S&P (e-mini ) 26th March 2011 Weekly

"The trend guide Weekly level @ 1271.50

Above and potential swing back towards 1293-1300, with the expectation the trend is continuing down"

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

My view was that the S&P would continue down towards the monthly lows because the market was trading below 1293 and the Yearly highs @ 1300.

1293 provided 3-days of resistance, along with 8.5 to 14 points of downward ranges, but without the follow through that I was expecting.

And everything changed with Thursday's daily close above the Weekly 50% level and also 1300.

Next Week:- In the short-term, whilst the market remains above 1300 the trend bias is to move upwards.

The S&P can continue to remain within a consolidation pattern around the Yearly highs @ 1300 and 1331, influenced by the levels in the Weekly range (White), until the start of April.

However, there are reports coming out that there are two large Macro Funds in the US that are now net long 250% on the S&P, therefore we can't discount the S&P following the monthly ranges once again (new highs by April)

Note:- If the market is once again below 1293/1300, then my view is that it will resume its move back down towards the monthly lows.

S&P (e-mini) 19th March 2011 Weekly

#2) If the Market closes below the March 50% level and Yearly highs @ 1300, then there is a possible reversal trend towards lower support.

If #2 occurs then we could see the market trading back around
1210

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Breakout pattern was confirmed last week, however the first target of 1229.75 wasn't reached.

We currently have the S&P in a breakout pattern, and I would continue to look for more weakness towards the first target...and as low as 1202-1210.

Next Week:- the trend guide is simply based on the Weekly level @ 1271.50

My view is that the trend will continue down...

however, the S&P could swing back towards the Weekly 50% level and retest the 2011 highs @ 1300.

At this stage I'd be surprised to see the S&P above 1300 for the rest of the current month of March

S&P (e-mini )12th March 2011 Weekly

What normally happens during each quarterly cycle after a double monthly high pattern (February), is that the trend will revisit the monthly 50% level and then continue higher, as seen in the Aussie market this week.

That might still happen next week, therefore it's a simple case of trading on the side of the Weekly 50% level

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

The S&P has reversed back into the March 50% levels and found support, with Fridays' reversal up from the daily lows, which matched 1283.50

There are two possible patterns that could play out for the rest of
the first Quarter and the month of March

#1) We have seen the market move down in an orderly fashion towards
the March 50% level, which forms support and then continues higher towards the 2nd quarter highs in April

#2) If the Market closes below the March 50% level and Yearly highs @ 1300, then there is a possible reversal trend towards lower support.

If #2 occurs then we could see the market trading back around
1210, helped by the events in the Middle East and also the rising
price of OIL.

S&P (e-mini ) 5th March 2011 Daily Weekly

Weekly support @ 1295 is simply a short-term counter trend move back to retest the breakout @ 1329-1331

If the market stalls @ 1331, and is once again trading below the Weekly 50% level, then traders need to keep an eye on the lower Weekly level @ 1304.

If the market begins trading below 1300-1304 , then I'll be looking for more weakness.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Last week saw an early sell off from 1331 back down into the support levels of 1300-1304.

However, Wednesday closed back above 1304, which resulted in the S&P moving into a consolidating 5-day range that closed near the Weekly 50% level

February's highs were a continuation of the resistance levels, which once again saw Friday sell down from 1331, but those levels disappear and push upwards next week, with a likely trend towards the MARCH highs.

What normally happens during each quarterly cycle after a double monthly high pattern (February), is that the trend will revisit the monthly 50% level and then continue higher, as seen in the Aussie market this week.

That might still happen next week, therefore it's a simple case of trading on the side of the Weekly 50% level, and looking for patterns within the daily range for 8.5 to 14 point ranges.

Note:- the S&P is trading around the 2011 highs in the Primary cycle.

Traders need to be aware of any market action below 1300, and especially the monthly 50% level, as this can often put pressure on the market to revisit the lower support levels in the first quarter