S&P Weekly Cash
In September US markets had reached their Yearly lows, and the expectation that any up trend in the 4th Quarter was dependant on the October 50% level.
The best case scenario was:- a 4th Quarter rise but will eventually lead to lower price is 2009.
The worse case scenario, which I didn't want to see is now playing out.
A Monthly and Quarterly close below the Yearly lows constitutes a breakout, which will lead to further erosion in stocks prices in the 4th Quarter...and a bear market of lower lows into 2010.
At this stage Prices are looking to go lower and will struggle to remain above the October 50% level, and probably sometime in the next quarter the S&P will end up around 1000 before any potential reversal up into the Yearly 2009 50% level, and then another leg down into 2009.
DOW Weekly cash
A Set-up:- is the best case scenario but will eventually lead to lower prices in 2009.
B Set-up:- is the one that will probably play out for the rest of 2008, and much less likely that any rises in the 4th Quarter.
But everything is leading to lower prices in 2009....
