DOW S&P 20th March 2010 Weekly

DOW S&P Weekly


Last Week we had the same short-term sell pattern on Friday, but this time it's matched with the March Highs @ 10725 in the DOW.

The DOW has been lagging the S&P in market dynamics, and the same thing occurred around January's highs. S&P hangs around the highs and waits until the DOW catches up and then they proceed to rotate back down into monthly 50% levels.

Once again i'll start next week with the expectation of a short-term reversal pattern and then see how it reacts to the Weekly 50% level.

However, I’m not expecting the same swift reversal as in January/February, but I would like to see some short–term pullback into higher timeframe 50% levels before the continuation of the UP trends in the 2nd Quarter.

DOW S&P 5-day pattern

As mentioned in Friday's report..." Ideally the best reversal trends align with Friday's highs and higher timeframe levels, but I'm not sure if Friday's highs will be reached.

It didn't align with the S&P but it did on the DOW, and because it's a Friday high I would begin to look for a continuation of the trend down (2-days).

How did I trade Friday?

I personally don't want to be up a night trading the US markets, so I'm confident in using the levels and place limit trades.

I went short on the DOW @ 10724 and 10750 and partial exit @ 10668 (and holding).

I went long on the S&P @ 1160. 25 looking for a 8 point UP move into Friday's highs...

I also placed short trades @ 1168.50 and 1177.

Basically I didn't want miss any potential reversal on Friday, but I also knew that the S&P could have continued into the Friday highs and Weekly highs:- 8.5 point up move

S&P continued higher but only until the DOW reached the Friday highs.

Stopped out on S&P @ 1158 (didn't get filled on shorts)

And DOW followed the reversal pattern and expectation the trend will continue towards the Weekly 50% level.

DOW Quarterly and Yearly

Our upside targets in the DOW for 2010 :- 11157- 11637

S&P Targets 1200- 1255

In conclusion:-

Any potential short-term reversal from March highs is part of a larger trend move towards those Yearly highs in the 2nd Quarter.

S&P (e-mini ) 13th March 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Resistance on the S&P 1152 & 1159...

I'd be surprised to see the S&P higher than 1159 this month" ... Thursday's report

S&P has completed the move into the March highs and I would begin tolook for a short-term pullback towards the higher timeframe 50% levelsfrom next week.

I'm favouring higher prices in the 2nd Quarter, but because of Friday's spike into 1159 and the Weekly close below 1152,

I feel the 'top' in March has been reached and a rotation pattern will begin.

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

With Friday's pattern I would begin to look for a 2-day pullback towards the Weekly 50% level @ 1131.

Next week we are trading June contracts and June is opening below support levels on Monday (yellow) with an expectation that price is moving down towards the 5-day lows that match the weekly 50% level.

Any UP trend will continue up from the Weekly 50% level, but that needs to be verified only after the 2-day reversal completes.

If Tuesday breaks support (Weekly 50% level) then we begin to focus on the Monthly 50% levels as a pullback.

S&P (e-mini ) 6 March 2010 March

S&P Monthly & Weekly

S&P completes the move into the February highs and will probably continue higher next week into the March highs.

Those March highs will complete a double monthly high pattern in the first Quarter, which in theory should be the top of the first Quarter.

The most robust patterns to be trading longs would be to see price come back down into the 3-month 50% levels in the 2nd Quarter and the upside targets will be the 3-Quarter highs in the 2nd Quarter.

There is a breakout of the Weekly highs @ 1121, which should extend upwards early next week (also 5-day high breakout). into 1148

Because of the 3-week breakout and the 3-week 50% level (green), at this stage I don't think the Month of March is going to be spending much time below those levels.

What we need to keep an eye on is how the S&P responds to 1148-52, because this will complete a break and extend pattern in the Weekly timeframe, and I would normally look for a retest of the break @ 1116-1121.

S&P (e-mini ) 27th FEB 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

There's not much to say other than I think the S&P and the DOW are heading higher in March.

There is nothing on the horizon that suggests further weakness other than short-term sell patterns of 1-2 days

The support levels are the Weekly 50% levels & the March 50% level @ 1098 next Week

Random resistance levels will be the weekly highs @ 1121 & 1132, with a view that price could reach the March highs by the end of the Quarter

S&P (e-mini ) 20th FEB 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Last Week saw the Weekly 50% level support price and push upwards into a higher Friday close, which also closed above the 3-week cycles.

This pattern is bullish and confirms my view of higher prices in February, with next week's target the Weekly highs.

However, Friday stalled below the highs on Friday, which often leads to a 2-day reversal at the start of the week.

That can be a reversal down into Tuesday's 5-day lows

or it can be a 2-day stall and then a continuation upwards from the brown Weekly 50% level.

Personally I would like to see a move down into Tuesday's lows because then there are more gains on the upside.

DOW S&P Futures 13 FEB 2010 Weekly

DOW S&P Monthly

US markets are trading around the higher timeframe 50% levels.

It's not rising up from support levels, and Friday's price action has failed to make a clean break.

Based on the current price action I would have to treat next week as another consolidating 5-day pattern.

Another Week will bring the 3-week highs down and will match the the recent highs from 2-weeks ago.

If US markets are going to move higher then it will break out of the 3-week highs and see further gains in March.

If US markets are going to go lower, then once the 3-week highs catch up, the trend will push down towards the 3-Quarterly 50% level in March.

DOW S&P Weekly

Last week I expected a 2-day counter-trend move up into resistance levels.

Once Wednesday failed to continue down it looked like this week was going to be a 5-day sideways pattern with the potential of a late rise on Friday.

However, Friday failed to break key levels.

Therefore I'm treating next week as another sideways price pattern, and resistance on the S&P at 1087.

And the Weekly highs are resistance if there is a push upwards next week if the weekly 50% levels holds support.

S&P (e-mini ) 6 FEB 2010 Weekly

S&P 500

Last week started with the short-term counter trend move upwards (2-3 days) and then the trend continued down into the Weekly lows.

Expectation that price is heading down into the February lows, with matching Weekly lows.

There are two possible patterns for next week...

1. Continues down on Monday and Tuesday to complete the February lows.

2. My preferred pattern is....

A move upwards into the 50% levels in February and then a blow off bottom into February targets.

This will complete my move for the first quarter from the highs in January and into support levels in February, and I would like to guess that the first Quarter will stabilise and move into consolidating pattern.