The expectation remains that price should hopefully complete the lower levels in this quarter before any 3-month counter-trend upwards begins...
4th Week:- last week of the month often starts the next trend, which
leads into the continuation of the trend in the following month, but who is not to say that next Week just continues higher...."
Previous Weekly Report
DOW and S&P Weekly
US markets remain in a sideways Weekly pattern below the Monthly 50% levels, and still remain below these levels with the 4th Week failing to breakout above....
I'm still bearish on Markets, as most robust counter-trend rallies begin from the Quarterly lows, and that isn't the case at this stage, even though July's lows were 'BUY' levels, but only towards the Monthly 50% levels and exit 'longs'.
DOW Daily
Monthly 50% levels have been resisting any further gains, but Price hasn't moved lower either, and that's best illustrated by the August balance points.
Price has been trading above the August balance points, which started with the 'pop' upwards at the beginning of August.
However, for the past 4 weeks US markets have remained range bound, which has resulted in ideal 2-day pattern swing trading using high probability set-ups within the 5-day pattern, as shown below.
S&P Weekly
The interesting part of the new month is the shift in the balance point in September....
If US markets are going to continue higher it should start with another 'pop' upwards in September and finally breakout.
If the trend is going to continue down, as part of my overall view, then the shift in time has resulted in a shift in Monthly support.....
Below September balance points in US markets, and things don't look so good, but it takes time to unwind.
If price is trading below the Setember balance points, it will be the 3rd week of the month which will take most of my interest. I'll come to that after the next 2 weeks of trading.
Contract expiry in September, which normally supports the market. Any weakness would be after contract expiry (3rd Week)
E-mini 5-day patterns
Last Week was ideal 5-day pattern swing trading....
Monday break of support and expectation of a 2-day down move into Tuesday.
Tuesday short the 50% level as part of the 2-day down move.
Wednesday look for an up move from support....
and Thursday and Friday weren't probability patterns but part of 5-day extension upwards from the 50% level and back down into support :- Sideways Weekly timeframes.....
Therefore:- September is all about the balance points, and at this stage it's an each way bet.
For Day and Swing traders, simply trade on the Yellow channel as it follows the 5-day pattern.
