If SET-UP A plays out then I'm looking for a move back down into the Yearly lows, but it might take a few weeks to unwind into a new down-trend."
26th July Weekly report
DOW and S&P Daily chartsUS markets have continued higher at the start of August and have moved towards the monthly 50% levels, and Weekly highs.....
S&P 5-day pattern
The S&P and DOW 5-day patterns were very similar using the 5-day filtering techniques over the previous week, and with the expectation that markets would continue higher into Friday...
DOW & S&P Weekly charts
The August50% levels are major resistance zones, and I have modelled that there could be a reversal down towards August lows, as shown in the charts above.
However I don't think next week is simply going to be reversing down and into a 'blow' off bottom. Personally I would like that to happen because it's the pattern I have modellled for the markets to bottom out and move into a rotation back up towards the 3-month highs, as mentioned in last week's report. ....
"The Yearly lows in August-September.... once lows are reached it will align with a quarterly timeframe from October that could see the first major reversal back towards the 3-month highs in all global Index Markets"
As mentioned two weeks ago, any down move would have to unwind over the next couple of weeks, and if there is a continuation down it will probably occur in the last Week of the month.
Note:- it won't surprise me to see higher prices over the next two weeks:- but I would like to see a rotation down and test the Weekly 50% level early next week, and if that occurs then markets should continue higher into a higher close on Friday.
If that patterns play out but Friday can't remain above the monthly 50% levels, then it's beginning to look like these levels will be resistance and a 'sell' pattern could eventuate later this month...
For Day-traders and/or swings traders, it's once again using the 5-day pattern techniques when trading any moves next week.
S&P Weekly CASH
As illustrated at the start of July :- a bounce off these lows could see the S&P as high as 1329 this quarter, and if that's the case then next Week's 50% level is critical on the trend continuing higher.
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