the shift in time has resulted in a shift in Monthly support.....

Below September balance points in US markets, and things don't look so good, but it takes time to unwind.

If price is trading below the Setember balance points, it will be the 3rd week of the month which will take most of my interest. I'll come to that after the next 2 weeks of trading.

Contract expiry in September, which normally supports the market. Any weakness would be after contract expiry (3rd Week)

E-mini 5-day patterns

Last Week was ideal 5-day pattern swing trading....

Monday break of support and expectation of a 2-day down move into Tuesday.

Tuesday short the 50% level as part of the 2-day down move.

Wednesday look for an up move from support....

and Thursday and Friday weren't probability patterns but part of 5-day extension upwards from the 50% level and back down into support :- Sideways Weekly timeframes.....

Therefore:- September is all about the balance points, and at this stage it's an each way bet.

For Day and Swing traders, simply trade on the Yellow channel as it follows the 5-day pattern.

DOW S&P Weekly Report 23rd August 08

DOW S&P Weekly charts

US markets remain range bound trading below some major resistance levels :- June breakout and August 50% levels.

The expectation remains that price should hopefully complete the lower levels in this quarter before any 3-month counter-trend upwards begins...


DOW and S&P Daily charts


Everything about the past 3 weeks of trading set-up Friday as the
potential continuation of the down trend in US markets

From the 'pop' upwards at the start of August, the 2nd week's failure
to close higher on Friday above the August 50% levels, and then the
sell pattern this week and break below the Weekly 50% level this
week.

Even after Thursday's failure (2nd day stall) and no 'Hook' day above
the Weekly 50% level, Friday looked like a 'text book' Sell pattern.

S&P 5-day pattern

Break of support on Monday and trend continues down:- monthly 50% level rejection pattern...

Expectation on Wednesday that the US markets would move into a 2-day counter-trend move upwards...and with Thursday's failure to close above the Weekly 50% level, everthing looked perfect for the down trend to continue.

Expect Friday rallied off support and not break lower...

As a day-trader it doesn't really matter where the market goes:- simply trade the levels.

But as a swing trader on stocks over weeks and months, I was hoping
this was going to be the final drive down into 2008 lows before we finally
get a 3 month counter move upwards (as shown in the Weekly charts)

Friday's price action at this stage only leads me to think more sideways
price action, even though next week is the 4th Week :-

4th Week:- last week of the month often starts the next trend, which
leads into the continuation of the trend in the following month, but who is not to say that
next Week just continues higher....

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