S&P (e-mini ) 25th JUNE 2011 WEEKLY

if the S&P 500 rises upwards from the June lows @ 1259, then the 3rd quarterly 50% level will come into play.

However, traders should always be aware that 3rd Monthly 50% level rejection patterns can often extend downward towards the following monthly lows in the next Quarter.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Weekly cycles

As noted in the Previous Weekly report, the June lows @ 1259 will try and support the market, whilst the June 50% level rejection pattern will try and push the trend lower towards the July lows.

Therefore, next week could remain within the Weekly levels once again, and swing as high as the Weekly highs....

or it's going to break support and continue to trend lower, as shown in the next chart.

S&P Monthly and Secondary cycles

S&P is currently being supported at the 2nd Quarterly levels, which will shift at the start of July.

Therefore, there is enough reason why the S&P could rise upwards in the last week of the 2nd Quarter.

However, with QE2 ending and no sign of QE3 starting, the S&P could also follow the 3rd monthly rejection pattern towards the July lows.

In conclusion:- if the S&P rises upwards, then the 3rd Quarterly high around 1325 will probably form resistance and push the market lower once again.

If it's trading below current support and the 3rd quarterly 50% level, it's likely to continue down towards 1208.50.

The 3rd Quarter looks to be more sideways range trading with a downward bias.

S&P (e-mini ) 18th JUNE 2011 WEEKLY

next week's lows @ 1254 match the June lows @ 1259, and this will be seen as a support level

If looking for lows in the market for short-term counter-trend moves, then next week's levels come into play, along with using the 5-day range to help validate entry levels...

Random resistance @ 1285.25


Previous Weekly report

S&P Weekly Cycles

S&P moved down into the Support levels @ 1254-59, and then remained range bound within the Weekly levels, with 1285.25 acting as resistance.

As noted in last week's report, if the S&P is going to find support, it will begin to gradually rise over the next couple of weeks, helped by price remaining above 1268.50

However, traders should always be aware that 3rd Monthly 50% level rejection patterns can often extend downward into following monthly lows in the next Quarter.

S&P Primary cycles

In 2010 the Market reversed down from the Primary highs and moved down into the trailing Quarterly 50% levels.

The price action in 2011 is following a similar pattern, but without the 'flash crash' that occurred last year.

And if the market follows a similar pattern, and the trend continues to extend downward, then lower Quarterly 50% levels come into play once again @ 1173-1188

Note:- if the S&P 500 rises upwards from this week's lows @ 1254-59, then the 3rd quarterly 50% level will come into play (Yellow)....

And will define whether the trend continues upwards (QE3)....

or moves down into 1173

S&P (e-mini ) 11th JUNE 2011 WEEKLY

"next week’s trading is simply based on trading either side of 1301.50

If below it’s down towards the June lows @ 1259. (random support Weekly lows @ 1286)"



S&P 500 WEEKLY CYCLES

The S&P has continued down towards the June lows @ 1259, whilst finding some support earlier this week around the Weekly lows @ 1286.

As we can see, next week's lows @ 1254 match the June lows @ 1259, and this will be seen as a support level, but won't be the low in the current downward trend.

That low is likely to extend towards the July lows, that haven't been confirmed as yet.

Depending on how the next few weeks trades, that low could be as low as 1188 (Quarterly 50% level), or 1173 (Yearly 50% level)....

However, if the June lows @ 1254-59 provides support for the next 3-weeks, then the July lows will be higher.

If looking for lows in the market to re-enter longs on 'stock positions' I would wait until July.

If looking for lows in the market for short-term counter-trend moves, then next week's levels come into play, along with using the 5-day range to help validate entry levels...

Random resistance @ 1285.25

S&P (e-mini ) 4th June 2011 Weekly

If the S&P is going to continue upwards, then it's going to rise from the Weekly 50% level and move towards the Weekly level @ 1348. If that happens then we look for short-term weakness that is going to retest the June 50% level @ 1322 from Wednesday

The June 50% level will be the trend guide for the rest of the Quarter.

The S&P continues to trade above 1301, and unless there is a close below 1301, then the upward trend remains stable.

Previous Weekly report

S&P 500 Weekly

The S&P rose upwards from the Weekly 50% level until the Weekly highs, and as noted in the previous Weekly report, a reversal pattern occurred from Wednesday to move back down to test the June 50% level.

However, Wednesday continued lower closing below the June 50% level @ 1322.50, which put pressure on the market for the rest of the week. And as we can see, this has resulted in a Weekly close below 1301


The Weekly close below 1301 helps validated potential further weakness during the current Quarter, which can lead to a trend bias towards the June lows @ 1259

Therefore, next week’s trading is simply based on trading either side of 1301.50

If below it’s down towards the June lows @ 1259. (random support Weekly lows @ 1286)

If above 1301.50 then it’s looks like a 2-day counter-trend move to retest the June 50% level @ 1322.50, which is seen as resistance.