S&P 500 E-mini Futures 6th December 2020

 

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

Bang came the Vaccine news the day after the election and off she went.  

Mostly likely to continue towards the 2021 highs in the 1st Quarter.

However, I'm not so sure it's going to going much higher than the 4th Quarter highs around 3775 in December

S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES - US STOCK MARKET 1ST NOVEMBER 2020

 

S&P 500 PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

COMING DOWN FROM THE 2020 HIGHS AND MOVING DOWN INTO THE NOVEMBER LOWS @3110

THE NOVEMBER 50% LEVEL MATCHES THE YEARLY HIGHS, SO THESE LEVELS ARE SEEN AS RESISTANCE - 3349-77 (EARLY NEXT WEEK)

WHO WINS THE ELECTION WILL DEFINE THE TREND.

A TRUMP WIN AND I'M SURE THE NOVEMBER LOWS WILL HOLD AT 3110 AND SWING BACK UP, POTENTIALLY GOING TO THE 2021 HIGHS IN THE 1ST QUARTER OF 2021

A BIDEN WIN HAS A LOT OF NEGATIVE POTENTIALS - RAISING TAXES / SHUTTING THE ECONOMY - BAD NEWS FOR THE MARKETS.

 BACK TO 3007

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 3rd October 2020

 

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

With Trump going into Hospital with Covid-19 after Future Markets closed, it will be an interesting on open next week, and enough to spook the markets driving prices lower.

Looking at the price action, as it's also back under the 2020 highs of 3377,

I can only see weakness down into the October lows, matching the 50% level in the 4th Quarter at 3035. (SUPPORT)

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 4th September 2020

S&P 500 Emini Futures - Primary & Weekly Cycles

Reached the 2020 highs - Double Top??

it could push up into the August highs at 3420

Any validation of selling will be confirmed with a 5-day low breakout

1st Target  September 50% (Previous Report)

S&P 500 followed the Secondary Cycles into the 3rd Quarter highs at 3542.

The 5-day low validation breakout occurred yesterday @ 3484

There could be a swing upwards from 3429 back towards the 50% level of the 5-day range, but my view is that it's moving down towards the September 50% level and Weekly lows at 3330

A Market Crash will see it back down to 2900 in this same Month, and then the 50% level in the 4th Quarter & Yearly 50% level will define if there's more selling .

However, will there be a TRUMP rally?

The September 50% level supports prices and then the market moves towards the 4th Quarter highs by December 3811+

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 16th August 2020 Report

 

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

Reached the 2020 highs - Double Top??

However, it could push up into the August highs at 3420

• Any validation of selling will be confirmed with a 5-day low breakout
• Any further weakness will be a break of the Weekly lows

1st Target August 50% level/ September 50%

#e-mini #S&P500

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1st August 2020

S&P Primary & Weekly Cycles

S&P 500 looking to continue higher into the 2020 highs (Double Top)  and as high as August 3423

Random resistance around the Weekly highs at 3324

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 29th June 2020 Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

S&P 500 Supported right on the 2020 50% level at 3007

If looking for a Short, the Weekly 50% level from the 1st of July at 3065 is worth a shot.

If it breaks the July 50% level and Weekly lows, Sellers will HIT the S&P sending it back down into 2637

Bullish pattern would be a move down into the July 50% level, consolidate for 5 days and then break the 5-day highs the following week, as it goes looking for the JULY & 3 Quarter highs

NOTE - there are 3 support zones (Weekly lows, JUNE LOWS, July 50% level)

It's either Robust Support, or a valid break.

What it does, BITCOIN will follow

S&P 500 - Emini Futures 13th June 2020

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

Next week's Weekly highs at 3153 will be a massive resistance level to begin with, and if it does go as high as 3153, there will be lot of shorter's trying to push it back down into 3007 and the Yearly 50% level.

It will be the week after next that we decide if S&P 500 is back into a BULL MARKET Trend (above 50% level)  - previous report

We saw a lot of selling this week, but not enough to turn us into Bears, even though the economy is awash with extremely negative news

Unless it's below 3007 the bias is up towards the 2020 highs, which matched the 3 month highs in July.

Do I want to be BUYing the market here?

Not really, because it can turn quickly and be back down to the 2020 lows at 2637 in a blink of an eye.

S&P 500 Emini Futures 30th MAY 2020 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

What could happen is, if price moves down into those weekly lows, but moves back above the MAY 50% level (Yellow), US markets might actually move up towards the 2020 50% level at 3007.

Therefore, There are probably a lot of traders SHORTING US markets now, and as much as I agree with them, they could end up getting squeezed on the upside if that plays out. (previous Report)

Can the S&P 500 actually go as high at the JUNE highs at 3380?

Next week's Weekly highs at 3153 will be a massive resistance level to begin with, and if it does go as high as 3153, there will be lot of shorter's trying to push it back down into 3007 and the Yearly 50% level.

It will be the week after next that we decide if S&P 500 is back into a BULL MARKET Trend (above 50% level)

Or the market begins to position itself coming into the end of the 2nd Quarter and the start of the 3rd Quarter, which is what I always believed was when the next round of selling will occur, but it needs to be below 3007

S&P 500 E-mini futures 2nd MAY 2020

S&P 500 - Emini (Primary & Weekly Cycles)

The Aussie Market looks like it's in a classic bear market set-up for more weakness, US markets not so much.

As much as I'm extremely bearish in the overall trend within the Primary cycles for more weakness into 2021, along with the Fundamentals supporting my view, the 2nd Quarter could actually continue to support the trend and not follow the Break and Extend pattern into the MAY lows but move higher.

US markets are still above the monthly 50% levels and there's a convergence of the Weekly channels, which normally signifies a breakout, therefore it needs to close below the Weekly lows to gather pace @ 2697

What could happen is, if price moves down into those weekly lows, but moves back above the MAY 50% level (Yellow), US markets might actually move up towards the 2020 50% level at 3007.

Therefore, There are probably a lot of traders SHORTING US markets now, and as much as I agree with them, they could end up getting squeezed on the upside if that plays out.

We then look towards the 3rd Quarter onwards, with 3007 being a major resistance zone.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 19th April 2020

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

We've seen the S&P 500 push up into the previous break in the Secondary Cycle at 2861.

With the amount of extremely negative fundamentals in the economy, I'm surprised it didn't sell down from the 50% level, instead of going up.

Can it go up higher?

It can go to the 50% level of 2020 at 3007.

What does this mean?

It means, then even though I'm extremely bearish, It actually might find support around the 2020 lows @2637 for the next 3 months.

S&P 500 Emini Futures 12th April 2020

S&P Primary & Weekly Cycles

As mentioned week's ago, retrace of the 50% of the range from the 100% lows in 2020

Thursday's close is exactly the 50% level @ 2785.75% of the range from the 2020 highs and the lows.

It could push up a bit more into 2861, however, everything around these levels are high risk on Longs.

The ideal pattern is a major sell down into the MAY lows.

Another bounce into higher highs, and then it all goes to shite in 2021.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 8th April 2020

S&P Primary & Weekly Cycles.

As I mentioned a numbers of Weeks ago, the S&P would swing up from the 100% lows in the Primary cycles and move towards the 50% level of the range between the 2020 highs and 2020 lows.

We saw the S&P hit and reach the Weekly highs and also retest the March low breakout @2743, which is what often happens in Bear markets - retest the breakout before it continues lower.

As you know I'm extremely bearish after this retracement,  but it won't surprise me if it takes a number of weeks to unwind.

That bearish sentiment can easily change, once governments start to re-open the economy, but technically it's down into 2021.

S&P 500 Emini Futures 5th April 2020

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

There are so many resistance levels in the Above charts, that I can't see the S&P 500 going higher than 2770 (Weekly highs 2735)

Even though I'm expecting lower lows in 2021,  Markets could remain range bound between the 100% lows around 2160/2267  & 2743/70 for the next 6 months.

Nothing has really changed since me previous post.

It just looks range bound for a few months and with the expectation it's going to lower in 2021.

However, there is still the possibility that it does move up to 2770 before going lower

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1st April 2020

S&P 500 Primary Cycles

We can see the Monthly Charts on the left and the Weekly Charts on the right.

You will notice that the levels don't match exactly, that's because the Weekly close doesn't happen until the end of the week, which confirms the levels.

For example, Today we start the new month of April, but in the Weekly charts, April won't start until next week, therefore there can be a lag of 3-5 days before the next move.

We can see that the S&P 500 has stalled below the 2020 lows @ 2637.

S&P 500 Weekly & Daily Charts.

History suggests declines on average in the next two trading sessions after such a big move but then over subsequent six weeks equities offer cumulative returns of up to 6% on average. Previous Report

 I would begin to look for a counter-trend rally upwards, from 2160 and as high as 2770 (50% of the range from highs) (9 days ago)

There are so many resistance levels in the Above charts, that I can't see the S&P 500 going higher than 2770 (Weekly highs 2774)

March lows 2743  April 50% level @ 2704

Even though I'm expecting lower lows in 2021,  Markets could remain range bound between the 100% lows around 2160/2267  & 2743/70 for the next 6 months.

S&P 500 EMINI FUTURES 28TH MARCH 2020 REPORT

E-MINI FUTURES PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

I would begin to look for a counter-trend rally upwards, from 2160 towards 2641 and as high as 2770 (50% of the range from highs)

Once than happens, then I will be looking for the next sell off, as it begins a trending period towards new lows in 2021 (long term buys)

We've seen a major counter-trend rally this week from 2174, stalling at 2617.

2770 is approx 50% of the range, but I'm having a hard time seeing it break 2743, the March lows

(random resistance 2697)

I still believe there will be a massive sell-off from the 3rd Quarter & 4th into new lows in 2021.

Let's look at some history....

Thursday's close in S&P 500 marked a 17.6% gain in three trading session something we haven't observed since the 1930s in a testimony to how volatile markets have become during this COVID-19 outbreak. We have looked at previous big moves and what S&P 500 did subsequently. History suggests declines on average in the next two trading sessions after such a big move but then over subsequent six weeks equities offer cumulative returns of up to 6% on average. Over a three-month horizon the outcome range is massive so investors should be careful about taking bold positions.

Thursday's close in the S&P 500 Index marked a 17.6% gain in three trading session turning it into the 6th biggest such move since early 1928. With aggressive policy moves and a period of optimism it’s worth pondering where equities will go from here.

The big upward move in S&P 500 contains information of confidence just as big moves contain information about panic and despair. But is a big move an indication of further gains? To get enough samples to conclude anything we analyzed all future paths in S&P 500 over three months following a 10% gain or more in three trading days. There has been 36 cases of the S&P 500 Index moving this much since early 1928. We find 32 of these observations in the period 1929 to 1939 and the remaining four observations during 2008-2009.

The numbers suggest mean reversion on average, that’s lower equities, in the first two trading days following such a big move up in equities. Six weeks out we observe more path leading to gains and on average 6% gains over six weeks. Over a three month horizon there are as many profitable as unprofitable paths but the distribution of cumulative returns are skewed towards positive returns.

The biggest 63-day trading day return is 74.4% and the biggest negative return is -36.8%. So history is telling investors that such as big move is succeeded by an extreme range in outcomes.

This means that investors that put on long positions here will have to actively manage the position unless they are willing to accept a potential 36% drawdown from yesterday’s close.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 21st March 2020

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Primary & Weekly Cycles

 We're in a 2 year BEAR market, that often sees extensions towards the 100% range at 2160 (previous Reports)

Didn't reach resistance levels from the March low breakout at 2745, but the Market is heading down into 2160.
 It shouldn't spend too much time below 2160 over the next 3-months.

I would begin to look for a counter-trend rally upwards, from 2160 towards 2641 and as high as 2770 (50% of the range from highs)

Once than happens, then I will be looking for the next sell off, as it begins a trending period towards new lows in 2021 (long term buys)

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 14th March 2020

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

That was a wild ride this week, but has all the negative news now been factored into the Market?

Primary lows for 2020 are currently supporting the market.

2617 is once again seen as a random support zone.

random resistance zones are around the March lows @ 2745

Resistance 2820

Long terms 2 year down trend towards 2160

(READ AUS MARKET REPORT)

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 10th March 2020 Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

If we look at the Weekly Cycles, there's a break and extend patterns that could see price move down into the March and weekly lows @ 2743-2761  And as low as 2617

However, the 2020 50% level at 2976 might not allow that to happen.

Resistance the March 50% level and also the 5-day highs (Previous Report)

TEXT Book Patterns in the S&P 500...

Support at the 2020 50% level, counter-trend rally into the 5-day highs and then the next push down from the MARCH 50% level towards 2617

There's more weakness to come.

Random support 2617, which could see another counter-trend move back towards the 2020 50% level (Major Resistance) on any stimulus announcement.

However, we're in a 2 year BEAR market, that often sees extensions towards the 100% range at 2160 

S&P 500 Emini Futures 29th February Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

Since the 2016 lows, I've been saying Up & Up & Up until the 2020 Highs to complete the 4 year cycle.

Once it reach those highs, I said SELL and get out!

2020 highs - I would think there would be a lot of downside to follow, after it's 4 year trending period from the 2016 lows.

Therefore the February 50% level is a random support zone for a potential move upwards.

YEARLY 50%  @  2976 IS SUPPORT FOR THE FIRST TWO QUARTERS (previous Report)

In 2018 we had similar price action - 2018 highs, back into the 2018 50% level and then more upside, because the trend expectation was for more gains into 2020

Even though the 2020 50% is currently supporting the market now, I don't think it's the same as 2018.

It might support it for a number of weeks, but I think we are looking for more weakness in the 2nd half of the year and into 2021 lows.

If we look at the Weekly Cycles, there's a break and extend patterns that could see price move down into the March and weekly lows @ 2743-2761  And as low as 2617

However, the 2020 50% level at 2976 might not allow that to happen.

Resistance the March 50% level and also the 5-day highs

S&P 500 Emini Futures 2nd February 2020 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Monthly & Weekly cycles

The S&P 500 fell short of reaching the 2020 highs in January. 

If it did, I would think there would be a lot of downside to follow, after it's 4 year trending period from the 2016 lows.

Therefore the February 50% level is a random support zone for a potential move upwards.

However, the Australian Market can often foretell or forewarn price action in the S&P 500 and if you look at the Australian Market, this has completed the 4 year cycle highs in January.

Don't trade longs below the February 50% level 3199, which could see further weakness if the Coronaviras continues to spread.

YEARLY 50%  @  2976 IS SUPPORT FOR THE FIRST TWO QUARTERS

Better opportunties in Crypto

S&P 500 E-MINI FUTURES 4TH JANUARY 2020 MONTHLY REPORT

S&P 500 PRIMARY & WEEKLY CYCLES

There's an expectation that the Market will continue towards to 2020 highs.

This will complete the 4 year cycle from the 2016 double yearly lows

With the tensions between IRAN and the Trump administration, markets  could easily end back down into the 2020 50% level. (Confirmed with a breakout of the Weekly lows @ 3183

First target January 50% level @ 3115

Then 2976

However, most often that not, US markets continue to move higher in January.