Market Crash of 2008....If the market moves down into a ‘blow-off’ bottom in this quarter then I expect a massive counter-trend move upwards back towards the 3-month highs before the next major sell-off down later this year…
Market Crash of 2008:- remember it because we will all learn from it in the future.
These past two weeks, and especially the 'crash-pattern' of last week was something that we saw coming from the time price moved under the yearly balance points of 2008.
Last year saw two major drops in the markets, in 2006 the same, and in 2005 the same. But the big difference between the corrections of the past 3 years was the Yearly timeframe. Those 3-years were simply corrections within the Yearly bull-trend, where buying into stocks around Quarterly lows was an ideal strategy using Margin positions.
In 2008 it's not, and the overall trend can make lower lows in 2008 in the 2nd half of the year.
DOW CASH:- Trading under the 2nd stage of the bear market @ 12347... currently remains in a bear trend
"Historically, whenever the S&P comes off 23-25% from the 'peak' it's the time to be moving back into stocks (long-term).....Today when the S&P opens it will be down from it's peak 22%...however I think it's still to early to move into Stocks just yet, because I think the S&P will head down to 1170, as per Weekly report and the 3-year dynamic lows later this year... (10,450 DOW) , and much better Value for long term holdings." ( Feb 22nd 2008)
I posted this the day before the Fed cut rates sending the markets upward...there was going the be an UP move around these lows with or without the FED stepping in, because historically the smart traders are moving in around these levels...
But as I also mentioned, the S&P still remains under the important 'bear-trend' level of 1374... and below this, traders need to keep in mind that any weakness is going to send the market down into the lower levels @ 1170..
DOW Futures:-
Dead-cat bounce within the Weekly timeframe and still trading below January lows...
The bear-trend won't begin to dissipate until price is trading above February 50% level..
Trend guide next week is the Weekly 50% level @ 12225
Trading range highs 12700 Trading range lows 11450
If trading below the Weekly 50% level then expectation market is heading down until the 3-day lows catch up with price...
E-mini futures:- Exact same expectation on E-mini futures:- a failure of the 3-day highs and highly probable the market will move down, especially trading below the Weekly 50% level....
High Probability pattern:- upside move next week.....
Down-day closing below the Weekly 50%, but then the next day 'HOOKS' back inside the Weekly 50 % closing above. The day after that, tests the Weekly 50% level (support), and then I favour a move towards 1390 in the 2nd half of the week as it rises upwards from the Trend Guide.
Next week:- Support 5-day 50% levels, whilst trading above those levels expectation market is consolidating and could go higher into the Weekly 'tops'...
Don't trade longs below the 5-day 50% level as 'Bear-trend' remains....
Bullish pattern will be a HOOK day....
Note: There has been no daily range breakout, price remains range bound between Daily Channels, therefore whilst price is trading either side of the 5-day 50% level, expectation market is moving towards Daily channels highs and lows, and remains in a consolidation pattern....
