S&P Yearly, Quarterly and Monthly
S&P Trading around the 3-Quarterly 50% level and the MAY lows, and I expected a little more upside this week for a move towards the June 50% levels that begin next week.
As explained in last week's report there is a potential 2nd month down move in June from the monthly 50% levels, and some of the biggest sell-offs occur in the last month of the Quarter when price begins from the monthly 50% level.
3d Quarter 'thrust' pattern into the 2009 Yearly 50% level has completed from the March lows.
Any further UP moves would need to align with the 4th Quarter 50% level, and continue up from the 4th quarter 50% level and into the highs, which aligns with the Yearly 2010 highs.
If that happens then price can push back down into the Yearly 50% level in 2010 and consolidate for a number of Quarters during next year and move into a long-term sideways pattern until the 2nd half of 2010"...... Weekly report 15th August 2009
What happens if the S&P follows last year's forecast?
if the S&P 500 follows the same pattern and moves down into the 2010 50% level, that is 100 points lower or 1000 points in the DOW.
In conclusion:- It's too early to get comfortable with current support levels, as there are a couple of lesser timeframes that still have bearish patterns.
Note:- the Weekly timeframe will still remain within the MAY timeframe and won't begin until the week after, which may result in another 5-day sideways pattern
