S&P (e-mini ) 9 JAN 2010 Weekly
S&P Monthly
Shift in resistance in the 4th Quarter @ 1126 has pushed the S&P into the January highs 1142.
There is a possbile move towards 1177 in the first Quarter, however that might not happen until next month.
At this stage I'm treating 1142 as resistance.
Expectation that the S&P was heading back into the Weekly highs and then into the January highs has completed, whilst following the higher highs each day.
If there is going to be any reversal pattern next week using January highs as resistance (1142) the higher Monday open needs to have a reversal pattern and to be trading below the5-day 50% level as the first confirming tool (daily close)
The 2nd confirming pattern is a break of the Weekly 50% level @ 1127
Regardless of my view of whether I think 1142 is a top or not, I need to see lesser timeframe patterns to validate the trend and/or reversal of the trend.
I know my patterns extremely well, and I also know January can continue higher.
That's because the breakout of the Weekly highs this week 1133.
I would have preferred 1133 to stall price this week and then continue higher next week, as price would have remained within the Weekly channels, because a Weekly breakout of the highs can often continue to trend during the same month (January- February 1177)
Therefore I'm still expecting a short-term reversal pattern from these levels next week, but by Wednesday if price is still trading above 1133, the market during January looks well supported.
Below the Weekly 50% level will certainly validate my view.
Posted by
Frank Dilernia