S&P 500 Emini Futures 4th February 2019 Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

Too much economic good news coming out of the US  has seen the S&P 500 move higher along with  the Fed ceasing to raise interest rates, which started the initial sell off.

 Sadly, it didn't follow the 2nd wave pattern down into the 2019 lows for the best LONG set-up.

Weekly lows and 2019 50% level is seen as support, but it might move into a sideways pattern until late March before heading higher.

I've been Bullish on the stock market since 2016 lows for a move up to 2020-21, it's just trying to time the entry with Support.

I would be extremely surprised to see selliing hit the market otherthan short term down moves.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 6th January 2019 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

As I mentioned previously, there's a ton of good economic news coming out of the US, and last week's job numbers blew it out of the park.

 Manfucturing numbers are up, ecomonmy still strong, and the only thing that seems to spook the markets is, when the FED raises rates.

However, the Charts tell a different story. It's currently in a BEAR Cycle (below Yearly 50% level) with the expectation that the 2019 50% level @ 2956.50 will form resistance and price follows the BREAK & EXTEND pattern in the monthly cycles to 2295.

As we can see, the 2018 lows supported the Market in December and the 2019 @ 2295 lows might do the exact same in the first Quarter (double yearly low), which is a very similar pattern as in 2016.

This is theory should complete the Bear Cycle, as it's not a Crash.

If there is a Crash, the trend will go looking of the 100% range, which is 1962.50.

At this stage, I can't see this happening, unless it's trading below 2295 on bad economic news.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 23rd December 2018

 S&P 500 Primary & Secondary Cycles

As you know I've been bullish on the market with the caveat the Market could crash and head towards 100% of the range @2077-2060

We can see the change in the Quarterly cycles (50%) at the start of the 4th Quarter in October (left Chart) and it was always going to struggle to move back above the 2018 highs for the rest of November-December, as it needed to re-test support in December @ 2600

If the market was going to go higher, the weekly close on the previous Friday just couldn't close below the Support line @ 2600. Once that happend (confirmed breakout) it's now heading down towards the 100% of the range at 2077-2060.

If that happens, expect a decent DEAD cat bounce from around 2077, but with the expectation it will go looking for new lows in 2019 (Yearly Lows)

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1st December 2018

S&P Primary & Weekly Cycles

 I've been bullish on US markets with the expectation that the trend continues to move up into new highs until 2020-21.  

This is based on the 2016 lows and then the trend continuing higher using the Primary cycles for an initial two years (2018 highs) and up to 4/5 years.  (2020-21)

There's also a ton of good economic news coming out of the US that suggests the trend continue higher.

My expectation is...

1. A  move downward and another retest of the 2018 50% & November lows, more than likely next week.

The trend then can go higher (PREVIOUS REPORT)

From my previous post, there was some early weakness in November, but it didn't reach the November lows, instead we had buying into the Market, closing on its highs on the last day of the month, but right on the Monthly 50% level for December.

I still continue to be Bullish even though a lot of people are extremely bearish on markets, just read Zero Hedge.

The reason I'm bullish is, because I believe the NEW bull trend starting from the 2016 lows, whereas, most punters think the BULL TREND started in 2009 and has continued upwards ever since.

S&P MONTHLY CHARTS

The trend finished in 2015 and a new one started in 2016.

Historically, the 2016 lows will have a natural uptrend for 2 years (2018) and often the trend lasts 4-5 years. This is why I'm bullish until 2020-21, with an overall target of 100% of the Primary Range.

However, I'm always weary of Price trading below the 2019 50% level, which could see price move down 100% of the range

IVV.AX Primary Cycles

When we look at the Exchange Traded Fund IVV, we notice price is trading above the 2018 highs.

If the Exchange Traded Fund is above the 2018 highs, then the expectation is that Price is in a BREAK & EXTEND pattern and it should continue to move higher in 2019.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 4th November 2018

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

As you know I've been bullish on US markets with the expectation that the trends continue to move up into new highs until 2020-21.  

This is based on the 2016 lows and then the trend continuing higher using the Primary cycles for an initial two years (2018 highs) and up to 4/5 years.  (2020-21)

There's also a ton of good economic news coming out of the US that suggests the trend continue higher.

However, when we're looking at the Primary Cycles this trend can quickly change to the downside.

My expectation is...

1. A  move downward and another retest of the 2018 50% & November lows, more than likely next week.

The trend then can go higher with the news that the Republicans take the House & Senate.

2. Market flat-lines into the end of the year and then the Bear market follows the Primary Cycle in 2019 and moves down to 100% of the range, as the first move.

3. Worse case scenario, 'Crash in 2018 to 100% of the range to 2060

S&P500 E-mini Futures 29th October 2018

S&P 500 Primary Cycles

As a continuation from the previous post, the S&P 500 has struggled to move back above 2824 and is selling off into the close of the month.

I still continue to be Bullish, and if I'm correct it should find support around the 2018 50% level, the November lows (NEXT WEEK) and then move up into new highs into 2020.

However, if I'm wrong and we can see the 2019 50% level is now above price (BEARISH)  the

 S&P 500 will go looking for a 50% retracement towards 2060.

A 'Crash', as many are calling will often go looking for a 50%  retracement - 2060 is the target.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 13th October 2018

S&P Primary & Weekly Cycles

Break of Support levels (Weekly lows) and the market shot straight down into its 3-month lows, which is the exact same pattern as Febraury earlier this year.

I'm still remain bullish up towards 2020-21 based on the patterns within  the Primary Cycles.

However, it might struggle to get back above the Yearly highs @ 2824 & October 50% level @ 2854 for the rest of this month and most of November.