DOW and ES-minis
Last weekly report my expectation was two fold, the market would consolidate above higher timeframe 50% levels. These were and are very valid support zones.
My second expectation was that if these levels broke this week the market would be on its way down into lower monthly-extended zones. This is a repeating pattern and a probability pattern.
Trading is simply about buying and selling support/resistance along with understanding that price has a certain trend it follows.
Sometimes during the trading week we all get the perfect trade because everything aligns with market dynamics, as was the case in the US selling the 5-day 50% levels and trading them down.
However, during the trading week not everyday is perfect and certain things need to happen before the trade eventuates and/or the Risk diminishes….
Weekly charts are showing the break, and this has continued down or continuing down into previous consolidating support.
For many these October levels might seem support, especially if there is a 2-3 day counter-trend move in the markets next week, but probability patterns often suggest that the price normally follows the model, so the expectation is that November lows are the target before any major rally or support is verified…
US markets continued down into the end of the trading week as they follow the market dynamics into November lows. This was confirmed with the break of the Weekly lows this week, and it was confirmed with Sell-offs from the 5 day 50% levels.
I do expect a 2-3 day rally upwards next week, but firstly I would like to see a test of the November and Weekly lows next week before a major counter-trend move upwards towards the weekly 50% levels.
The trend will probably continue down on Monday or hopefully it will so that these lows verify support, before there is a 2-3 day up move back towards the recent break.
The Weekly 50% level will define the trend, and we notice that both the break of this weeks lows matches next weeks 50% level.
I can’t see any major up move in November unless it moves down into November lows, as shown in the Weekly charts above...
Therefore the Weekly 50% levels next week are resistance zones for a continuation move down after any 2-3 day counter-trend UP move.
I do expect a 2-3 day rally upwards next week, but firstly I would like to see a test of the November and Weekly lows next week before a major counter-trend move upwards towards the weekly 50% levels.
The trend will probably continue down on Monday or hopefully it will so that these lows verify support, before there is a 2-3 day up move back towards the recent break.
The Weekly 50% level will define the trend, and we notice that both the break of this weeks lows matches next weeks 50% level.
I can’t see any major up move in November unless it moves down into November lows, as shown in the Weekly charts above...
Therefore the Weekly 50% levels next week are resistance zones for a continuation move down after any 2-3 day counter-trend UP move.
Premium daily report will follow on Monday.........
