DOW S&P Weekly Report 30th August08

"US markets remain range bound trading below some major resistance levels :- June breakout and August 50% levels.

The expectation remains that price should hopefully complete the lower levels in this quarter before any 3-month counter-trend upwards begins...

4th Week:- last week of the month often starts the next trend, which
leads into the continuation of the trend in the following month, but who is not to say that next Week just continues higher...."

Previous Weekly Report

DOW and S&P Weekly

US markets remain in a sideways Weekly pattern below the Monthly 50% levels, and still remain below these levels with the 4th Week failing to breakout above....

I'm still bearish on Markets, as most robust counter-trend rallies begin from the Quarterly lows, and that isn't the case at this stage, even though July's lows were 'BUY' levels, but only towards the Monthly 50% levels and exit 'longs'.

DOW Daily

Monthly 50% levels have been resisting any further gains, but Price hasn't moved lower either, and that's best illustrated by the August balance points.

Price has been trading above the August balance points, which started with the 'pop' upwards at the beginning of August.

However, for the past 4 weeks US markets have remained range bound, which has resulted in ideal 2-day pattern swing trading using high probability set-ups within the 5-day pattern, as shown below.

S&P Weekly

The interesting part of the new month is the shift in the balance point in September....

If US markets are going to continue higher it should start with another 'pop' upwards in September and finally breakout.

If the trend is going to continue down, as part of my overall view, then the shift in time has resulted in a shift in Monthly support.....

Below September balance points in US markets, and things don't look so good, but it takes time to unwind.

If price is trading below the Setember balance points, it will be the 3rd week of the month which will take most of my interest. I'll come to that after the next 2 weeks of trading.

Contract expiry in September, which normally supports the market. Any weakness would be after contract expiry (3rd Week)

E-mini 5-day patterns

Last Week was ideal 5-day pattern swing trading....

Monday break of support and expectation of a 2-day down move into Tuesday.

Tuesday short the 50% level as part of the 2-day down move.

Wednesday look for an up move from support....

and Thursday and Friday weren't probability patterns but part of 5-day extension upwards from the 50% level and back down into support :- Sideways Weekly timeframes.....

Therefore:- September is all about the balance points, and at this stage it's an each way bet.

For Day and Swing traders, simply trade on the Yellow channel as it follows the 5-day pattern.

DOW S&P Weekly Report 23rd August 08

DOW S&P Weekly charts

US markets remain range bound trading below some major resistance levels :- June breakout and August 50% levels.

The expectation remains that price should hopefully complete the lower levels in this quarter before any 3-month counter-trend upwards begins...


DOW and S&P Daily charts


Everything about the past 3 weeks of trading set-up Friday as the
potential continuation of the down trend in US markets

From the 'pop' upwards at the start of August, the 2nd week's failure
to close higher on Friday above the August 50% levels, and then the
sell pattern this week and break below the Weekly 50% level this
week.

Even after Thursday's failure (2nd day stall) and no 'Hook' day above
the Weekly 50% level, Friday looked like a 'text book' Sell pattern.

S&P 5-day pattern

Break of support on Monday and trend continues down:- monthly 50% level rejection pattern...

Expectation on Wednesday that the US markets would move into a 2-day counter-trend move upwards...and with Thursday's failure to close above the Weekly 50% level, everthing looked perfect for the down trend to continue.

Expect Friday rallied off support and not break lower...

As a day-trader it doesn't really matter where the market goes:- simply trade the levels.

But as a swing trader on stocks over weeks and months, I was hoping
this was going to be the final drive down into 2008 lows before we finally
get a 3 month counter move upwards (as shown in the Weekly charts)

Friday's price action at this stage only leads me to think more sideways
price action, even though next week is the 4th Week :-

4th Week:- last week of the month often starts the next trend, which
leads into the continuation of the trend in the following month, but who is not to say that
next Week just continues higher....

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DOW S&P Weekly Report 16th August08

"I can see higher prices over the next two weeks:- but I would like to see a rotation down and test the Weekly 50% level early next week, and if that occurs then markets should continue higher into a higher close on Friday.

If that patterns play out but Friday can't remain above the monthly 50% levels, then it's beginning to look like these levels will be resistance and a 'sell' pattern could eventuate later this month..."

Previous Weekly Report

DOW and S&P Daily

This week played out precisely, with US markets reversing down into the Weekly 50% levels finding support and moving higher on Friday.

However, the concerning pattern was Friday's lack of buying power to close above the Monthly 50% level.

As mentioned in the previous Report, If Friday can't close above the monthly 50% levels on Friday it looks like the US markets could end up with a 'sell' pattern in the last week of August...

DOW and S&P Weekly charts

Often when markets breakout of the monthly channels they often come back and re-test the breakout and then continue with the overall trend. This is what's been happening in the US markets at the start of August, a re-test of the June breakout with the 'pop' pattern at the start of August.

So at this stage these upper levels are major resistance zones, but I would give it another another Week of trading to get a better idea on the trend in this quarter.

S&P Daily and 5-day pattern

As pointed out on Thursday:- trade longs above the blue channel, and then trade longs using Yellow support on Friday.

But like any previous 'BUY' pattern towards the 5-day highs, Friday failed to continue because of the monthly 50% levels resistance levels.

Next Week:- I won't have a view on US markets until the end of next Week.

Whilst price is trading above next week's 50% level price can follow the dynamic timeframes higher into next week's highs.

But a Weekly close below next week's 50% level and price begins to look like the 'sell' pattern at the end of August.

Day traders simply use the 5-day pattern levels, as per premium Report

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DOW S&P Weekly Report 9th August 2008

"If the market is going to rise higher and back towards the Monthly 50% level, then it's going to align with the start of August (SET-UP A)

If SET-UP A plays out then I'm looking for a move back down into the Yearly lows, but it might take a few weeks to unwind into a new down-trend."

26th July Weekly report

DOW and S&P Daily charts

US markets have continued higher at the start of August and have moved towards the monthly 50% levels, and Weekly highs.....

S&P 5-day pattern

The S&P and DOW 5-day patterns were very similar using the 5-day filtering techniques over the previous week, and with the expectation that markets would continue higher into Friday...

DOW & S&P Weekly charts

The August50% levels are major resistance zones, and I have modelled that there could be a reversal down towards August lows, as shown in the charts above.

However I don't think next week is simply going to be reversing down and into a 'blow' off bottom. Personally I would like that to happen because it's the pattern I have modellled for the markets to bottom out and move into a rotation back up towards the 3-month highs, as mentioned in last week's report. ....

"The Yearly lows in August-September.... once lows are reached it will align with a quarterly timeframe from October that could see the first major reversal back towards the 3-month highs in all global Index Markets"

As mentioned two weeks ago, any down move would have to unwind over the next couple of weeks, and if there is a continuation down it will probably occur in the last Week of the month.

Note:- it won't surprise me to see higher prices over the next two weeks:- but I would like to see a rotation down and test the Weekly 50% level early next week, and if that occurs then markets should continue higher into a higher close on Friday.

If that patterns play out but Friday can't remain above the monthly 50% levels, then it's beginning to look like these levels will be resistance and a 'sell' pattern could eventuate later this month...

For Day-traders and/or swings traders, it's once again using the 5-day pattern techniques when trading any moves next week.

S&P Weekly CASH

As illustrated at the start of July :- a bounce off these lows could see the S&P as high as 1329 this quarter, and if that's the case then next Week's 50% level is critical on the trend continuing higher.

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DOW S&P Report 2nd August 2008

DOW Cash Weekly chart

DOW should reach the Yearly lows in August-September.... once lows are reached it will align with a quarterly timeframe from October that could see the first major reversal back towards the 3-month highs in all global Index Markets.

S&P Cash Weekly chart

Same expectation in the S&P:- August-September lows should align with the Yearly lows.

DOW and S&P Weekly futures

June breakout down into the July lows, supporting the market, and now the expectation is that US markets are moving lower into August lows.

DOW Daily charts

Slight difference in the US markets compared to the Aussie Market.

Price needs to be trading below the mid-point in August @ 11267, to begin the next wave down towards the August lows.

DOW 5-day pattern

Basically you want to be trading on the right side of the blue channel on Monday.

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