DOW S&P Weekly 28th March 2009

DOW S&P Monthly

US markets continue to move upwards, and the trend for the 2nd Quarter is going to be defined by the April 50% level.....


DOW S&P Weekly

Any continuation upwards should complete the moves towards the Weekly highs.

That can happen early next week, but I'm factoring that over the next 2 days US markets continue to move sideways and then push upwards from early April.

Once those moves complete things begin the get tricky, as I'm not expecting too much more upside.....

S&P Monthly and Yearly

We can see in the CASH market the precise Monthly and Yearly lows on the S&P.

Those lows are extremely important, and any further upside can push towards 1037.

But that is more likely after a 2 month sideways pattern and the Month of MAY forms a double bottom above the April 50% level.

Then MAY should begin to move higher and JUNE should continue the move followed by a move towards 1137 sometime in the 3rd Quarter.

Therefore around the Weekly highs or even now I would be moving into CASH positions on stocks, especially Margin positions and TIME the new buying opportunity around MAY.

Because, if US markets reverse down from those Weekly highs and begin trading below the April 50% level later in the month, do not discount the market revisiting the Yearly lows one again.

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    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Weekly 21st March 2009



    S&P Monthly

    S&P completes the move into the March 50% level and stalls after reversing precisely off the double Monthly low pattern in March:- This is a text-book pattern.

    These 50% levels are and have been major trend guides, as all trends originate from 50% levels and then extend outward.

    But more importantly it's the Quarterly midpoint that's going to let traders know the trend direction:- does it continue higher or continue down into the Yearly low targets?

    I still have a lower Yearly target to complete the Primary trend, but it wouldn't surprise me to see US markets move up from April and into the 3-months highs.

    I mentioned week's ago that an early move down into the Monthly lows could provide a 25-30% up swing in the market, especially after a double monthly low pattern, and if that's the case that move would take it into April's highs.

    DOW S&P Weekly

    At this stage there is still over 1 week to go until April begins, and I'm looking for next week to simply move into a 5-day sideways pattern, with the Weekly 50% levels supporting price and the Monthly 50% level resisting price.

    The potential to continue upwards in April should find support around the 5-day lows and Weekly 50% level and have a higher Weekly close.

    If these lesser timeframe support zones don't hold, then the Monthly 50% level continues to be a major rejection pattern to lower prices from the 2nd Quarter.



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    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Weekly 14 feb 2009



    S&P Monthly

    As per Previous report, expectation a bottom was in place and that a counter-trend move would occur this week.

    Probable move towards the March 50% level, if it's a valid low in the first Quarter then prices should continue higher from the April 50% level towards the 3-month highs....


    DOW Monthly

    Even though this bottom was a high probability double bottom, which normally sends the market higher:- 3-month highs...

    The April 50% level is the trend guide.

    I'm still factoring in lower prices in 2009, and most likely 2nd quarter lows would provide a much more robust bear market low than the current March Monthlylow pattern.

    But we will come to that at the end of this month.



    DOW 5-day pattern


    Ideal 5-day pattern set-up started with the breakout of the 5-day 50% level into Wednesday's highs, and then the continuation higher from Thursday's support...


    and into a higher Weekly close..



    Posted by

    DOW S&P Weekly 7th March 2009

    S&P Monthly

    S&P Reached the March lows @ 699 on Friday and with late buying up from the lows.

    If US markets are going to remain supported over the next few weeks, Friday's lows were the most robust support zones in the medium term.

    However, it's still not the lows for 2009.

    We could move into another 4 weeks for support with a rotation up from these levels next week, or continue down in another breakout pattern sometime this month.

    The first stage of any reversal upwards would be price heading higher from 695 and trading above the Weekly 50% levels next week.


    DOW S&P Weekly

    There was an expectation of lower prices into March lows, and there was early support this week on Tuesday around the March lows.....


    but the Hook patterns below the Weekly lows sent both markets down into Friday's lows.


    As pointed out, we need to see US markets move above Tuesday's lows next week (March lows), and then verify any up trend by price moving and breaking the Weekly 50% level.




    S&P 5-day pattern

    Breakout of the Monday's lows sent the market down into Tuesday's lows.

    Tuesday followed with late Buying, which aligned with the March lows, however any follow through on the UP had to be verified by the 5-day 50% level on Wednesday.

    Once that failed, the markets followed with 5-day 50% rejection patterns towards the lows, as each day had a market path downward into Thursday and then Friday.

    Next Week:- the first stage of any up move to continue will be the 5-day 50% level next week.

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