S&P (e-mini ) 1st January 2011 Weekly

S&P Primary Cycle

The end of the 2010 Primary cycle, and we begin a new Primary cycle for 2011.

Trading above the 2010 highs @ 1200 should continue to push up towards the 2011 highs @ 1300

a number of resistance levels in 2011 :- 1300 & then 1331.

The Primary cycle is a long time, therefore we continue to focus on the lesser timeframes (Monthly and Weekly), whilst looking for trading set-ups using the 5-day range and the Weekly levels.

We also need to be aware of any 'flash crashes' that may occur in 2011....

with the key support level @ 1173 (2011 50%)


S&P monthly and Weekly

My view was for the S&P to continue higher in the first Quarter for 2011, with the most robust setting using the 3 week lows as support (late December or early January)

In the short-term, the trend remains up, as long as price remains above the Weekly level @ 1253.50

If below, there is still the possibility that price moves down and finds support at those 3-week lows @ 1232-1234

My preferred pattern would be price coming down into those lows first before the January highs have been reached @ 1280

If the January highs @ 1280 are reached first without moving down into the Weekly lows, then the support levels will differ later in the January, as they won't be as valid.

S&P (e-mini ) 25th DEC 2010 Weekly

My view is that the S&P will complete the break and extend pattern from the October highs @ 1174 and into the December highs 1249-1252, and then go looking for the weekly lows later in December or early January.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly Range:- Dilernia Model

We can see the S&P reach the December highs and likely continue towards the January highs in the first Quarter of 2011.

However, the ideal pattern to capture the continuation of the UP trend would be to see the S&P revisit the weekly lows, which have now crept upwards and are currently @ 1222

The DOW will mimic the same patterns as the S&P, but it hasn't reached those same December highs @ 11593, therefore we have the S&P consolidating around the highs waiting for the DOW to complete the same pattern.

Therefore the trend in the S&P can continue up towards next week's highs...

and if the S&P is going to move down into the Weekly lows, then the first sign will be a daily close below 1248.

S&P (e-mini ) 18th DEC 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly (Dilernia Model)

S&P moved into an extremely tight trading range over the past week, as it looks to be grinding to a halt as we get closer to the holiday season with a lack volatility

My view is that the S&P will try and complete 1249.50 next week (1252) and then go looking for the 3-week lows later in December or early January.

Whether the market continues up or goes down... the trend guide over the next 5-days will be determined by the Weekly level @ 1239.50

If price moves down from 1239.50 on Monday, then my view is over the next 5-days it will be more of the same, as the market drifts towards the Weekly 50% levels.

S&P (e-mini ) 11th December 2010 Weekly

upper targets are likely to be reached next week :- 1238 to 1249.

December highs @ 1249 will complete the break and extend pattern from October's breakout @ 1174

Previous Weekly report


S&P Monthly and Weekly


1249 is likely to be reached by new week. (1252)

Once that completes I'll be looking for a potential reversal back towards the 3-week lows.

However, there needs to be lesser patterns that will verify that expectation...

for example:- a breakout of the 5-day lows

S&P (e-mini ) 4th DEC 2010 Weekly

The most likely outcome is the S&P continuing to consolidate over the new few days until the start of December.

If the S&P is going to continue upwards, then the most robust support level will be the levels in December and a push up towards higher highs.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Montlhy and Weekly

There is a breakout of the October highs @ 1174, which resulted in the S&P finding support around that level for a number of week's during November.

And on the first day of December the market begins the next leg up towards the December highs.

Those upper targets are likely to be reached next week :- 1238 to 1249.

December highs @ 1249 will complete the break and extend pattern from October's breakout @ 1174