S&P DOW Index Weekly 29th March 2008

S&P CASH Weekly Charts

Consolidation currently around the Quarterly lows, and with 1 day remaining until the Next Quarterly timeframe begins, those lows are much further down from Next Week.

However, I don't see the S&P going that low in the next Quarter (1189), but I do see the Yearly lows @ 1238 being touched before any Major reversal UPwards.


DOW CASH Weekly charts

The Yearly down trend began in 2008 with the move down from the Yearly BP, and confirmed with the break of the previous Quarter (Sept-Dec).

This Quarterly timeframe has pushed down, but it has remained in a major 3-month sideways pattern trading around the Quarterly lows.

Those Quarterly lows push lower in the next Quarter, so there's potential to move lower inthe next Quarter, where once again it will find support and consolidate.

The Yearly lows are much lower, and if it gets that low it will probably take another 6-9 months for that to happen. If price is following the Quarterly patterns lower, then it will take 2-3 Quarterly timeframes to even get that low.

And that's a long time in any trader's language.

Until then, the S&P will probably find support around the Yearly lows, and reverse back up into quarterly 50% levels.

And Yes....US Markets could end up moving back towards the Yearly Balance points, where it all began in 2008. But again it's going to take a number of months for that to happen....


DOW and E-mini Daily Charts

"Since the start of 2008, US markets haven't been able to trade and remain above the Weekly channels highs.

Those Weekly channel highs are shown above and the expectation remains that those highs are resistance...I would like for this Month to complete and then use the April 50% level as a trend guide for next quarter.

Weekly 'highs' resistance for another Week before using the April 50% level next month as a more robust trend guide if US markets are going to continue into higher prices." ( Previous Weekly report)

And the Weekly highs have remained resistance, and has pushed back down towards the April balance point.

The April Balance point from Tuesday is going to be the trend guide on whether price is going to move higher, or continue with the Quarterly ranges into lower lows.


E-mini intra-day 5-day chart

I've only put in the E-mini intra-day chart but the DOW is exactly the same.

The expectation that the Weekly highs would be resistance this week and push back down, and the two highest probability DOWN days were:- Wednesday and Friday with Price breaking Risk-Support.

This makes it much easier for a trader in Australia to be trading US markets.

And it makes no difference for any other trader around the globe.

Next week expectation to push down into Daily support, which should then align with the April balance point.


please refer to the daily Report in the "trader trading blog"

S&P DOW Weekly 22nd March 2008

S&P Cash Weekly charts

New Quarter begins in just over 1 week, but there is more downside to come in 2008 with the lower levels, as shown in the charts above.

Resistance still remains around the Weekly cycle highs, which is the breakout of the Quarterly lows from 2007.

E-mini Daily charts

US markets have been range bound and consolidating in a downward sideways pattern for the past 2 months, as it trades between the Weekly channels.

Since the start of 2008, US markets haven't been able to trade and remain above the Weekly channels highs.

Those Weekly channel highs are shown above and the expectation remains that those highs are resistance.

However, with the start of the new quarter things might change and begin a gradual rise back towards the cycle highs @ 1388.

Note: I would like for this Month to complete and then use the April 50% level as a trend guide for next quarter. Therefore I'm looking for another week of sideways trading into the end of the month.

DOW Cash Weekly charts

April highs expected resistance with the expectation of further downside price action into the Yearly lows later this year...

DOW Daily futures

Weekly 'highs' resistance for another Week before using the April 50% level next month as a more robust trend guide if the DOW is going to continue into higher prices.

Note: As mentioned in last week's report, the week of contract expiry has a tendency to push upwards into the Expiry date. This played out, but I'm sure the FED cutting rates helped it along.

Please refer to the Daily report for full Daily analysis.

DOW S&P Weekly Report 15th March 2008

Monday is viewed as 'Support' with the expectation that any 2-3 day reversal upwards will be a short-term move before the market moves lower next week towards March lows...(Previous Weekly Report 8th March)

DOW Weekly and Daily charts

Last Week the US markets moved into a 2-day counter-trend move upwards into the 3-day highs, and then continued down on Friday, as it follows the overall trend of the breakout Quarterly lows, with the expected down move towards the March lows.

With Financial stocks taking a beating on Friday on the back 'Bear Sterns', the markets are expected to remain in a downward trend.

Only the FED stepping in on Friday to bail out the company stopped the markets falling further.

S&P Weekly and Daily charts

Both the DOW and S&P and pointing to much lower prices, this was confirmed with the breakout of the Quarterly lows last week, and the re-test of those lows and failure this week:- 2-day reversal upwards and failure.

At this stage I can't see any major UP move back into higher timeframe 50% level (Trailing resistance) until the next Quarter

DOW and E-mini Intra-day charts

The most robust pattern when trading the markets within the bigger picture is the 5-day patterns. These dynamic ranges are going to give traders the clearest picture, analysis, and RISK reward when day-trading intra-day trends.

And the Support level is ideal to be trading the movement within those cycles.

And with the break of Friday's support, the expectation is another push down into Monday's lows.

Note: March contract expires next week. Often when the week of contract expiry, there is a tendency for price to push higher into the date of expiry.

The movement and direction of the daily trend, along with 2-3 day swing patterns will be clearly defined by the Daily support levels.

Full Report in the Daily "the trader trading".....

DOW S&P Weekly 8th March 2008

DOW Weekly CASH Chart

Expectation of further weakness from April has come early with the break of the Weekly lows this week.

Overall down-trend is towards the Yearly lows:- with the Dilernia Principle of a 2-Year lower low Pattern expected into 2009.

And along with consolidating phases within each Quarterly and Monthly period....

"As the Weekly timeframe begins to 'tighten' and get smaller, there will be a breakout of the range, which will probably occur the closer it comes to the next contract expiry."

DOW Futures Weekly and Daily chart:- After a 4-day sideways pattern the break on Friday has confirmed that the market is moving down towards March lows, with once again the first support-target zone is the Weekly lows @ 11687....

And we had a high probability pattern to favour the down move continuing on Friday using the 2-day 'support' break from Thursday's highs.....(Chart Below)

DOW intra-day & 5-day ranges:- After 4 weeks of sideways price action in February, the down-trend began with the #2 break last Friday.

Over the previous 4 weeks, the 2nd support zone provided lows in the market, on that day it was the first time it didn't, and this resulted in the down-trend continuing.

And we can see the same pattern occurring: break of 'support' moves down into the 5-day lows, and continues down towards the next support zone in the next trading day:- Thursday into Friday.

The same will apply next week.....there is a breakout of the 5-day lows on Friday (expected resistance) with a push down into Monday's lows (support) using the 5-day 50% level as resistance.

S&P Weekly CASH

Break of Support and heading down towards the Yearly low......

Expected price action was to head down towards Yearly lows in the next Quarterly timeframe, but this has occured earlier with the break of the Weekly lows this week.

E-mini Daily:- 4-days of sideways price action, with the break of Support on Friday.....

Expected down move into the Weekly lows:- 1267 , and then down into March lows.

E-mini intraday and 5-day ranges:-

Once again the Break of #2 last Friday began the wave down.

This Week is following the same patterns of break of 'support' and moving down into next 'Support' , where once again short-covering came into the market but the short-covering was going to stall because of the 5-day lows.

This Friday the market was supported and Monday is viewed as 'Support' with the expectation that any 2-3 reversal upwards will be a short-term move before the market moves lower next week towards March lows...

Please read the Daily Report....