2 weeks ago I mentioned in the Weekly report that the 'blow-off' bottom could occur in this Quarterly timeframe, and any reversal upwards would be towards the 3-month highs in the foward Quarterly timeframe.
We got the blow-off bottom, and now the market is moving towards the 3-month highs during this Quarter and into the next Quarter
Each Quarterly timeframe low will support price, and move back towards the Central levels on the higher timeframes, in this case the Yearly 50% level @ 13002..
If there is going to be a 2nd wave of selling it will occur in the forward Quarterly timeframe, that being in the 2nd or 3rd Quarter. Therefore for the next few months I'm looking for US and all global markets to move into a consolidation phase.....
Above is the Weekly chart of DOW Cash:- consolidation range between Yearly 50% level and Quarterly lows..
S&P CashRising upwards from Quarterly lows and at this stage the expectation is that price will hit resistance around the Yearly balance point.
Forward modelling shows lower lows from April:- Expectation that market will consolidate between current Quarterly lows and Yearly 50% levels for the next couple of months, and only then would I expect further Weakness this year.
DOW futures:-
Last weekly report:- " High Probability pattern:- upside move next week.....
Down-day closing below the Weekly 50%, but then the next day 'HOOKS' back inside the Weekly 50 % closing above..... then I favour a move towards 12700 in the 2nd half of the week as it rises upwards"
Price action reversed off the 3-day lows and 5-day 50% level on Monday (see intraday charts below), resulting in a HOOK day and the continuation back towards the February 50% level.
The January Resistance (trading below January Breakout) finished on the last day of the month, and at the start of the new month, the resistance disappears and market path can move more freely upwards.
Next Week:- Expectation of further gains towards the Weekly highs (12969) before reversing back down towards the Weekly 50% level later in the week.
E-mini Futures: -
Exact same price action with the 'Hook' day,then the re-test of the Weekly 50% level before heading into a higher close on Friday.
Next Week:- Expectation of further gains up into the Weekly tops before reversing back down towards the Weekly 50% level.
Price pattern Probability:-
Normally when the Weekly timeframe closes on it's high on Friday, I would look for a 2-day pullback towards the 3-day lows before resuming with the upward trend.
This might still happen, because I'm looking for price to move into both levels, however I'm looking for the market to move upwards into the Weekly highs and reversing back down in the later half of the Week, and not the other way around :- moving down and then UP.
Last Weekly Report:- "Support 5-day 50% levels, whilst trading above those levels expectation market is consolidating and could go higher into the Weekly 'tops'...Bullish pattern will be a HOOK day....There has been no daily range breakout, price remains range bound between Daily Channels, therefore whilst price is trading either side of the 5-day 50% level, expectation market is moving towards Daily channels highs.... andremains in a consolidation pattern..."
Because the market is dynamic, and each timeframe project new highs and lows, along with a new dynamic 50% level, the market is moving inside the Daily channels and consolidating with an UP bias.
Each new day provides a new high, which then provides resistance, and until price comes down into the Weekly 50% level, then the same price action can occur until the Weekly highs are reached next...
GBP/USD this week is a perfect example of price moving towards the upper Weekly channels, each day hitting ressistance, but then reversing back down on Friday back towards the Weekly 50% level. Therefore it's the pattern that i'll be focusing on next week.....
Please Refer to the Daily Reports
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