S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1st December 2018

S&P Primary & Weekly Cycles

 I've been bullish on US markets with the expectation that the trend continues to move up into new highs until 2020-21.  

This is based on the 2016 lows and then the trend continuing higher using the Primary cycles for an initial two years (2018 highs) and up to 4/5 years.  (2020-21)

There's also a ton of good economic news coming out of the US that suggests the trend continue higher.

My expectation is...

1. A  move downward and another retest of the 2018 50% & November lows, more than likely next week.

The trend then can go higher (PREVIOUS REPORT)

From my previous post, there was some early weakness in November, but it didn't reach the November lows, instead we had buying into the Market, closing on its highs on the last day of the month, but right on the Monthly 50% level for December.

I still continue to be Bullish even though a lot of people are extremely bearish on markets, just read Zero Hedge.

The reason I'm bullish is, because I believe the NEW bull trend starting from the 2016 lows, whereas, most punters think the BULL TREND started in 2009 and has continued upwards ever since.

S&P MONTHLY CHARTS

The trend finished in 2015 and a new one started in 2016.

Historically, the 2016 lows will have a natural uptrend for 2 years (2018) and often the trend lasts 4-5 years. This is why I'm bullish until 2020-21, with an overall target of 100% of the Primary Range.

However, I'm always weary of Price trading below the 2019 50% level, which could see price move down 100% of the range


IVV.AX Primary Cycles

When we look at the Exchange Traded Fund IVV, we notice price is trading above the 2018 highs.

If the Exchange Traded Fund is above the 2018 highs, then the expectation is that Price is in a BREAK & EXTEND pattern and it should continue to move higher in 2019.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 4th November 2018

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

As you know I've been bullish on US markets with the expectation that the trends continue to move up into new highs until 2020-21.  

This is based on the 2016 lows and then the trend continuing higher using the Primary cycles for an initial two years (2018 highs) and up to 4/5 years.  (2020-21)

There's also a ton of good economic news coming out of the US that suggests the trend continue higher.

However, when we're looking at the Primary Cycles this trend can quickly change to the downside.

My expectation is...

1. A  move downward and another retest of the 2018 50% & November lows, more than likely next week.

The trend then can go higher with the news that the Republicans take the House & Senate.

2. Market flat-lines into the end of the year and then the Bear market follows the Primary Cycle in 2019 and moves down to 100% of the range, as the first move.

3. Worse case scenario, 'Crash in 2018 to 100% of the range to 2060