S&P (e-mini ) 29th January 2011 Weekly

The S&P is now reversing down from the January highs

There are two possible patterns for the rest of this month

#A continues to drift lower until the start of the next Month, but then
makes higher highs in February (using the Weekly lows as support)

#B Next week more selling appears and the S&P continues down into the January 50% level @ 1214-1222.

Previous Weekly Report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

My view was that the S&P has reached its highs and was reversing down, however I needed to see a reversal pattern on a 'Friday' down into the Weekly 50% level.

The previous Week didn't play out as expected, and we saw the Market push back towards the highs (as noted in last week's report)

And finally this week provided the reversal down into the Weekly 50% level, with Friday's price action.

As per expectation of the reversal down from the highs, the minimum move is down into the Weekly lows.

These Weekly lows have less probability of supporting the market after the January highs have been reached, but there are two possible patterns that can play out.

#A:- market continues down and follows an orderly double Weekly low pattern:- next week's lows and then the following Weekly lows, that coincides with the February 50% level

or

#B:- next week continues to trend down into 1212-14

(which I'm hoping)

S&P (e-mini ) 22nd January 2011 Weekly

S&P Primary and Secondary cycles


The S&P is now reversing down from the January highs

There are two possible patterns for the rest of this month

#A continues to drift lower until the start of the next Month, but then
makes higher highs in February (using the Weekly lows as support)

#B Next week more selling appears and the S&P continues down into the January 50% level @ 1214-1222.

S&P Weekly

This Week saw the S&P reverse down from the January highs @ 1295, with the expectation that the market would move back down into 1277 (weekly level)

There was an important pattern taking place over the past few days that could have seen more selling next week, with the potential that Set-up B could play out

Keep in mind that the 3-week lows are support levels until the January highs have been reached. Because the monthly highs during the first Quarter have already been reached, the Weekly lows have less probability of supporting the market during the current Quarter.


My preferred pattern this week would have seen Friday continue down into the Weekly 50% level @ 1264, then open up below 1274 (resistance) and then continue down with a first target @ 1258 (weekly lows) and then hold (set-up B)

However, Friday didn’t play out as expected, instead moving upwards and remaining above key Weekly levels.

For the trend to continue down it needs to be trading below 1274. (selling down from the monthly highs and then trading below the Weekly 50% level)

But because of Friday’s price action, I’ve seen on many occasion the following week actually push upwards from the Weekly 50% level and move back towards the highs. (more consolidation at the top)

So my view of continuing lower early next week might not play out as expected, but whilst the market remains trading around the January highs, my continued focus until the dynamics shift in February is to trade on the short side.

S&P (e-mini ) 15th January 2011 Weekly

Based on Friday's price action and support using the Daily lows, my view is that next week will begin with the trend trying to move upwards over the next 2-days.

The trend guide is 1265.25, which will determine whether the S&P continues up towards the January highs @ 1280

How far Tuesday/Wednesday travels will determine whether price continues towards the January and then February highs.....

Previous Weekly report

S&P Weekly and Daily range

S&P has continued up towards January's highs @ 1280, with Tuesday providing support above 1265.25, and then Wednesday providing the change in the intra-day cycle for a trending pattern upwards, using the daily 50% level and daily channel high @ 1269

Wednesday's trading range resulted in a breakout of the 5-day high, which often extends upwards into the following daily highs:- break and extend pattern.

As seen with Friday's price action of testing the 50% level and daily channel high once again @ 1274.50


Next Week The market can continue to trend up towards the Weekly highs (Monday's highs)

If the market is below 1291.75, then I'm treating the S&P as part of a 2-day reversal pattern back towards the Weekly level @ 1277.


S&P Primary and Secondary cycles

S&P is nearing the 2011 highs @ 1300 quicker than expected.

My preferred pattern has always been a retest of the Weekly lows during late December early January (buy the dips), as seen with the Australian Market this week, however that hasn't happened.

We begin nearing the top levels in the Primary cycles from next week.

S&P (e-mini ) 8th January 2011 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

S&P has remained with its upward trend, as it moves towards the January highs @ 1280.

There is a larger Primary cycle that could see the S&P around 1300, as per previous report....

However, for the market to continue to move towards that high it would first need to visit the Weekly lows, which are currently @ 1238.

Next Week:- the trend guide is 1265.25, which will determine whether the S&P continues up towards the January highs @ 1280

Or moves down into support levels:- Weekly lows @ 1238.

Based on Friday's price action and support using the Daily lows, my view is that next week will begin with the trend trying to move upwards over the next 2-days.


How far Tuesday/Wednesday travels will determine whether price continues towards the January and then February highs.....

or a failure to remain above the Weekly level @ 1265, puts pressure on the market later next week.