DOW S&P Weekly 27th June 2009

DOW S&P Weekly

Last Week's trading was all about the direction Monday took in relation to the Weekly 50% level.

Monday sold off from higher Daily opens that aligned with the 5-day 50% level sending both markets down, but not down far enough in my books.

I had a minimum target of 8120 on the DOW, before a potential swing back towards the Weekly 50% levels

The current reversal trend from March lows to where price is now will be completely dependant on the July 50% level.

I have a view of much higher prices based on Primary trend, but if prices are below the July 50% levels then any UP trend is up to risk.

Traders should get an idea about the trend by simply using the Weekly 50% level as a trend guide after June ends.

Based on Friday's close and a Higher Weekly open next week, I would view that price should continue to rotate down into July's 50% levels that will be confirmed after the next 3-days of trading


DOW S&P monthly

At this stage based on the current price action in the 2nd Quarter, and the position of the 3rd Quarter 50% levels, the view is to continue to move UP towards the July highs...

However, I'll get a clearer view of the market after another 5-day of trading and the end of next week.

Next Week's closing price should be able to validated the levels much better.

Until then, trade the probability patterns within the 5-day range set-ups

DOW S&P Weekly 20th June 2009

DOW S&P Weekly

The trend guide for the past 3 months has been the Weekly 50% level.

As pointed out last week, the September future contracts were running at a discount to the SPOT, which often leads to lower prices coming into expiry dates.

This resulted in US markets breaking their Weekly 50% levels on Monday and moving down into the Monthly mid-points.

The Monthly mid-points ended up supporting the markets, but continued to remain below the Weekly 50% levels.

Next week:- the Weekly 50% level drops and this be the new trend guide for the next 5-days of trading, and Monday should clearly give traders an idea about the direction.

There are 3 patterns that can play out.....

1. Weekly 50% level becomes another resistance zone sending US markets down once again.

2. Monday moves up and closes higher, resulting in a bottom to top close:- higher Friday close.

3. the next 5-days consolidates either side of the Weekly 50% level and continues to do so until the end of the month and the 3rd Quarter begins....

This will define where the next Monthly 50% level and the next trend begins in the
3rd Quarter.

Whilst price is trading above the 3rd Quarter 50% level I have a view of higher prices, especially if next week plays out either scenario of 2 or 3.

DOW S&P Weekly 13th June 2009

DOW S&P Monthly

MAY high breakout and expectation that price would continue higher into JUNE highs, but instead the past 5 days remained in a tight sideways pattern.

Last week’s view was for an early sell pattern set-up from Monday, but once the first 2 days remained above the Weekly 50% level, there was an expectation that prices would push higher.

At this stage there is a view of higher prices in 2009 in June, but with September futures running at a discount to the current SPOT contracts this often suggests lower prices.

In the short-term:- whilst price is above the Weekly 50% levels, the trend remains up.

Weekly 50% level is the same as last week (chart Below)

Below Weekly 50% level and it’s a pullback towards next months 50% level.

DOW S&P Weekly 6th June 2009

DOW S&P Monthly

US markets trading around MAY highs with the expectation of higher prices in June.

We have a MAY high break, which in theory should continue higher in the next month (June)

The support used should be viewed around the MAY levels

DOW 8550
S&P 920

If next week price is trading below those levels, then the view is that there could be a rotation down towards the monthly 50% levels.

DOW S&P Weekly

As we have seen over the past two months, the trend guide next week is simply the Weekly 50%level.

If the first two days next week closes below those levels then the UP trend could be over and a rotation downwards could be on the cards.

These Weekly 50% levels are valid trend guides and support, as they align with the MAY high breakout.

S&P 5-day pattern

Friday's reversal down from the highs was a probability pattern.

Whenever Friday's reverse down from the high, often the first two days of the new week pushes down into Support.

That support is the Weekly 50% levels.

That 2-day reversal down is simply going to begin with price trading below the 5-day 50% level on Monday, and how it trades down over the first 2 days should be an interest to all