DOW:Weekly charts:- DOW futures on the left and DOW Cash on the right.
Range bound between Quarterly Support and Resistance from the breakout of the previous Quarterly lows, and the current view is further weakness in the forward quarter in April if price isn't able to close above the 3-week cycle highs @ 12703.
We subscribe to support being valid (BUY) and the resistance being valid (SELL), but eventually one is going to fail:- reverse the down-trend and move higher or continue with the down-trend into lower lows defined by higher timeframe analysis.
Daily chart:- DOW futuresLast Week's high probability pattern was simply using the Weekly 50% level:- above and it was moving back towards the 3-day highs, and above that price was moving towards the 5-day highs.
This price action was supported not only by the Weekly 50% level, but also by Quarterly support and a 'lower' weekly open (bottom-to-top)
Next Week's probability pattern is going to be the same, the Weekly 50% level @12399 is going to be the trend guide, as price remains between range-bound between Support and Resistance.
After last week's Price-pattern of a 2-day reversal down on Thursday and Friday, I favour an UP move on Monday towards the Weekly highs and resistance once again....
Intra-day chart:- DOW futures
Last Week's trading was 'text book' patterns:- 3 days up and probability of a 2-day reversal down from highs on Thursday was another probability pattern, but the important levels in confirming all the moves were the previous 5-day ranges.
Wednesday's UP move was confirmed by Tuesday's 5-day high. Thursday's reversal was confirmed by Wednesday's 5-day high. Friday's down move was confirmed by Thursday's 5-day 50% level...
And Monday's UP move next week is going to be confirmed by the 5-day 50% level (support)
Above support and the expectation is price is heading towards the 5-day highs.
Range bar chart:- DOW Futures
When we further analyse the Primary ranges (144) on the DOW, we can see that price is supported from Friday's level @ 12294, and the expectation is that price should move upwards 144 points to 12421....
Currently price is trading below the 3-day 50% level@ 12402 and below next Week's 50% level @ 12399, which is a short-term bearish pattern, therefore it needs to complete the 144 range upwards to confirm price is back above both those levels. Once it is above that the expectation is the market is moving UP towards the 5-day highs.
A bearish pattern would be:- 144 points upwards and swings back down below both those levels breaking support... or trading below support
Weekly Chart:- S&P CASH
Range bound between Support and Resistance, and until price can close above the 3-week cycle highs (on Friday), then the trend remains down and expectation it will follow the April range lower.
Weekly and Daily charts:- E-mini Futures
Exact same pattern last Week:- Quarterly support, lower Weekly open and rising upwards from the Weekly 50% level.
Next Week's high probability pattern:- 2 -day reversal and expectation of the 3rd day rising using the Weekly 50% level @ 1354 as a trend guide.
Note: Monday will start a brand new Weekly timeframe and the expectation is that price is rising towards the 5-day highs but also major resistance. Resistance is valid until it's broken and there is the potential of that occurring.
However a bearish pattern would be an UP move on Monday, but a sell-off from a higher Tuesday open. If this occurs and breaks the Weekly 50% level on Tuesday then the expectation is a major move down into the Weekly lows @ 1315
E-mini intraday chart
Support:- Monday's Up move should be verified by Price rising upwards from 1347.
E-mini Range bar (Primary Range R14)
Expectation that the UP trend should continue towards the 5-day highs.
In Conclusion:-
The Analytical view of the market is valid until proven wrong or it changes.
The Analytical view of the market is range bound between Quarterly Support and Resistance until it's broken.
The Short-term view of the market has been modelled to move higher on Monday towards the 5-day highs, this is valid unless price is trading below 'support'.
A Monday that rises higher has a random length:- it might reach the 5-day highs or it might not, but it's not a 'shorting' day whilst trading above the Weekly 50% level
A Monday that rises higher is the start of a new Trading week with the potential that price could continue higher each day:- But that's not my Analytical view because of Quarterly resistance.
A 'shorting' day will be valid around higher timeframe resistance and a higher open on Tuesday, but that will need to be confirmed by price moving back under the Weekly 50% level. If that price action occurs then my Analytical view is price is moving back down into Weekly lows, and at a much faster rate than many would expect....
That entire walk-forward scenario is valid and can play out precisely until proven wrong, and that is simply going to be defined by price trading on the either side of dynamic timeframe levels (50%) and support/resistance....
"those who anticipate best will prosper"
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