S&P 500 Yearly Model2008 Yearly low breakout @ 1210.
Dilernia Principle:- Breakout of the timeframe and price moves to the extreme of the next timeframe
The extension down into 2009 lows should reach by March or early in the 2nd Quarter.
DOW Yearly ModelSeptember 2008 breakout which matched the 2008 Yearly low breakout @ 10400
We will be reaching the 2009 lows in March, But these won't be the lows for the Year, as there will be a lesser timeframe that extends slightly lower pushing the market below, as we can see in the 2nd forward timeframe (green channels)
DOW S&P Monthly modelBoth Markets are pushing down into their March lows
I would look for support around March lows, as they match the 2009 lows, looking for a swing back towards the Monthly 50% levels and 'stall'.
But it's still too early to tell whether lows in Marchwill be the lows for 2009, as the 2nd quarter from April will extend lower.
DOW S&P WeeklyNext Week:- Weekly and March lows will probably support the market for a number of days, as did the February lows until the Friday break.
In conclusion:- Once the 2009 lows are reached US markets will be nearing their lows of 2009
There will probably be a slight extension lower in the 2nd Quarter, but we are starting to get to the end of this down trending market in 2009
Once that occurs in the 2nd quarter, I'll be looking for a rounding bottom that will begin to make higher lows....
And the first sign will be price trading back above the Monthly 50% levels some time in the latter part of the 2nd quarter or the start of the 3rd Quarter of 2009.
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