S&P (e-mini ) 28th MAY 2011 Weekly

We saw a similar patterns in March & April, and on both occasions Friday had closed above the Weekly 50% level, and the trend continued upwards...

However, this week failed to close above the Weekly 50% level, to help validate the same pattern.

Based on the current price action, the S&P could be following a double Weekly low pattern into next week's lows @ 1311, as the market consolidates into the start of June.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Weekly

The S&P moved down into a double Weekly low @ 1311, providing another FAKE break pattern.

If the S&P is going to continue upwards, then it's going to rise from the Weekly 50% level and move towards the Weekly level @ 1348. If that happens then we look for any short-term weakness that is going to retest the June 50% level (support)

Note:- Friday's failure to move above the daily highs on Friday could actually see the first 2-days move down into the lower Weekly level @ 1313, which aligns with the start of the month of June....

As we can see the June 50% level is actually a lower level than the MAY 50%, which will then be the trend guide for the rest of the Quarter.

The S&P continues to trade above the 2011 highs @ 1301, and unless there is a monthly close below 1301, then the upward trend remains stable.

Next Week:- simply trade on the side of 1331 until Wednesday, and then the June 50% level.

S&P (e-mini ) 21st April 2011 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

S&P continues to consolidate above support levels @ 1324.50, after finding support around it's Weekly lows earlier in the Week.

We saw a similar patterns in March & April, and on both occasions Friday had closed above the Weekly 50% level, and the trend continued upwards...

However, this week failed to close above the Weekly 50% level, to help validate the same pattern.

Based on the current price action, the S&P could be following a double Weekly low pattern into next week's lows @ 1311, as the market consolidates into the start of June.

S&P (e-mini ) 14th MAY 2011 Weekly

Remains consolidating above 1324.50 for the next few weeks until the start of June, and then makes a play for the monthly highs


or breaks support and continues lower

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

The S&P continues to consolidate above support levels during the month of MAY, and once again we see a familiar pattern appear.

A lot of trends often continue higher when the Weekly lows catch up with the trend, and as we can see, those weekly lows have once again moved upwards to align with support levels in the S&P500 (1324.50)

We saw this in March (fake break)and the trend continue higher in April, and whilst the S&P remains above 1324.50 there is an upward bias towards the MAY highs:- 1383 to 1397

However, we must acknowledge that a daily close below 1320 will put pressure on the S&P to move down into 1300

And anything below 1300, is seen as extremely weak, as it will be once again trading below the Yearly highs

S&P (e-mini) 7th MAY 2011 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

As per last Week's report, the initial view was that there would be a 2-day reversal pattern back down into 1347, which will then be the guide on whether the trend continues down into the MAY 50% level or not.

I also pointed out in last week's report...

At this stage QE2 remains until the end of June, therefore it's likely to underpin the current trend...

therefore, unless it  is  trading below the Weekly and monthly 50% level @ 1324.50, the trend bias remains stable.

In 2010 we saw a 'flash crash' pattern in the first week or MAY, and in 2011 we have weakness once again in the first week of MAY, however, this time it continues to remain above support levels, helped by the market being above the Yearly highs in 2011 (1301-1331)


There are two possible patterns that can play out for the rest of the month....
 
#1) Remains consolidating above 1324.50 for the next few weeks until the start of June, and then makes a play for the monthly highs
 
#2) the trend continues down using the Weekly 50% level as the trend guide, and follows the Weekly range towards lower lows:- 1310.75 and then 1291.25