S&P 500 Futures 31st Oct 09 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Last Week of the month and I was looking for October highs to be resistance zones and for markets to pullback into the monthly 50% levels.

There were two set-ups....

SET-UP A:- was a 'crash pattern' that would see price all the way back down into the October 50% levels.

This is normally set-up with a crash on Tuesday and price trading below the 3-week lows.

SET_UP B was also a reversal, but only a short-term pullback into the November 50% levels and for the trend to continue higher.

Sadly SET-UP A didn’t continue down, as it would have provided far profits on the way down, and I had a robust swing points to trade longs from lower prices from next Friday.

The trend would continue down another week, but then provide support next Friday and for a large 3-day counter-trend rally back upwards the week after that.

Instead price has closed above the 3-week lows and trading on or near the November 50% levels.

At this stage price is going the be defined by the monthly 50% levels in November, and if price remains above the 3-week lows @ 1019.50, then November is going to remain range bound and consolidate (Weekly ranges up & down)

Which is perfect for short-term swing trading using the patterns in the 5-day range.

Below 1019.50 and price is following the move down into 996 (delayed Set-up A)

I would need to see another 5-days of trading to get a feel for how the rest of the 4th Quarter is going to trade.

S&P (e-mini ) 24th October Weekly

S&P monthly and Weekly

US markets reversed down on Friday and into a lower Friday close, but I expected more selling today with price to be trading or closing around the Weekly 50% level.

The 3-day sell cycle and higher Friday open normally favours a lower Weekly close as price is trading around monthly high resistance levels.

I only finished writing a section in my new book “ TIME, PRICE, SUPPORT, RESISTANCE, and reversal patterns after the completion of the 3-month cycles…

Each reversal down started from this exact same pattern:- higher Thursday close and Friday sell off.

And the trend continues down early next week with a break of the Weekly 50% level and a short-term mini collapse down into the Monthly 50% levels (SET-UP A)

Except this time the exact same pattern hasn't occurred as previously with the follow through down into the weekly 50% level not occurring

However, next week's 50% level is the one to watch with the potential SET-UP A in play.

Normally the break occurs in the first two days of the new week, so i'll have a
fair idea whether SET-UP A is going to occur, or price continues to consolidate and remain with SET-UP B.

S&P DOW Futures 17th Oct 09 Weekly

S&P Monthly

3rd Quarter thrust pattern from July 50% resulted in a breakout of the 3-month cycle in July.

A breakout in the 3-month cycle normally moves into a 3-month breakout pattern until this start of the next 3-month cycle in October.

There was an expectation that price had to come down into the 3-week lows early in October and then complete the break and extend pattern @ 1092.

Normally when these cycles complete price will move into a rotation pattern looking for the monthly 50% levels.

Sure the market can go higher, but at this stage I'm treating the Global Equity markets as range bound around upper resistance levels until November.

Set-up B is most likely with a rotation into the monthly 50% level in November and then higher moves into in the end of the Year.

SET-UP A is less likely to occur but it can happen because the monthly 50% level is currently much lower


DOW S&P Weekly

Next Week is simply a view of price being range bound between the Weekly 50% levels, and maybe travel as high as the Weekly highs.

Any moves during the week will be based on using the support or resistance levels within the 5-day pattern.

Bearish patterns around these October highs, will need to be verified with a Friday close below the Weekly 50& levels.

If price is trading below the Weekly 50% levels, then traders need to keep in mind that SET-UP A might be happening.

S&P 500 Weekly 10 October 2009

S&P Weekly


As per last Week's report:- expectation of a 2-day reversal from the 3-week lows, and once above 1039 the bias was to move upwards, as part of the 4th trend towards the October highs:- Higher Weekly close.

Next Week:- I would think that Monday and Tuesday will push up towards the Weekly highs, and then look for some rotation back down into the Weekly 50% level

S&P 500 Monthly

There is a breakout of the 3-monthly cycle in July and this pattern normally extends into the highs of the next 3-month cycle (October).

Things begin to get interesting once those highs complete in October because the Month of November and the creeping 50% level will let traders know whether the trend is going to go higher in the 4th Quarter, or the trend is going to reverse down and move into a 2-month rotation pattern back down (December)

S&P 500 Weekly 3rd October 2009

S&P Monthly

Two weeks ago I posted a chart that suggested that price would come down early in the 4th Quarter and then make a last move upwards in the 4th Quarter, and so far the first part has started.

My view over the next 3-months is based on the 4th Quarter 50% level holding and moving up into 2010 highs and then dropping back down

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Last week's view was for an early 2-day UP move from the lower Weekly open using the weekly 50% levels as support, however the September highs at 1062 resisted and my preferred pattern of moving down into the 3-week lows played out.

S&P has moved down into the 3-week lows (1012), which is the pattern that I
wanted to see happen at the start of October.

In a Bull market, this level will normally hold & form a support base over the next 3-days and then continue higher in the same month to complete the 3-monthly cycle:- break and extend pattern from July into October/November highs.

In a bull market what I would normally look for is the 3-day high range to drop below 1038-1039 and then trade longs on the break. This is based on verifying support on a large timeframe (weekly), and then validate support in a lesser timeframe:- 3-day high breakout.

However, the S&P isn’t in a bull-market trend, all it has done is reverse back into the Yearly 50% levels and reject back down. The Primary cycle and trend is defined by the Yearly timeframe.

If the Trend is going to continue down then the same pattern canoccur:- consolidate for 3-days below 1038 and then continue down once again towards the October 50% level @ 997

At this stage the important part was Friday remaining above1012 and Friday's 5-day low support.