S&P 500 E-mini Futures 5th December 2016

Primary & Weekly Cycles

 I continue to be bullish no matter who wins the Election on Tuesday, which is part of the 2016 lows and expectation the trend is heading towards the 2017 highs.

Therefore the November lows and the 4th Quarter level is seen as a major trend guide and support level for 2016 @ 5171 & the November lows @ 5128 (previous Report)

                                   Market heading up into the 2017 highs. We can see the trailing support levels in Yellow if there's any short-term weakness in December, which it might. However it could continue to trend all the way up to 2293

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 6th November 2016 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

The only concern would be if price dips and finds support around 2109 but the next 5-days the market moves sideways. if that happens then there could be some weakness in the week of the 10th October. (Previous Report)

We've seen weakness from the 10th October but nothing that's of concern at the moment, as we go into the US election.

The overall trend is to continue up into 2017 highs no matter who wins, but in the short-term trade on the side of the November level @ 2085.

Note:- Weekly cycle breakout suggests a potential dip down into 2057, but I'm still bullish going into the end of the year.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 3rd October 2016

S&P 500 Emini  Primary & Weekly Cycles

My view continues to see Market to move towards the 2017 highs with short-term dips along the way.

As noted in the previous report, our trailing support level @ 2117 held, and by the looking at the price action it should continue to push up towards 2215 and trend into 2017.

The only concern would be if price dips and finds support around 2109 but the next 5-days the market moves sideways. if that happens then there could be some weakness in the week of the 10th October.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 4th September 2016 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

Trend bias is to continue higher with the expectation that the trend is going higher into 2017.

It's either going to remain above the Yearly highs @ 2146 and move towards the September highs.

or

Robust support 2117  if the Weekly lows fail to hold.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1st August 2016 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary and Weekly Cycles.

The S&P has reached 2103 and stalled forming a Weekly bar pattern that is called a 'NO CONTROL Pattern. This is where buying and selling around the extremes of the trend open and close in the middle of the 5-day range

When this occurs the trend can often continue in the following week as it breaks out of the range, and  last for the next 2 weeks as a minimum, with the Target of 2145

However it can also go the opposite way, and take out the lows and move down into the Support zone @ 2002 (Previous Report)

The S&P 500 has followed the Classic set-up of retesting support @ 2002 and then continuing higher as part of the move towards 2145 and the 2016 Yearly highs.

There will be random resistance around the August highs @ 2203, but keep in mind I'm expecting the UP trend to continue higher into 2017 with short-term pullback along the way.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 4th June 2016 Monthly Report

S&P 500 E-mini Futures Primary & Weekly cycles

Target is the Yearly highs @ 2145, you could see some resistance around 2103 and a retest of the 2016 50% level before it continues higher. (3 week's ago)

The S&P has reached 2103 and stalled forming a Weekly bar pattern that is called a 'NO CONTROL Pattern. This is where buying and selling around the extremes of the trend open and close in the middle of the 5-day range

When this occurs the trend can often continue in the following week as it breaks out of the range, and  last for the next 2 weeks as a minimum, with the Target of 2145

However it can also go the opposite way, and take out the lows and move down into the Support zone @ 2002.

Another pattern is to be aware of is, if it moves above the 5-day range early in the week and fails and closes back inside the range, then begin looking for 'SHORT Trade set-ups using the 5-day 50% level, as it's more than likely going to go downward.

First target :- 2040 (June 50% level)  then potentially 2002

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 8th MAY 2016 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycle

You could see some resistance around 2103 and a retest of the 2016 50% level before it continues higher. (Previous Report)

The target of 2103 just fell short, but we can see some weakness in US markets as it remains within the Weekly cycles.

It may remain within the weekly cycles as it slowly unwinds, as the expectation for the trend to continue higher it needs to retest the 2016 50% level.

However, also keep an eye on this week's lows @ 2024, as this could set up a move towards the MAY highs. (less likely but could happen)

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 16th April 2017 Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

The most robust patterns for it going higher is... 

2. moves quickly down in the 1st week of April and finds support off the Weekly lows  (PREVIOUS REPORT)

Early weakness at the start of April saw the S&P move down into the Weekly lows and continue higher.

Target is the 2016 highs @ 2145, but you could see some resistance around 2103 and a retest of the 2016 50% level before it continues higher.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 27th March 2016

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

 

S&P 500 reached 2006 but it didn't stop the upward trajectory, as it continues to follow the trends within the Weekly cycles and now price is consolidating above the 2016 50% level.

 

You can compare the price action in the Australian Stock Market and come to the conclusion that the trend is going to continue higher in 2016.

 

The most robust patterns for it going higher is...

 

1. remain above the Weekly 50% level as it trends up towards the April highs 2096-2113

2. moves quickly down in the 1st week of April and finds support off the Weekly lows and the April 50% level @ 1980

3. Above the 2016 Yearly 50% level

4. The Australian Market

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 28th February 2016

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly cycles

 

S&P has remained above the 2016 support levels without giving a clean indication as to whether the trend will continue higher for the rest of the year because of the lagging effect of the 'Break & Extend Pattern.

 

In the Short-tern (Next 4 weeks) keep an eye on the trends and set-ups within the Weekly cycles.

We can see in the chart of the right, the zig-zag patterns within each weekly 5-day cycle, as the market moves higher

 

Note:- If price continues up over the next 5-days price will hit the 2016 50% level, which is seen as a Robust resistance level:- 2000-2006

 

 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 10th February 2016 part 2

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

 

As noted in the previous report, the February 50% level would define the strength of the bounce in January. (dead cat)

 

We have another Break & Extend pattern playing out, with two possible patterns...

 

1. support around the 2016 lows for the next 6 weeks until March.

 

2. follows the break and extend pattern downward into March approx. 1740

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1st February 2016 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

 

Hallmarks of a double bottom have played out around the 2016 lows.

 However, even though it's playing out as expected, it's not a TEXT book pattern that screams BUY the market, because these lows should be occurring in March.

Therefore, it's more of a wait and see approach, and trade on the side of the February 50% level. If these are infact robust double lows, then price will need to consolidate above the FEB 50% and then continue upwards in March using the same dynamic 50% level.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 16th January 2016 Part 2

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

 

Markets are now officially in a Bear Trend, and often those trends follow a 2-period cycle, and that trend is going to look for the next Primary Support zone @ 1849.

 This pattern now has all the hallmarks of forming a 'double bottom' (Previous Report)

 

When we reference price action with Dilernia Principles, we can see the Weekly Break-n-Extend Pattern taking it from last week's breakout @ 1988 down into this Week's low @ 1857. This also completes the move down into the 2016 lows & 'double Bottom", earlier than expected.

This Hallmark 'double bottom' isn't a precise TEXT bottom that 'screams' BUY the market, because any buying that 'might' appear from next week is going to struggle to move higher than 1921, as this level will likely form Resistance for the rest of the month.

There's enough information in my book using 5-day patterns that can validate short-term counter-trend moves.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 9 January 2016

S&P 500 Primary Cycles

 

Note:- there is still a Minor bear pattern that is lagging from the August breakout @ 2027.

If we subscribe to the Dilernia Principle of Break & Extend pattern, then price trend needs to reach the lagging Monthly support zone, which currently resides around 1921 (blue). (Previous Report)

 

This Week's dramatic sell-off wasn't unexpected, based on the Dilernia Principle of 'Break & Extend'.  This week's action now completes the pattern from the 2015 breakout @2027.

 

Going forward, we could see some computer generated buying support around 1921 from next week, (validate support using patterns in my book) and see price rise up into the 2016 50% level, which is more than likely going to form resistance for a few many months.

 

However, US markets are now officially in a Bear Trend, and often those trends follow a 2-period cycle, and that trend is going to look for the next Primary Support zone @ 1849.

 

This pattern now has all the hallmarks of forming a 'double bottom' around March 2016.

 

 

 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1st January 2016 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary Cycles 2016

The start of the new year brings in the new Primary Cycles for 2016.

US markets aren't showing the same bear trend as the Australian Market, which is being heavily weighed down because of the bear trends in commodity prices.

The S&P 500 remains in a Bull Trend, as long as it remains above the 2016 50% level level.

Therefore 1992-2000 is a major support zone.

Note:- there is still a Minor bear pattern that is lagging from the August breakout @ 2027.

If we subscribe to the Dilernia Principle of Break & Extend pattern, then price trend needs to reach the lagging Monthly support zone, which currently resides around 1921 (blue).

Therefore even though it might not fall below the 2016 Support zones (1992-2000), the next up leg in US markets might not begin some months from now, as that Monthly Support zone dynamically creep upwards.