DOW Weekly
The DOW and most global markets hit their Yearly lows this week, and as I've pointed out previously, once these lower levels have been reached the expectation is for global markets to begin to move upwards in the next Quarter and close higher at the end of this year.
S&P Weekly cash:-
In 2008 with the breakout of the December lows from 2007, there was a market structure for global markets to move down into their Yearly lows.
The movement of price down into 1158 was based on the highest timeframe 'dynamic', that being the Yearly, but price will often zig-zag within lesser timeframe 'dynamics' until it gets there, which is often based on each Monthly timeframe.
Now the lows have been reached in 2008, the first sign of confirming the continuation upwards will need to be verified by a cross over of the October 50% level next month.
Once that occurs, the view is for the markets to continue towards the 3-month highs.
As I have been saying for weeks, the markets had to come down lower in this Quarter before a 3 -month counter -trend move upwards, and finally that completed this week....
However, any UP move in the next Quarter won't stop the inevitable:- global markets will go down into 2009.
Therefore how high we close in 2008, determines how far we go down into 2009, and global markets will go down in 2009, as shown in the chart above.
DOW and S&P Futures
Therefore the September 50% levels are still seen as resistance in this month, but with a shift in the Monthly timeframe in October, if any up trend is going to continue higher then price should be supported above the October 50% level and continue upwards into a higher close in 2008.
Regardless of any up moves in the next Quarter, and the SPIN you hear that the bear market has ended, there will be another severe down move in 2009
