S&P (e-mini ) 27th March 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly

S&P upside target in 2010 is 1200-1255.

At this stage the upper target will be based on the closing price of the first Quarter currently @ 1223

Currently the market is trading around the first quarter highs @ 1177 and the March highs @ 1162

Next week can continue to remain around these resistance levels until the resistance levels shift at the end of next week.

The most ideal set-up to capture any longs in the market would be a rotation back towards the April 50% level.

S&P Weekly

Weekly 50% level is the trend guide and can see a push towards the highs again.

The medium term trend guide is the Weekly 50% level so it won't take much for the trend to change.

A pullback into the 3-Week lows which match the April 50% level should continue upwards in the 2nd Quarter.

DOW S&P 20th March 2010 Weekly

DOW S&P Weekly


Last Week we had the same short-term sell pattern on Friday, but this time it's matched with the March Highs @ 10725 in the DOW.

The DOW has been lagging the S&P in market dynamics, and the same thing occurred around January's highs. S&P hangs around the highs and waits until the DOW catches up and then they proceed to rotate back down into monthly 50% levels.

Once again i'll start next week with the expectation of a short-term reversal pattern and then see how it reacts to the Weekly 50% level.

However, I’m not expecting the same swift reversal as in January/February, but I would like to see some short–term pullback into higher timeframe 50% levels before the continuation of the UP trends in the 2nd Quarter.

DOW S&P 5-day pattern

As mentioned in Friday's report..." Ideally the best reversal trends align with Friday's highs and higher timeframe levels, but I'm not sure if Friday's highs will be reached.

It didn't align with the S&P but it did on the DOW, and because it's a Friday high I would begin to look for a continuation of the trend down (2-days).

How did I trade Friday?

I personally don't want to be up a night trading the US markets, so I'm confident in using the levels and place limit trades.

I went short on the DOW @ 10724 and 10750 and partial exit @ 10668 (and holding).

I went long on the S&P @ 1160. 25 looking for a 8 point UP move into Friday's highs...

I also placed short trades @ 1168.50 and 1177.

Basically I didn't want miss any potential reversal on Friday, but I also knew that the S&P could have continued into the Friday highs and Weekly highs:- 8.5 point up move

S&P continued higher but only until the DOW reached the Friday highs.

Stopped out on S&P @ 1158 (didn't get filled on shorts)

And DOW followed the reversal pattern and expectation the trend will continue towards the Weekly 50% level.

DOW Quarterly and Yearly

Our upside targets in the DOW for 2010 :- 11157- 11637

S&P Targets 1200- 1255

In conclusion:-

Any potential short-term reversal from March highs is part of a larger trend move towards those Yearly highs in the 2nd Quarter.

S&P (e-mini ) 13th March 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Resistance on the S&P 1152 & 1159...

I'd be surprised to see the S&P higher than 1159 this month" ... Thursday's report

S&P has completed the move into the March highs and I would begin tolook for a short-term pullback towards the higher timeframe 50% levelsfrom next week.

I'm favouring higher prices in the 2nd Quarter, but because of Friday's spike into 1159 and the Weekly close below 1152,

I feel the 'top' in March has been reached and a rotation pattern will begin.

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

With Friday's pattern I would begin to look for a 2-day pullback towards the Weekly 50% level @ 1131.

Next week we are trading June contracts and June is opening below support levels on Monday (yellow) with an expectation that price is moving down towards the 5-day lows that match the weekly 50% level.

Any UP trend will continue up from the Weekly 50% level, but that needs to be verified only after the 2-day reversal completes.

If Tuesday breaks support (Weekly 50% level) then we begin to focus on the Monthly 50% levels as a pullback.

S&P (e-mini ) 6 March 2010 March

S&P Monthly & Weekly

S&P completes the move into the February highs and will probably continue higher next week into the March highs.

Those March highs will complete a double monthly high pattern in the first Quarter, which in theory should be the top of the first Quarter.

The most robust patterns to be trading longs would be to see price come back down into the 3-month 50% levels in the 2nd Quarter and the upside targets will be the 3-Quarter highs in the 2nd Quarter.

There is a breakout of the Weekly highs @ 1121, which should extend upwards early next week (also 5-day high breakout). into 1148

Because of the 3-week breakout and the 3-week 50% level (green), at this stage I don't think the Month of March is going to be spending much time below those levels.

What we need to keep an eye on is how the S&P responds to 1148-52, because this will complete a break and extend pattern in the Weekly timeframe, and I would normally look for a retest of the break @ 1116-1121.