S&P 500 E-mini futures 1st October 2011 Weekly report

My view is that the trend will continue down towards the September lows, with a possible dip down as low as 1045 in October.

Once that occurs my view is that the downward trend will stabilise for the rest of 2011, and move into a 4th Quarter consolidation pattern.  (previous Weekly Report)

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

S&P didn't continue down into the September lows, but instead the Weekly level and pattern in the 5-day range @ 1117 provided a short-term (2-day rise) swing point.

However, later in the Weekly the trend resumed its course, which is towards the October lows that now matches my target in the Primary cycle @ 1045

Next Week:- the Weekly levels @ 1090 could provide another swing point...

but sometime during the next 4 weeks my view is that price will move down towards 1045.

S&P 500 E-mini futures 24th September

Traders should keep an eye on the Weekly level @ 1218.

if below at the start of next week, then look for a 2-day reversal pattern. If price breaks out of the 5-day lows on Tuesday, then the trend will continue lower for the rest of the week...

Previous Weekly Report

S&P Weekly cycles

Breakout of the 5-day lows occurred on Wednesday @ 1178, matched with the Weekly 50% level, and the rest of the week has continued lower.

My view is that the trend will continue down towards the September lows,  with a possible dip down as low as 1045-56 in October.

Once that occurs my view is that the downward trend will stabilise for the rest of 2011, and move into a 4th Quarter consolidation pattern.

This will set-up new levels for 2012 for a possible move towards new lows in 2012.

S&P 500 E-mini 17th September 2011 Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

I was looking for more weakness this week, as part of a move towards the September lows, but instead the market remained within the weekly channels, with Friday closing on its 5-day high.

Friday's close has the potential to see more gains next week, but unless the market breaks out of the weekly highs @ 1241, the current trend can quickly reverse back down.

Traders should keep an eye on the Weekly level @ 1218.

if below at the start of next week, then look for a 2-day reversal pattern.

if price breaks out of the 5-day lows on Tuesday, then the trend will continue lower for the rest of the week

if price bounces off the 5-day lows on Tuesday and closes higher, then next week could see more gains

S&P 500 E-mini futures 10th September 2011 Weekly Report

S&P Monthly & Weekly cycles

HOOK pattern earlier in the Week saw the S&P rise back towards upper resistance levels...

As per previous Reports.....

Expectation is that the trend is continuing down into the September lows

     Next Week:- Weekly levels are the trend guides, along with patterns & trading set-ups in the 5-day range

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 3rd September 2011 Weekly report

my hunch is that price continues to move up towards the Weekly highs, which are seen as resistance.

Once the next 5-days are over, then the week after next will let us know whether the trend follows the September low pattern using the Monthly 50% level as the trend guide.

If that happens then my bet is that Obama will announce QE3 somewhere around those September lows, which will underpin the trend for the rest of 2011  (Previous Weekly report)

S&P monthly and Weekly cycles.

Current price action has played out accordingly, with August lows supporting the trend, the market moving up into the Weekly highs, and then selling down from the Weekly highs.

Further weakness  was confirmed with Thursday’s close below the key weekly trend levels, and Friday followed, as part of a September 50% level rejection pattern towards new lows

My view is that over the next 10-days the market moves down towards the September lows.

 I previously said that the down trend is towards 1045 & the Yearly lows, but it might not get that low...as the target  is now 1078-1085 based on the Weekly cycles.

 I'd  keep an eye on any 'lame' Obama announcements around those lows (or 1045), as this will underpin the market for the rest of 2011.


Note:- in the short-term it won't surprise me to see the S&P move upwards as part of a 2day 'stall-reversal pattern', using the Weekly 50% level as the trend guide...
 
But i'd be surprised to see the market trading above 1217 over the next 5-days.
 
Trend bias is DOWN, helped by the Weekly levels.