S&P 500 E-mini Futures 23rd December 2018

 S&P 500 Primary & Secondary Cycles

As you know I've been bullish on the market with the caveat the Market could crash and head towards 100% of the range @2077-2060

We can see the change in the Quarterly cycles (50%) at the start of the 4th Quarter in October (left Chart) and it was always going to struggle to move back above the 2018 highs for the rest of November-December, as it needed to re-test support in December @ 2600

If the market was going to go higher, the weekly close on the previous Friday just couldn't close below the Support line @ 2600. Once that happend (confirmed breakout) it's now heading down towards the 100% of the range at 2077-2060.

If that happens, expect a decent DEAD cat bounce from around 2077, but with the expectation it will go looking for new lows in 2019 (Yearly Lows)

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1st December 2018

S&P Primary & Weekly Cycles

 I've been bullish on US markets with the expectation that the trend continues to move up into new highs until 2020-21.  

This is based on the 2016 lows and then the trend continuing higher using the Primary cycles for an initial two years (2018 highs) and up to 4/5 years.  (2020-21)

There's also a ton of good economic news coming out of the US that suggests the trend continue higher.

My expectation is...

1. A  move downward and another retest of the 2018 50% & November lows, more than likely next week.

The trend then can go higher (PREVIOUS REPORT)

From my previous post, there was some early weakness in November, but it didn't reach the November lows, instead we had buying into the Market, closing on its highs on the last day of the month, but right on the Monthly 50% level for December.

I still continue to be Bullish even though a lot of people are extremely bearish on markets, just read Zero Hedge.

The reason I'm bullish is, because I believe the NEW bull trend starting from the 2016 lows, whereas, most punters think the BULL TREND started in 2009 and has continued upwards ever since.

S&P MONTHLY CHARTS

The trend finished in 2015 and a new one started in 2016.

Historically, the 2016 lows will have a natural uptrend for 2 years (2018) and often the trend lasts 4-5 years. This is why I'm bullish until 2020-21, with an overall target of 100% of the Primary Range.

However, I'm always weary of Price trading below the 2019 50% level, which could see price move down 100% of the range

IVV.AX Primary Cycles

When we look at the Exchange Traded Fund IVV, we notice price is trading above the 2018 highs.

If the Exchange Traded Fund is above the 2018 highs, then the expectation is that Price is in a BREAK & EXTEND pattern and it should continue to move higher in 2019.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 4th November 2018

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

As you know I've been bullish on US markets with the expectation that the trends continue to move up into new highs until 2020-21.  

This is based on the 2016 lows and then the trend continuing higher using the Primary cycles for an initial two years (2018 highs) and up to 4/5 years.  (2020-21)

There's also a ton of good economic news coming out of the US that suggests the trend continue higher.

However, when we're looking at the Primary Cycles this trend can quickly change to the downside.

My expectation is...

1. A  move downward and another retest of the 2018 50% & November lows, more than likely next week.

The trend then can go higher with the news that the Republicans take the House & Senate.

2. Market flat-lines into the end of the year and then the Bear market follows the Primary Cycle in 2019 and moves down to 100% of the range, as the first move.

3. Worse case scenario, 'Crash in 2018 to 100% of the range to 2060

S&P500 E-mini Futures 29th October 2018

S&P 500 Primary Cycles

As a continuation from the previous post, the S&P 500 has struggled to move back above 2824 and is selling off into the close of the month.

I still continue to be Bullish, and if I'm correct it should find support around the 2018 50% level, the November lows (NEXT WEEK) and then move up into new highs into 2020.

However, if I'm wrong and we can see the 2019 50% level is now above price (BEARISH)  the

 S&P 500 will go looking for a 50% retracement towards 2060.

A 'Crash', as many are calling will often go looking for a 50%  retracement - 2060 is the target.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 13th October 2018

S&P Primary & Weekly Cycles

Break of Support levels (Weekly lows) and the market shot straight down into its 3-month lows, which is the exact same pattern as Febraury earlier this year.

I'm still remain bullish up towards 2020-21 based on the patterns within  the Primary Cycles.

However, it might struggle to get back above the Yearly highs @ 2824 & October 50% level @ 2854 for the rest of this month and most of November.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1st October 2018 Monthly Report

Primary & Weekly Cycles

Target remains 3076

Currently breaking out of the Yearly highs, so there's an expectation that the trend will continue higher

October Support - 2875

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 3rd September 2019 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

Target remains 3076

Trailing support - 2834-37

If any when it gets to 3076, lighten up, and look to get back into Support levels.

Expectation trend is still going higher into 2020-21

S&P 500 - Emini futures - 5th August 2018 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly cycles

Still Bullish for a couple more years - Target - 3076

A few minor resistance points in August - @ 2883 & August highs.

Trend remains up, as long as it remains above the Weekly lows @ 2804 in August.

Long term Support @ 2743 (monthly levels)

S&P 500 Chart

         Obama v Trump – Stock Market analysis

·         Obama is elected and market drops 27%

·         Takes 9 months to get back to the level when Obama was first elected

·         Takes 5 years to get back to Bush’s highs

·         Obama’s market is 33% from when it takes out the old highs and to when trump is elected.

·         Trump is elected and market rallies

·         First 9 months and it has risen 16%

·         First 20 months and it has risen 35%

And there’s still more upside to go…

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1st July 2018 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

Still Bullish on the markets until 2020-21.

However, if you read the Financial news on Trump's tariffs and Zero Hedge, you would think the markets are going to collapse. Let's see how things play out....

SUPPORT

2677

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 3rd June 2018 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

I'm still bullish for a couple more years until about 2020/21, so we now begin to validate this reversal by using the Weekly lows as a target and support.

These lows will creep upwards over the next couple of weeks and if the market is going to go higher then we should see less volatility.

Ideal support zone resides in the Monthly cycles (Yellow), 

The market remains above the Yearly 50% level. Expectation US markets will  continue higher (Previous Report) 

If US markets are going to push higher for the rest of this quarter, instead of the usual weakness most people expect in MAY-June,  then the monthly cycles in Yellow @ 2677 is our support zone

This also aligns with the Weekly lows & June 50% level @ 2688

Don't trade longs below 2677

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 6th MAY 2018 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

I'm still bullish for a couple more years until about 2020/21, so we now begin to validate this reversal by using the Weekly lows as a target and support.

These lows will creep upwards over the next couple of weeks and if the market is going to go higher then we should see less volatility in the later half March and the start of April.

Ideal support zone resides in the Monthly cycles (Yellow), so April level is what we would like to keep an eye on.  

The market remains above the Yearly 50% level.

Expectation US markets will  continue higher, with the Yearly 50% level & 2571 as major support

S&P 500 E-mini futures. Monthly Report 3rd April 2018

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

I'm still bullish for a couple more years until about 2020/21, so we now begin to validate this reversal by using the Weekly lows as a target and support.

These lows will creep upwards over the next couple of weeks and if the market is going to go higher then we should see less volatility in the later half March and the start of April.

Ideal support zone resides in the Monthly cycles (Yellow), so April level is what we would like to keep an eye on.  (previous Report)

TRUMP'S trade wars are putting major pressure on global Primary Stock Market Trends.

However, as noted in the previous Report, This April Monthly Cycle is what we need to see hold this week and then for the market to rise later this week and continue higher the next.

The market remains above the Yearly 50% level.

Major Support - 2546

S&P 500 E-mini Futures monthly report 7th March 2018

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

a reversal Primary trend from a completion pattern (BREAK & EXTEND) can often go looking for it's 50% level, and that 50% level is a lot further down @ 2575 (Previous Report)

The US Markets full-filled it's Primary Cycle reversal into Support (Yearly 50% level).

I'm still bullish for a couple more years until about 2020/21, so we now begin to validate this reversal by using the Weekly lows as a target and support.

These lows will creep upwards over the next couple of weeks and if the market is going to go higher then we should see less volatility in the later half March and the start of April.

Ideal support zone resides in the Monthly cycles (Yellow), so April level is what we would like to keep an eye on.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 4th February 2018 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles.

The S&P 500 has completed the Primary Cycle break and Extend pattern from the 2017 highs and into the 2018, as described in my books.

Everything is driven by the Primary cycle. Understand the Primary Cycle and you're well onto you way of doing extremely well in the market.

Now I believe the Stock Market is still in a Primary Bull trend that's going to last a few more years, so we still want to BUY the dips. 

That Monthly BUY zone is 2703.

However, BUY zones become far more riskier if it's going against the Primary Trend

Therefore you want to see a 5-day pattern come down into 2703 and then the following week begin to rise up during the following 5-day pattern (read the book)

Because a reversal Primary trend from a completion pattern (BREAK & EXTEND) can often go looking for it's 50% level, and that 50% level is a lot further down @ 2575

The known pattern of Buying monthly support resides at 2703, but the risk has increased because of the Primary Cycle

S&P 500 E-mini futures 6th January 2018

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly cycles

Ideally we would like to see the market move down before it continues higher into the end of the year and follow the new Primary cycle highs in 2018.

BUY the DIPS! (previous report)

The Market rallied into the close of 2017 and heading higher in 2018, but it just didn't hit the BUY the DIP zone (yellow@ 2537) that has been so good to us throughout 2016 & 2017.

As we can see in the above chart, it's heading up towards the 2018 highs and my best guess beyond that later in the Year and into 2019.

Therefore we once again WANT to BUY the dips before it gets to that high early in 2018.

Note: Keep an eye on a break of the weekly lows for short-term weakness