S&P (e-mini ) 30th JAN 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly

Bearish pattern continues from the January highs, and expectation that the double monthly low in the first quarter will play out @ 1015-19 in February.

Around those levels are my robust support levels for the first Quarter in 2010.

The 2nd Quarter is a different matter, as each 3-month cycle needs to be viewed on it's own merit.

Weekly Timeframe

Based on the Weekly timeframe it might take 2-3 weeks until that occurs...

With the short-term 2-day counter-trend moves along the way.

Whilst below 1087, I can't have any other view than the trend is heading down towards 1015.

DOW S&P Futures 23rd Jan 2010 Weekly

"I'm extremely bearish on US markets over the next two weeks....

Little things can grow into big things and the current price action that is occurring in January is acting in a manner that often leads into big things. And so far the price action has been acting in an expectant manner."

Previous Weekly Report



DOW S&P Monthly

US markets complete the reversal pattern from January highs into the 50% levels.

I would expect some volatility around these levels for the next 5-days, but it doesn't mean that the trend is going to find support and begin the next move upwards.

That's about 5-days away.

DOW S&P Weekly

I'm expecting support around these lower levels, but probably remain range bound between the Weekly 50% level and lows over the next 5-days.

I do have a view of a larger trend reversal taking place in 2010 (further downside) , but in the short-term I have to treat the market as range bound over the next 5-days around support levels.

S&P (e-mini ) 16th JAN 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Last week's expectation was a short-term reversal pattern (2-day) at the start of the week and for price to remain above 1133.

I'm extremely bearish on US markets over the next two weeks, even though nothing has been validated to confirm my view.

The only thing that's in my favour is that price is trading around January's highs @ 1142 and the expectation is that price will rotate back down into the monthly 50% level @ 1087 by the end of the month.

My Hunch there could be a larger trend move downward (below 1087), but that's another story (Next Week's report)

Friday's reversal down from the highs and back into the lows (above the Weekly 50% levels) can be conflicting.

The price action on Friday if occurring anywhere else in the Secondary trends can often set-up further gains at the start of next week:- 5-day support and above the Weekly 50% levels and the continuation of the Trend (UP)

If the next session in the market closes higher, my view of the market going down could be wrong and the first Quarter follows the market towards 1177.

However, little things can grow into big things and the current price action that is occurring in January is acting in a manner that often leads into big things. And so far the price action has been acting in an expectant manner.

If the next session closes on its lows, but not necessarily below the Weekly 50% levels, then the next day might be the start of the market continuing down.

S&P (e-mini ) 9 JAN 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly

Shift in resistance in the 4th Quarter @ 1126 has pushed the S&P into the January highs 1142.

There is a possbile move towards 1177 in the first Quarter, however that might not happen until next month.

At this stage I'm treating 1142 as resistance.

S&P Weekly and Daily pattern

Expectation that the S&P was heading back into the Weekly highs and then into the January highs has completed, whilst following the higher highs each day.

If there is going to be any reversal pattern next week using January highs as resistance (1142) the higher Monday open needs to have a reversal pattern and to be trading below the5-day 50% level as the first confirming tool (daily close)

The 2nd confirming pattern is a break of the Weekly 50% level @ 1127

Regardless of my view of whether I think 1142 is a top or not, I need to see lesser timeframe patterns to validate the trend and/or reversal of the trend.

I know my patterns extremely well, and I also know January can continue higher.

That's because the breakout of the Weekly highs this week 1133.

I would have preferred 1133 to stall price this week and then continue higher next week, as price would have remained within the Weekly channels, because a Weekly breakout of the highs can often continue to trend during the same month (January- February 1177)

Therefore I'm still expecting a short-term reversal pattern from these levels next week, but by Wednesday if price is still trading above 1133, the market during January looks well supported.

Below the Weekly 50% level will certainly validate my view.

S&P (e-mini ) 2nd JAN 2010 Weekly

S&P 500

Patterns in 2009 were…

1st Quarter 'thrust' pattern down into the lows and the reversal pattern into the
2nd quarter 50% level.

The 3rd Quarter 'Thrust' pattern away from the 50% level.

The October highs in the 3rd quarter and reversal down into the November 50% levels....

And lastly the 2-month wave pattern upwards from the November 50% level and into 1126, completing the precise movements between the 2009 lows and 2009 highs.

2010 should be an interesting year.... asI'm looking for the market to make its way down towards the 50% levels.

The only way I can get bullish in 2010 is for the S&P to be consolidating above 1153, but for that to happen I would need to see price come down first before it can go higher.

This is because it will shift the market dynamics allowing resistance levels to move higher dynamically later in 2010. At this stage I'm treating those upper levels as resistance.

At the start of next week, we need to determine whether the market will continue higher, or the market is going to reverse down towards 1087.



S&P 500 Monthly and Weekly

Last week's reversal down from 1126-28 has moved back down into the Weekly 50% levels.

Therefore it's a simple case of trading on the side of 1108-1110.

Whilst the market is above those levels then the expectation is to move towards the Weekly highs, and then towards 1142-53 the following week.

Below 1108 and the market is heading towards a critical support level within the secondary cycle pattern:- 1084-87.