S&P (e-mini ) 26th Dec 09 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

"After last week's price action I favour a continuation of the trend upwards, and towards the December highs.

Friday's reversal pattern off the lows now favours the probability of moving higher in the first 2-days. This will be verified by trading above the Weekly 50% levels, with a bias to move into the Weekly highs by Wednesday"....(Previous Weekly report)

Expected 2-day rise to begin the week playout with price reaching the Weekly highs by Wednesday and most likely continue towards the December highs next week.

The S&P 500 will complete the 4th Quarter target @ 1126 in the last week of the Quarter, and with the potential of continuing upwards in the first Quarter.

However, around those monthly highs in January I will be looking for any high probability patterns within the 5-day range to trade potential reversal pattern down towards the higher timeframe 50% levels.

DOW S&P 19th December 2009 Weekly

DOW S&P Monthly

After last week's price action I favor a continuation of the trend upwards, and towards the December highs.

Currently the market looks well supported, and at this stage markets look like continuing the Weekly rotating patterns of UP and DOWN 5-day patterns. (consolidation)


DOW S&P Weekly

Since the previous week’s HOOK pattern back above the Weekly 50% level I expected a move towards the Monthly highs within the first 3 days last Week.

I didn’t have a bearish set-up in the short-term as price wasn’t trading near resistance levels and price was above 50% levels, therefore the bias was to continue higher.

However, that bearish pattern appeared at midnight US time with Wednesday's close and Thursday's open pre-empting the change of the trend and break of short-term support: Weekly 50% levels.

I've seen these patterns before:- 2-days consolidation around the support levels and Wednesday moves higher but then drifts down and Thursday opens below the 5-day 50% level.

After 3-days of not going anywhere when the market should have continued higher on Wednesday, I could not be bullish when Thursday started the day below the 5-day 50% levels.

Thursday had a breakout of the 5-day low and as part of that move is a continuation of the trend down on Friday.

"There is a 5-day low breakout on Thursday and this normally favours a continuation down on Friday (below Weekly 50% levels)

I favour 50% level resistance & down but remaining inside the 5-day range on Friday"


If the trend was going to last longer then Friday shouldn't have found support around the 5-day lows, it should have broken out of the range once again.

Friday's reversal pattern off the lows now favors the probability of moving higher in the first 2-days. This will be verifed by trading above the Weekly 50% levels, with a bias to move into the Weekly highs by Wednesday.

In the short-term Monday's trading either side of the 5-day 50% level will verify whether that 2-day UP move is going to occur or not, as price could easily open below the Weekly 50% levels and push downward once again, breaking 3-week low support levels.

S&P (e-mini ) 12th Dec 09 Weekly

S&P monthly and Weekly


"At the start of next week I’m leaning towards a continuation down into Support levels, as part of Friday’s spike & resistance pattern, which often begins with the first 2-days moving down (2-day reversal)

If 'Support' doesn’t break on Tuesday (Wednesday trading below) then I would have to favour a higher weekly close thereafter.

Confirmed with a Daily ‘HOOK’ pattern back above the Weekly 50% level @ 1098 and a continuation towards the December highs"....Previous Weekly Report

This week's price action played out with the 2-day reversal on Monday and Tuesday, and then Thursday's break of 1098 (HOOK)

With the March contracts running at a discount to the current spot futures and next week's expiry, this can often push prices lower.

However, whilst the March 2010 contracts are trading above the 1098, the expectation is that that the trend will continue higher and follow the monthly dynamics into December highs.

DOW S&P 5th Dec 2009 Weekly

DOW S&P Monthly

Expectation of a 2-month wave upwards during this 3-month cycle:- November and into December.

There are monthly high breaks (closing above November highs), which confirms higher prices in December.

DOW S&P Weekly

I do have a view of higher prices in December, as part of a 2-month wave pattern upwards during this 3-month cycle, and that could occur using next week’s 50% level as support.

However, at the start of next week I’m leaning towards a continuation down into Support levels, as part of Friday’s spike & resistance pattern, which often begins with the first 2-days moving down (2-day reversal)

If 'Support' doesn’t break on Tuesday (Wednesday trading below) then I would have to favour a higher weekly close thereafter.

Confirmed with a Daily ‘HOOK’ pattern back above the Weekly 50% level and a continuation towards the December highs.

The key levels in an UP trend are the monthly 50% level and the 3-week lows, and that's the key support levels that need to hold, if Monday and Tuesday follows the 2-day reversal pattern.

DOW S&P 28th November 2009 Weekly

DOW & S&P Monthly

SET-UP B:- On most occasions will complete a double monthly high pattern, in this case December highs.

If or when those highs are reached, I can't see US markets continuing with the trend without a 3-month cycle reversal pattern in 2010.

DOW larger timeframe cycles

Because the larger cycles in the market, I favour a rotation down in 2010 back into the Yearly 50% levels.

I mentioned this probably over 6 months ago, that price will go looking for a retest of the breakout from the previous year (2008) and match Quarterly highs and then most likely reverse down in 2010.

The current high in the 4th Quarter is matching the 2008 breakout, and in my opinion should reverse back into higher timeframe 50% levels coming into the end of 2009 and/or early 2010.

DOW S&P Weekly

In a normal UP trend price would come down into the Weekly 50% levels and then continue with the trend. Once that occurs price will continue with the 2nd month wave pattern into the December highs.

The most robust pattern would have been a down move early last week on Monday and Tuesday last and then make a higher highs into Friday and push upwards into the December highs. This would complete the 2-month wave pattern in this 3-month cycle and we begin to look for larger cycle rotations back down later this month or early next Year.

Instead last week pushed upwards early and then reversed back down into the Weekly 50% level on Friday finding support.

What's the chance of the market moving higher?

Whenever the 3-week lows match the monthly 50% levels, these become robust support patterns that will often push the market higher in the following month. This exact same pattern occurred 2-months ago September and into October highs.

However, a major reversal pattern will always be confirmed when both levels break:- monthly 50% levels and 3-week lows.


In the short-term:-

The 50% level @ 1089.50 on the S&P 500 will define whether Monday pushes upwards and back into the 3-day cycle highs...

0r below 1089.50 price moves down into the 3-week lows, and Tuesday aligns with the start of the new month (December 50%)

Basically you don't want to be holding longs on the S&P on Tuesday with price is breaking SUPPORT.

S&P 500 Futures 21st Nov 09 Weekly

"Even though there is an expectation that price can continue towards 1126 in the 4th quarter, that might not happen next week,

The most robust pattern for any higher moves towards 1126 would be a choppy 5-day sideways pattern with the bias to drift down into the weekly 50% levels by next Friday...

And then continue higher the week after that using support"

Previous Weekly Report

SPI Monthly and Weekly

S&P 500 hits the Weekly highs and drifts down into a lower Friday close.

The question is now whether the S&P 500 continues upwards in December to complete the move @ 1126...

Or there is a similar pattern as October, and a last week reversal pattern down into the monthly 50% levels once again.

At this stage I'm treating the market as a reversal pattern until Tuesday.

If the market is going to go down then Monday should once again spike upwards but then drift back down into the same levels as Friday's lows.

If that happens then Tuesday could end up a trending down day and heading down as a mirror image of 4 weeks ago.

What about the move towards 1126?

If Tuesday continues down into 5-day lows, which will probably match the Weekly 50% level @ 1076 and price reverses off these levels and closes in the middle of the 5-day range....

Then my view is that markets remained supported with a bias to continue upwards into December.

S&P 500 Futures 14th Nov 09 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Expectation that last week’s SET-UP B would continue with a 3-day rally into the highs and then begin to hit resistance levels once again.

As my previous report mentioned, upside target in the 4th Quarter is 1126, and we can see a shift in the weekly range towards those highs next week.

However, even though there is an expectation that price can continue towards 1126, that might not happen next week, as there is a possibility of another 5-day sideways pattern around these levels:- higher timeframe resistance.

The most robust pattern for any higher moves towards 1126 would be a choppy 5-day sideways pattern with the bias to drift down into the weekly 50% levels by next Friday...

And then continue higher the week after that using support.

S&P 500 Futures 7th Nov 09 Weekly

S&P monthly

The previous week’s reversal down and close above the 3-week lows and November 50% levels were part of the B Set-up….

B Set-up is price continuing higher within the 4th Quarter and moving back towards the monthly highs once again, with the upper target around 1126

S&P Weekly

Even though there was an expectation of SET-UP B occuring, I need to verify any higher timeframe support using lesser timeframe patterns the validate the trend.

That had to be a cross-over of the Weekly 50% level and change of the 3-day cycle to verify support:- Thursday.

Next week is simply trading on the side of the weekly 50% levels with the expectation price is heading higher.

I would have preferred Friday to close on it's lows and then use a lower Monday open to trade longs using a number of 50% levels as support for a 3-day UP move.

However, the new week will begin from a higher Weekly open, which often begins with a 2-day reversal pattern, but because there are no lines of least resistance until much higher prices, then if it's above 1061 it's going up.

Below 1061 and it's part of a 2-day stall pattern

S&P 500 Futures 31st Oct 09 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Last Week of the month and I was looking for October highs to be resistance zones and for markets to pullback into the monthly 50% levels.

There were two set-ups....

SET-UP A:- was a 'crash pattern' that would see price all the way back down into the October 50% levels.

This is normally set-up with a crash on Tuesday and price trading below the 3-week lows.

SET_UP B was also a reversal, but only a short-term pullback into the November 50% levels and for the trend to continue higher.

Sadly SET-UP A didn’t continue down, as it would have provided far profits on the way down, and I had a robust swing points to trade longs from lower prices from next Friday.

The trend would continue down another week, but then provide support next Friday and for a large 3-day counter-trend rally back upwards the week after that.

Instead price has closed above the 3-week lows and trading on or near the November 50% levels.

At this stage price is going the be defined by the monthly 50% levels in November, and if price remains above the 3-week lows @ 1019.50, then November is going to remain range bound and consolidate (Weekly ranges up & down)

Which is perfect for short-term swing trading using the patterns in the 5-day range.

Below 1019.50 and price is following the move down into 996 (delayed Set-up A)

I would need to see another 5-days of trading to get a feel for how the rest of the 4th Quarter is going to trade.

S&P (e-mini ) 24th October Weekly

S&P monthly and Weekly

US markets reversed down on Friday and into a lower Friday close, but I expected more selling today with price to be trading or closing around the Weekly 50% level.

The 3-day sell cycle and higher Friday open normally favours a lower Weekly close as price is trading around monthly high resistance levels.

I only finished writing a section in my new book “ TIME, PRICE, SUPPORT, RESISTANCE, and reversal patterns after the completion of the 3-month cycles…

Each reversal down started from this exact same pattern:- higher Thursday close and Friday sell off.

And the trend continues down early next week with a break of the Weekly 50% level and a short-term mini collapse down into the Monthly 50% levels (SET-UP A)

Except this time the exact same pattern hasn't occurred as previously with the follow through down into the weekly 50% level not occurring

However, next week's 50% level is the one to watch with the potential SET-UP A in play.

Normally the break occurs in the first two days of the new week, so i'll have a
fair idea whether SET-UP A is going to occur, or price continues to consolidate and remain with SET-UP B.

S&P DOW Futures 17th Oct 09 Weekly

S&P Monthly

3rd Quarter thrust pattern from July 50% resulted in a breakout of the 3-month cycle in July.

A breakout in the 3-month cycle normally moves into a 3-month breakout pattern until this start of the next 3-month cycle in October.

There was an expectation that price had to come down into the 3-week lows early in October and then complete the break and extend pattern @ 1092.

Normally when these cycles complete price will move into a rotation pattern looking for the monthly 50% levels.

Sure the market can go higher, but at this stage I'm treating the Global Equity markets as range bound around upper resistance levels until November.

Set-up B is most likely with a rotation into the monthly 50% level in November and then higher moves into in the end of the Year.

SET-UP A is less likely to occur but it can happen because the monthly 50% level is currently much lower


DOW S&P Weekly

Next Week is simply a view of price being range bound between the Weekly 50% levels, and maybe travel as high as the Weekly highs.

Any moves during the week will be based on using the support or resistance levels within the 5-day pattern.

Bearish patterns around these October highs, will need to be verified with a Friday close below the Weekly 50& levels.

If price is trading below the Weekly 50% levels, then traders need to keep in mind that SET-UP A might be happening.

S&P 500 Weekly 10 October 2009

S&P Weekly


As per last Week's report:- expectation of a 2-day reversal from the 3-week lows, and once above 1039 the bias was to move upwards, as part of the 4th trend towards the October highs:- Higher Weekly close.

Next Week:- I would think that Monday and Tuesday will push up towards the Weekly highs, and then look for some rotation back down into the Weekly 50% level

S&P 500 Monthly

There is a breakout of the 3-monthly cycle in July and this pattern normally extends into the highs of the next 3-month cycle (October).

Things begin to get interesting once those highs complete in October because the Month of November and the creeping 50% level will let traders know whether the trend is going to go higher in the 4th Quarter, or the trend is going to reverse down and move into a 2-month rotation pattern back down (December)

S&P 500 Weekly 3rd October 2009

S&P Monthly

Two weeks ago I posted a chart that suggested that price would come down early in the 4th Quarter and then make a last move upwards in the 4th Quarter, and so far the first part has started.

My view over the next 3-months is based on the 4th Quarter 50% level holding and moving up into 2010 highs and then dropping back down

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Last week's view was for an early 2-day UP move from the lower Weekly open using the weekly 50% levels as support, however the September highs at 1062 resisted and my preferred pattern of moving down into the 3-week lows played out.

S&P has moved down into the 3-week lows (1012), which is the pattern that I
wanted to see happen at the start of October.

In a Bull market, this level will normally hold & form a support base over the next 3-days and then continue higher in the same month to complete the 3-monthly cycle:- break and extend pattern from July into October/November highs.

In a bull market what I would normally look for is the 3-day high range to drop below 1038-1039 and then trade longs on the break. This is based on verifying support on a large timeframe (weekly), and then validate support in a lesser timeframe:- 3-day high breakout.

However, the S&P isn’t in a bull-market trend, all it has done is reverse back into the Yearly 50% levels and reject back down. The Primary cycle and trend is defined by the Yearly timeframe.

If the Trend is going to continue down then the same pattern canoccur:- consolidate for 3-days below 1038 and then continue down once again towards the October 50% level @ 997

At this stage the important part was Friday remaining above1012 and Friday's 5-day low support.

S&P 500 Weekly 26th September 2009

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Last week's view was that price would rise up early in the first two day and then 1073 would play a major resistance role.

As per the Premium Report, there was the view that Wednesday's 5-day pattern set-up would reverse back down into the Weekly 50% levels and a lower Friday close.

There is also an expectation that 1038 in the S&P is a critical support level.

Based on the current price action I'm favouring a lower Weekly open with the bias to move upwards over the next 2-days.

At this stage I'm leaning to higher highs in October, but in the short-term I want to see where Wednesday closes (end of September).

At this stage I'm not convinced that the 4th Quarter will continue to move upwards of the next 3-months, but if it does it needs to begin to consolidate above 1073.

S&P 500 Weekly 19th September 2009

S&P Weekly

Last Week's view was a 2-day pullback into support from the previous Weekly highs (Friday)

This was completed Quicker than expected with the lower open and Monday support, and then the expected UP move towards the September highs.

The S&P is trading around the Weekly highs again, however this time I'm not so sure there will be an early Weekly pullback (unless price is below the 5-day 50% level).

S&P could push upwards early next week into Tuesday's highs, but things get interesting around these levels...

The S&P has moved into the 3 year 50% level @ 1073...

The S&P isn't in a new bull market, this price action is simply a reversal into last year's breakout, and the S&P would need to begin to trade and consolidate above 1073 to get comfortable that any UP trend will continue

The 4th Quarter pattern can see the S&P around 1139 in November-December this year...

But don't be surprised if the S&P is lower in 2010.....

Therefore the interesting pattern from next week is how the S&P is trading in relation to 1073 coming into the end of the 3rd Quarter and the start of October

In the short term support is 1038

S&P 500 Weekly 12th September 2009

S&P Monthly

US markets continue to rise within each month timeframe.

My preferred option was for August to hit 1038 and reverse down into the 50% levels and then continue higher in the 4th Quarter towards the 4th Quarter highs.

Instead price continues to push upwards as each monthly close is above the monthly highs in July and August.


S&P Weekly


The previous Week saw the S&P reverse down from 1038 and trading below support with the expectation price would continue down into the September 50% level...

However, with last Friday's close back above 1012, there was a high probability pattern that price would move towards 1041 this week...


Next week:- I would have to think there will be higher prices in September, but I'm looking for a 2-day reversal to begin the week from Friday's highs.

S&P 5-day pattern

S&P DOW Weekly 5th September 2009

S&P 500 Monthly

Once S&P had reached 1038, there is an expectation that this level will form a resistance zone for a number of weeks.

I do have a view of higher prices in the 4th Quarter, but for the most robust pattern would be for price to continue to move sideways until October and then continue upwards in October.

Once those 4th Quarter highs are reached, then I won't have another view until 2010.

1038 resistance until October

And those 4th Quarter highs my targets 1090+


DOW S&P Weekly

With this week's higher Weekly open and '2-day' sell pattern resulting in a break and close below the Weekly 50% level on Tuesday, my view was for a continuation down into the September 50% level.

Instead Friday has closed in the middle of the range.

Next Week:- Monday looks like pushing upwards into the 5-day highs, which could see the S&P near 1038 once again....

However I'm treating September as sideways pattern with Weekly timeframe rotations until October and the 4th Quarter.

S&P DOW Weekly 29th August 2009

S&P 500

3rd Quarter Thrust pattern into 1038 has played out and stalled.

Eventually I would look for the S&P to rotate back down into the 50% levels, but at this stage even though the S&P has hit resistance @ 1038, price looks to be pushing upwards in September.

Upside targets will be defined by the September monthly levels below...

DOW S&P Monthly

Once the S&P had hit 1038 I would have liked to see the Weekly timeframe close below 1012, as this would have set-up a rotation down into the September 50% levels.

A rotation down would be part of a retest of the July breakout and using the September 50% level as support for another leg upwards.

Because price isn't below 1012 and more than likely to close the Month above this level, I favour a move up into the September highs.

Note:- September highs on the DOW futures matches the Yearly 50% level for this market @ 9822

For US markets to move higher I would think another 5-days of sideways price action above the August highs will see a move upwards in September.

Support DOW 9366

S&P 1011

DOW S&P Weekly 22nd August 2009

S&P Weekly bar chart

S&P and DOW have continued up in the 3rd Quarter and the S&P will complete the Yearly 50% levels by next week @ 1037.50.

Potential continuation upwards in the 4th quarter to 1102, however at this stage 1037.50 is vewed as a Target and resistance level since March lows and the 3rd Quarter 'thrust' pattern.

DOW S&P Monthly

My view this week was that US markets would reverse down from the lower August highs on Monday and move down into the September 50% level, and then continue higher to complete the Yearly 50% level.

That was based on last Friday's lower Weekly close below both 9366 & 1012:- Higher Weekly 'sell' pattern

There was a sell off on Monday, however the Market turned around and continued higher.

DOW S&P Weekly

Monday Sold down breaking previous support levels, and if US markets were going to go down price should have tested the 5-day 50% level and continued down on Wednesday

However, the 5-day 50% levels were tested on Tuesday butWednesday provided a HOOK pattern:- higher Daily close.

And as per BOOK, Weekly HOOK patterns favour a higher Weekly close.

DOW S&P Weekly 15th August 2009

DOW S&P monthly

With this week's failure to close above the August highs....

In my opinion next week will begin a slide back towards the July breakout levels over the next few weeks.




DOW S&P Daily charts

Monday and maybe Tuesday could remain range bound in the same range, but I'll begin to look for a continuation down towards the Weekly 50% level.

Of course certain 5-day pattern set-ups should be used for any down moves next week.

At this stage I haven't factored more upside in August even though I think markets will move higher and complete their Yearly 50% levels later on.

If markets are going higher it will be dependant on Market dynamics for September and their range, which are currently matching the Yearly 50% levels.

DOW S&P Weekly 8th August 2009

DOW S&P Weekly

US markets completed the move into the August highs with Friday closing below.

My expectation is that prices will begin to slip back over a number of weeks towards the Weekly 50% levels.

The first sign of the reversal will be price trading below the 5-day 50% level, but won't be confirmed until there is a 5-day low breakout of the range.

However, I'm not expecting the US markets to drop like a 'thud', I’m expecting the US markets to zig-zag their way back down, mainly within 5-day pattern rotations.


DOW S&P Monthly

We can see the breakout of the July high and extension towards August highs:- Dilernia Principle.

My view is now to reverse back down and retest the July breakout in August...

That could travel as far as the monthly 50% level, but that Monthly 50% level might be September's 50% level.

However, the first stage of the pullback is the Weekly 50% level.

Once that occurs I'm looking for a continuation upwards to complete the moves into the Yearly 50% level as previously described many times in the past few months.

DOW S&P Weekly 1st August 2009

S&P 500

3rd Quarter Thrust pattern heading into the Yearly 50% level @ 1037.

Around 1037 is viewed as a resistance zone for 2009.

DOW S&P Monthly

Based on 'August' dynamics those yearly targets might not get reached until September.

At this stage there is a July high breakout and expectation that price should continue towards August highs.

Around August highs is viewed as resistance with a potential preversal back down into the monthly 50% level, but if that happens then my view is more upwards until 1037 is reached in the S&P


DOW S&P Weekly

It will depend on how price responds to a higher Weekly open and trading around the 5-day highs, which is when most trend reversals occur.

The minimium pullback based on this pattern is a 2-day reversal, but it's how far the 2-day reversal moves downward that will make a difference....Previous Weekly report.


Last Week started with a higher Weekly open and 2-day pullback, but failed to move below the 5-day 50% level resulting in the Trend remaining with an upwards bias.


Expectation of higher prices into August....

August 50% levels and Weekly 50& levels are Support.

Day traders:- trade the 5-day patterns

DOW S&P Weekly 25th July 2009

US Index Markets:- DOW S&P

3rd quarter thrust patterns sending markets higher with a target towards 9872 in the DOW and 1037 in the S&P 500.

DOW S&P Weekly

Thrust patterns in the 3rd Quarter have seen markets rally into their July highs without any short-term pullbacks..

There is still a view of higher prices in the 3rd Quarter, and July's highs will dynamically move upwards in August, so these resistance levels will disappear.

We are due for a short-term pullback into the Weekly 50% levels, but I
have seen 'Thrust' patterns before and they are what they are....Trending patterns.

And this trend can continue higher and follow the Weekly trends upwards into Next Week's highs.

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

US markets continued upwards on Friday because of the 5-day breakout from Thursday, resulting in a Weekly close above July highs.

There is a Quarterly Thrust Pattern that is pushing the Market higher, and because of this pattern price can continue to follow the Weekly ranges and push upwards next week.

Any trend reversals in the market often occur at the start of the new trading week, A higher weekly open that sells down towards Support, in this case the Weekly 50% level.

Therefore next week becomes critical on the direction of the market, even though I still think markets are going higher in the 3rd quarter.

It will depend on how price responds to a higher Weekly open and trading around the 5-day highs, which is when most trend reversals occur.

The minimium pullback based on this pattern is a 2-day reversal, but it's how far the 2-day reversal moves downward that will make a difference.

DOW S&P Monthly

Because when we apply the Montlhy ranges, we can see they have broken out and can continue to trend upwards in the last Week of the Month and follow a 'break & extend' pattern UP into August highs.

At this stage, any short-term 2 day pullback would need to see price trading below 8885 in the DOW and 960 S&P....

Otherwise it's going to continue upwards, which is what I think will happen anyway.

DOW S&P Weekly 18th July 2009

S&P Quarterly

Since the March and subsequent rally into the 2nd Quarter highs in June, I had an expectation that there would be a 3rd quarter UP move towards the Yearly 50% levels for a number of months

However, last week that expectation change because in the first week of the 3rd quarter 50% level price began to push downward and not up, so my view changed for a split second.

The first week down move was a ‘fake’ break, and now we have a potential Thrust pattern pushing the market towards the Yearly 50% level @ 1037.

The expectation remains that US markets and other global markets are heading higher in the 3rd Quarter towards the Yearly 50% levels, as all trends originate from 50% levels and push outward

DOW S&P Monthly

Expectation that around the level @ 7897 and 858 would swing US markets upwards over 3-days

"Around those levels might provide the first multi-day (3-day Swing) UP move towards the July and Weekly 50% level Resistance Zones…. ................Previous Week report"


Instead the lows were 8018 and 865, and Monday had closed above the Monthly 50% levels.

The 3-day UP swing was a random pattern, as it would have provided enough information on how markets were going to 'treat' the 3rd Quarter 50% levels....

Would they resist and continue downward into August? (2-month wave pattern)

Or would they close above and form a 'fake break' and new Thrust pattern UPwards? ( Primary Trend reversal pattern into the 50% levels)

By Tuesday it was a 'fake' break, and by Wednesday it was the start of a Thrust pattern that should continue higher into August

DOW S&P Weekly

There was an expectation of a 3-day UP swing into the Weekly 50% level, but when Wednesday started the move above the Weekly 50% level there was now a lower weekly open and Thrust pattern occurring pushing the market higher.

Next Weeks 50% level is now the trend guide on any continuation higher.

Above and it is continuing higher.

It would be ideal to get some short-term pullback into the Weekly 50% level early next week, but there isn't a 5-day pattern set-up to suggest that will happen, and the new week can continue higher.

DOW S&P Weekly 11th July 2009

DOW S&P Primary and Secondary Trends

As per the previous Report, the next move in the market was based on the direction price took in relation to the 3rd Quarter 50% levels.

The March low rally into the 2nd Quarter 50% levels (resistance) , has now resulted in a 3rd Quarter 50% level push down in early July, which has a danger of moving back towards the lows once again over the next two Quarters.

DOW S&P Monthly

Whenever price crosses over the monthly 50% level I factor in a 2-month wave pattern, and in this case that's down into August lows.

In July we have two monthly support levels @ the Green and Blue levels, which may or may not support price because of the larger trends pushing the market down.

However, if they do support price in July, i'm still factoring in a 2nd monthly down move in August at this stage.

S&P Weekly

July 50% level had 1 day support, and then price continued to move down into the Weekly lows, and will probably continue down into next week's weekly lows.

At this stage I would treat the July 50% level and Weekly 50% levels as resistance.

Those Weekly lows next week begin to' match' the first Monthly Support levels (Green), shown in the previous Chart.

Around those levels might provide the first multi-day (3-day Swing) UP move towards the July and Weekly 50% level Resistance Zones