DOW S&P Weekly 1st August 2009

S&P 500

3rd Quarter Thrust pattern heading into the Yearly 50% level @ 1037.

Around 1037 is viewed as a resistance zone for 2009.

DOW S&P Monthly

Based on 'August' dynamics those yearly targets might not get reached until September.

At this stage there is a July high breakout and expectation that price should continue towards August highs.

Around August highs is viewed as resistance with a potential preversal back down into the monthly 50% level, but if that happens then my view is more upwards until 1037 is reached in the S&P


DOW S&P Weekly

It will depend on how price responds to a higher Weekly open and trading around the 5-day highs, which is when most trend reversals occur.

The minimium pullback based on this pattern is a 2-day reversal, but it's how far the 2-day reversal moves downward that will make a difference....Previous Weekly report.


Last Week started with a higher Weekly open and 2-day pullback, but failed to move below the 5-day 50% level resulting in the Trend remaining with an upwards bias.


Expectation of higher prices into August....

August 50% levels and Weekly 50& levels are Support.

Day traders:- trade the 5-day patterns

DOW S&P Weekly 25th July 2009

US Index Markets:- DOW S&P

3rd quarter thrust patterns sending markets higher with a target towards 9872 in the DOW and 1037 in the S&P 500.

DOW S&P Weekly

Thrust patterns in the 3rd Quarter have seen markets rally into their July highs without any short-term pullbacks..

There is still a view of higher prices in the 3rd Quarter, and July's highs will dynamically move upwards in August, so these resistance levels will disappear.

We are due for a short-term pullback into the Weekly 50% levels, but I
have seen 'Thrust' patterns before and they are what they are....Trending patterns.

And this trend can continue higher and follow the Weekly trends upwards into Next Week's highs.

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

US markets continued upwards on Friday because of the 5-day breakout from Thursday, resulting in a Weekly close above July highs.

There is a Quarterly Thrust Pattern that is pushing the Market higher, and because of this pattern price can continue to follow the Weekly ranges and push upwards next week.

Any trend reversals in the market often occur at the start of the new trading week, A higher weekly open that sells down towards Support, in this case the Weekly 50% level.

Therefore next week becomes critical on the direction of the market, even though I still think markets are going higher in the 3rd quarter.

It will depend on how price responds to a higher Weekly open and trading around the 5-day highs, which is when most trend reversals occur.

The minimium pullback based on this pattern is a 2-day reversal, but it's how far the 2-day reversal moves downward that will make a difference.

DOW S&P Monthly

Because when we apply the Montlhy ranges, we can see they have broken out and can continue to trend upwards in the last Week of the Month and follow a 'break & extend' pattern UP into August highs.

At this stage, any short-term 2 day pullback would need to see price trading below 8885 in the DOW and 960 S&P....

Otherwise it's going to continue upwards, which is what I think will happen anyway.

DOW S&P Weekly 18th July 2009

S&P Quarterly

Since the March and subsequent rally into the 2nd Quarter highs in June, I had an expectation that there would be a 3rd quarter UP move towards the Yearly 50% levels for a number of months

However, last week that expectation change because in the first week of the 3rd quarter 50% level price began to push downward and not up, so my view changed for a split second.

The first week down move was a ‘fake’ break, and now we have a potential Thrust pattern pushing the market towards the Yearly 50% level @ 1037.

The expectation remains that US markets and other global markets are heading higher in the 3rd Quarter towards the Yearly 50% levels, as all trends originate from 50% levels and push outward

DOW S&P Monthly

Expectation that around the level @ 7897 and 858 would swing US markets upwards over 3-days

"Around those levels might provide the first multi-day (3-day Swing) UP move towards the July and Weekly 50% level Resistance Zones…. ................Previous Week report"


Instead the lows were 8018 and 865, and Monday had closed above the Monthly 50% levels.

The 3-day UP swing was a random pattern, as it would have provided enough information on how markets were going to 'treat' the 3rd Quarter 50% levels....

Would they resist and continue downward into August? (2-month wave pattern)

Or would they close above and form a 'fake break' and new Thrust pattern UPwards? ( Primary Trend reversal pattern into the 50% levels)

By Tuesday it was a 'fake' break, and by Wednesday it was the start of a Thrust pattern that should continue higher into August

DOW S&P Weekly

There was an expectation of a 3-day UP swing into the Weekly 50% level, but when Wednesday started the move above the Weekly 50% level there was now a lower weekly open and Thrust pattern occurring pushing the market higher.

Next Weeks 50% level is now the trend guide on any continuation higher.

Above and it is continuing higher.

It would be ideal to get some short-term pullback into the Weekly 50% level early next week, but there isn't a 5-day pattern set-up to suggest that will happen, and the new week can continue higher.

DOW S&P Weekly 11th July 2009

DOW S&P Primary and Secondary Trends

As per the previous Report, the next move in the market was based on the direction price took in relation to the 3rd Quarter 50% levels.

The March low rally into the 2nd Quarter 50% levels (resistance) , has now resulted in a 3rd Quarter 50% level push down in early July, which has a danger of moving back towards the lows once again over the next two Quarters.

DOW S&P Monthly

Whenever price crosses over the monthly 50% level I factor in a 2-month wave pattern, and in this case that's down into August lows.

In July we have two monthly support levels @ the Green and Blue levels, which may or may not support price because of the larger trends pushing the market down.

However, if they do support price in July, i'm still factoring in a 2nd monthly down move in August at this stage.

S&P Weekly

July 50% level had 1 day support, and then price continued to move down into the Weekly lows, and will probably continue down into next week's weekly lows.

At this stage I would treat the July 50% level and Weekly 50% levels as resistance.

Those Weekly lows next week begin to' match' the first Monthly Support levels (Green), shown in the previous Chart.

Around those levels might provide the first multi-day (3-day Swing) UP move towards the July and Weekly 50% level Resistance Zones

DOW S&P Weekly 4th July 2009

S&P 500 Yearly

Ever since the March lows were reached that coincided with the Yearly lows in 2009, my view has been a 3rd Quarter UP move towards the Yearly 50% level.

This is a technical pattern which can often be seen throughout a number of lesser timeframes, which is occurring in the largest timeframe and Primary Trend:- breakout of the 2008 extends downward and then begins to long journey back towards the 50% level from lower support levels and matches the 2008 breakout.

Therefore as of next week, the trend should be defined by the 3rd Quarter 50% levels...

Either a new UP trend emerges to complete my view of a Primary trend rotation, or markets sell off again back down into the March lows by the 4th Quarter.

DOW Yearly

The exact same thing applies on the DOW:- 8347 is the trend guide...

DOW S&P Monthly

"Based on Friday's close and a Higher Weekly open next week, I would view that price should continue to rotate down into July's 50% levels that will be confirmed after the next 3-days of trading"............Previous Weekly Report

US markets reversed back down into the July 50% levels, and as of early next week the direction of the trend should be mapped out after the first 3-days of trading...

Either US markets push down from a lower Weekly open....

Or prices rise up from a lower Weekly open and rise up from July's 50% levels.

But the UP move won't be confirmed until price is back above the Weekly 50% levels and consolidating above them.