S&P (e-mini ) 25th September 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Whilst above 1098.50 the trend bias is upwards during September, and this week has seen the market continue up into September’s highs, stall, drift back down and then swing back towards the Weekly highs on Friday.

There are two possible patterns based on the Quarterly target @ 1175-79.

Set-UP A: - Hits the September highs @ 1142-1144 and reverses down towards the October 50% level, and the trend then continues upwards in the 4th Quarter:- first target 1179

If Set-up A occurs then there is more probability that the trend can continue to rise upwards for the rest of 2010 :- 2 to 3 month up trend:- steady up trend


SET-UP B: - Doesn’t reverse down but continues to hit minor resistance levels @ 1142 & 1158, but then completes the move into 1179 in early October:- next 2 -weeks.

If this pattern occurs then there is more probability that price will reverse back down at the start of the 4th Quarter:- larger trend reversal and volatility

This is same pattern that occurred in January and April this year.


My preferred pattern is SET-UP A occurring, but after Friday's price action that might not be the case.

SET-UP A could be be verified by a Wednesday 'sell' pattern and price trading below 1129.75

S&P (e-mini ) 18th September 2010 Weekly

S&P Weekly

This week's expectation was for the trend to continue up into resistance levels based on the Weekly and Monthly highs.

Friday's reversal pattern has an expectation of further weakness early next week:-  2-day reversal

If price is below 1116, then the trend bias is down towards 1097.

Around 1098.50 remains a major trend guide for the 3rd Quarter.

Below 1097, and price is revisiting 1078.50 (September 50% level)

My view is that the S&P will move into a consolidating pattern until the start of the 4th Quarter. (drifting lower)

Note:- A 2-day reversal pattern next week could result in a 2-day 'stall' pattern.

If price continues to remain above 1116, then the trend bias is up towards 1141-1144 later in the Week.

S&P (e-mini ) 11th September 201o Weekly

Based on the current price action the trend looks to be moving up towards the September highs @ 1126, with minor resistance around 1115.

Last Week's Report

S&P 500 Weekly

Based on the current price action the market expectation is to continue towards the September highs- 1123- 1126

Those levels will be seen as resistance.

If that's the case we then begin to look for patterns in the 5-day range, and see if there is going to be a possible rotation back down towards the Weekly and monthly 50% levels @ 1078.50 

That will be verified by a 5-day low breakout and price trading below 1098.50- 1099

S&P (e-mini ) 4th September 201o Weekly

September 50% level starting next week is going to be the trend guide for the rest of the 3rd Quarter

Either price swings upwards and moves back towards 1128

or it follows the September 50% level rejection pattern, as part of the continuation of the trend being below 1098.50.

Previous Weekly report

                                                             S&P Weekly

The shift in market dynamics from August to September provided the impetus for the market to rally this week.

At the start of last week my view was to continue lower, especially when price move back below 1056 and started to move lower, as part of the trend being below the 1098.50 during the 3rd Quarter.

However, that changed on Wednesday with the cross over of the September 50% level and a breakout of the 5-day highs on Wednesday on the same day.

A breakout of the 5-day range will normally follow a break and extend pattern upwards on the next day (Thursday) and thereafter  continue into higher highs by Friday to 1098.50  to 1102

Based on the current price action the S&P and friday's close,  the trend looks to be moving up towards the September highs @ 1126, with minor resistance around 1115.