S&P (e-mini ) 26th February 2011 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

S&P was trading around the February highs, which were seen as resistance.

Weakness was verified on Tuesday, with a break of the Weekly level @ 1329-31, helped by Tuesday's rejection pattern (daily 50% level) as part of a 2-day reversal set-up.

As noted in the daily report on Thursday...Over the past 6 months the dynamic Weekly lows has supported the market during the current trend since September 2010, and 1295 was that level in February.

What we now have is a short-term counter-trend move back towards the Weekly 50% level @ 1322.50.

Things begin to get interesting from next week, as there are two larger timeframe patterns playing out.

#1) the market remains in an orderly pattern after this week's low @ 1295 and the trend continues back towards the Weekly highs, and then towards the MARCH highs.

#2) Weekly support @ 1295 is simply a short-term counter trend move back to retest the breakout @ 1329.

If the market stalls @ 1329-31, and is once again trading below the Weekly 50% level, then traders need to keep an eye on the lower Weekly level @ 1304.

If the market begins trading below 1300-1304 , then i'll be looking for more weakness.

Keep in Mind that the S&P 500 is already trading around the 2011 highs.

Weakness :- can remain within an orderly trend, and move towards the lower Monthly 50% levels....

Or any negative news of unrest spreading in the middle east towards Saudi Arabia, could have the potential to see a swift move back down towards the trailing 3-month lows @ 1209, and 1st Quarterly support...

Which was a similar pattern that occured last year, when the April highs reversed down into trailing Quarterly support levels, but for very different reasons.

S&P (e-mini ) 19th February 2011 Weekly

There are numerous instances when the levels will provide resistance of 8.5 to 14 points during the trading day, which is the statistical range.

Those levels are 1331, 1339 & 1347


S&P Monthly and Weekly

The past 5-days saw the market hit two of those resistance levels:- 1331 & 1339.

the first resistance level provided a 8.5 point reversal.

The 2nd resistance level at the Weekly highs stalled the market for nearly 2 days, until late after hours buying pushed the futures market higher on Friday.

And Monday should hit the 3rd resistance level @ 1347.


Next Week:-


1347 is still seen as resistance, but the trend could also continue higher towards next week's highs @ 1357.


Once again I'd look for weakness of 8.5 to 14 points towards the Weekly levels @ 1329.



1329/31 will be the trend guide for the rest of the current month of February, as it will help define whether the trend remains above monthly highs, and then continues towards higher highs in March...

or there is short-term weakness back down into traling support levels (Weekly lows)

S&P Primary cycle and monthly range

If February remains supported above 1329/31 and continues to trend upwards in an orderly manner within the weekly range...

The upside target during 2011, will be 1429

Note:- all larger timeframe patterns are always validated with lesser known timeframe patterns to help find trades, whether shorting resistance or trading support within the daily range.

S&P (e-mini ) 12th February 2011 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

The S&P has followed the monthly charts in February and has continued towards 1331.

once again these levels will be seen as resistance:- 1331, 1339 & 1347.

There are numerous instances when the levels will provide resistance of 8.5 to 14 points during the trading day, which is the statistical range.

However, getting any lasting selling patterns won't be verified unless the market is back below certain weekly levels.

And that Weekly level is 1314.50 (next week).

Note:- the February highs completes the double monthly high pattern during the current Quarterly cycle.

If trading stocks on the long side, I personally wouldn't want to be buying into the market as these highs.

I would once again wait until markets rotate back into trailing support levels.

S&P (e-mini ) 5th February 2011 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Last week I had the view that the S&P would continue down, with a minimum move down towards the February 50% level.

Instead we had a rally from the Weekly lows towards new highs.

There were a few important patterns occurring last week that suggested more upside

#1 Monday closed back above the Weekly 50% level

#2 Monthly resistance levels in January disappeared and shifted higher in February.

#3 Daily close above the Weekly highs.

Next Week:-

Expectation that the trend is following the Weekly trend towards the February highs, and a double weekly high pattern

1316  is seen as resistance

if the market is below 1304, then we look for Short-term weakness back down into the February 50% level @ 1263

Note:-

As we can in the monthly charts, there is still the possibility that the trend during the first Quarter continues towards 1331