S&P 500 E-mini Futures 27th August 2011 Weekly report

Next Week:- price remains above 1115 and likely to swing upwards, but then make a move towards the September lows in the following Month.

(Last Week's Report)

 

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

August lows @ 1115 continues to support the trend, resulting in the market rotating back towards the Weekly 50% level @ 1177, which formed resistance.

Next Week:- the S&P could move back down into the Weekly 50% level @ 1148, but my hunch is that price continues to move up towards the Weekly highs, which are seen as resistance.

Once the next 5-days are over, then the week after next will let us know whether the trend follows the September low pattern using the Monthly 50% level as the trend guide.

If that happens then my bet is that Obama will announce QE3 somewhere around those September lows and 1045, which will underpin the trend for the rest of 2011

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 20th August 2011 Weekly report

Next week normally begins with a 3 day UP move, as part of retesting the previous Weekly breakout. If that occurs, then traders should begin to look for shorts once again from Thursday onwards.

And if everything goes to plan, the market slowly unwinds and begins another downward leg into September lows.

Previous Weekly Report
 

S&P Primary and Weekly cycles

3-day UP-Move failed to move as high as 1245 (August 50% level), as the 3rd quarterly level @ 1208.50 stalled the market from rising further.

As noted in last week's report, and also described in my book, after the 3rd day up move in the 3rd Week, the next short sell pattern happens on Thursday.

Often that begins after the cash market closes on Wednesday, and aligned with resistance levels. This time  it was validated by the same sell-set-up but with price trading below the 5-day 50% level @ 1178

Next week:-

if price remains above 1115 then it's likely to swing upwards, but then make a move towards the September lows in the following Month.

Otherwise the overall trend bias is to continue down into the 2011 Yearly lows @ 1045, and as low as 1015

S&P Futures E-mini 13th August 2011 Weekly

the trend can often drop down from those levels and continue down into the August lows later this Month @ 1115


Those August lows, will once again be another long term swing point (BUY), that should see the market stabilise and move upwards into a large consolidation pattern for the rest of 2011.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Primary and Monthly cycles

Last Week’s price action was exaggerated on the news of the credit downgrade in the US, but we completed the move into the August lows @ 1115 quicker than expected

Because of the downgrade and the subsequent move into the August lows,  the price action has been in fast forward, and this gives a couple of conflicting patterns.

If it followed my original analysis and moved down into the August lows in the last week of the month  and dipped slightly lower in September, then the upward reversal pattern would normally last for the next 2-3 months, as it follows the monthly cycles:- October and then into November's highs.

Weekly report continues below....

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

However, let me stick to the original analysis, and the expectation of a 3rd week rally.

The 3rd week is next week, and begins with price trading above the Primary support levels @ 1169/73, combined with price trading inside the Weekly range @ 1169.

A 3rd Week rally normally begins with a 3 day move, as part of retesting the previous Weekly breakout.

That previous breakout is 1271, but it might fail at the August 50% level @ 1245.

If that occurs, then traders should begin to look for shorts once again from Thursday onwards.

And if everything goes to plan, the market slowly unwinds and begins another downward leg into September lows.

Note;- the conflicting pattern won't be known until September begins, because the next monthly 50% level will decide whether the trend makes a move towards the September lows..

or actually forms support, and the market follows the 2-3 month  upward move.

In the short-term:-  if the market rallies upwards for the next 3-days and closes on its highs by Wednesday, then from Thursday onwards becomes interesting.
 
                                                                      Trend guide 1169/1173

S&P 500 Emini futures 6th August 2011 Weekly

S&P Primary and Weekly cycles

August 50% level rejection pattern @ 1311, has led to as 'thrust' pattern downward:- top-to-bottom 5-day cycle.

This then resulted in a breakout of the Weekly lows @ 1272, and also below the 3rd quarterly 50% level @ 1266

Once that occured, then the Primary cycle takes over, sending the S&P 500 down into the primary support levels @ 1169/1273

1169/73 is a major support, and the 3rd Quarterly 50% level @ 1266 is a major resistance zone over the next 2-months.

Even though the trend has found support, my view is that it will double dip into August lows.



In my new book there is a section that clearly describes the current market conditions from pages 120 to 130, which spells out the possible price action over the next 2-3weeks, as described below..

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

If the current price action follows those text-book patterns, then the trend should move up into the Weekly level and then continue down into this week's lows @ 1144.

That pattern will complete the break and extend pattern from last week's lows @ 1272

If that plays out, then the following week should begin with a 3-5 day rally, that could go as high as the Quartertly 50% level @ 1266

Once that plays out, then the trend can often drop down from those levels and continue down into the August lows later this Month @ 1115

Those August lows, will once again be another long term swing point (BUY), that should see the market stabilise and move upwards into a large consolidation pattern for the rest of 2011.

Therefore over the next 3-weeks there should be a lot of volatility, and if it plays out as described then there's good money to be made
 
Of course it might not do any of that., but lets see how it goes.

Footnote:- This week's report was written before Standard and Poor downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA+, how it changes the analysis over the next 5-days is yet to be seen