DOW S&P Weekly Report 26th July 2008

Expectation that the DOW is heading lower towards the Yearly lows in 2008, but along the way there will be short-term counter-trend from July's lows and a move back towards the -3-week highs and then continue down....
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Weekly Report 12 July 2008


DOW Weekly

DOW and S&P have reversed off their July's lows, and the expectation remains that price is heading lower in 2008....

DOW Daily

DOW moved UP from the lows hit the Weekly highs and has reversed back down into the Weekly 50% level....



Last Week global markets reversed down from their highs, but this reversal pattern was just a rotation back down into the Weekly 50% level.

There is a big difference between a reversal down this week and previous weeks, it's occurring above the weekly 50% levels and not below.

Therefore next Week can continue higher:- lower Weekly open and rising higher after it's verified the 3-day cycle support on Friday.


If the market is going to rise higher and back towards the Monthly 50% level, then it's going to align with the start of August (SET-UP A)

If SET-UP A plays out then I'm looking for a move back down into the Yearly lows, but it might take a few weeks to unwind into a new down-trend.


SET-UP B:- is simply the down-trend continuing from August, which normally occurs with the market opening below the August balance point and rejects down.

S&P Weekly CASH

Expectation that the S&P is rotating UP into 1329 and then continue down into the Yearly lows....

S&P Weekly and Daily charts

And that's going to depend on how well the Weekly 50% level support price next week, and then the August direction early the following week...

We can see the reversal down into the 3-day cycle and support has been verified on Friday, which is occurring above the Weekly 50% level.

This pattern is normally a 'bullish pattern', especially in BULL markets, but this isn't a bull market and I still have the view that markets are heading lower in 2008, but it might take another 5-days of trading to see whether set-up A or B plays out.


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    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Weekly Report 19th July 2008

    DOW Weekly and Daily chart

    Expectation the US markets would reverse up from these lower levels and begin a rotation back towards the Monthly 50% levels.

    Expectation that these 50% levels are resistance zones, and more consolidation between last weeks lows and the 50% levels into August.


    S&P Daily....

    Weekly 50% level is the trend guide next week for any continuation higher into the 3-week highs.

    S&P 5-day pattern.

    The big difference between this reversal and the reversal in March is the 5-day range.

    There hasn't been a breakout of the 5-day highs, and price is following a much more subtle rotation upwards.

    Next Week:- I would use the 5-day highs as resistance, and simply trade the levels.

    The 5-day 50% level will be the trend guide for any continuation upwards, which means support should be verified by a lower daily close and then trade longs up from a lower daily open.

    In conclusion:- consolidation into August with an UP bias into the monthly 50% levels, and the potential of further weakness in the next month.


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    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Weekly Report 12th July 2008

    DOW Weekly Charts

    Expectation that the DOW is heading down towards the Yearly lows in 2008, but along the way there will be short-term counter-trend move back towards the 3-weeks highs and then continue down....



    DOW Daily chart

    On Friday the DOW reached the July's lows, and as pointed out, the first sign of a reversal is going to start with a breakout of the 5-day highs, and then a move above the Weekly 50% level, as it rotates back towards July's 50% level (3-week highs.)

    And we can now see that the Weekly 50% level has now dropped below last week's highs, which isn't that far away for the market to begin it's rotation upwards.

    S&P Daily

    Same applies with the S&P, price is consolidating around the Monthly and Weekly lows, and a break of the 5-day highs will begin to attract buyers once above the Weekly 50% level.....


    S&P Weekly

    However, any rotation upwards into 1329-33, and then expectation is that price is moving back down into 1173 to finally find a low in 2008...

    Note: any lows in 2008 is only seen as lows for this year, as i'm expecting lower lows in 2009 to finally bottom out the Bear Trend.




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    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Weekly Report 5th July 2008



    The previous Weekly Report gives far more detail, and explains the current price action in the markets and my overall view

    http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2008/06/dow-s-weekly-report-28th-june-2008.html

    DOW Daily chart...

    Expectation US markets would continue down into July's lows, and next week the Weekly lows are matching the lows in July.

    My view is that once price reaches July's lows, there is more of a chance that US markets will begin a short-term reversal pattern into July's 50% level.

    The first confirming pattern will be a breakout of the 5-day highs.....

    S&P Daily charts

    Once the breakout is confirmed, the 2nd confirming pattern is a reversal back towards the Weekly 50% levels in both markets, and then a continuation up towards the July 50% level in the following week after that.

    S&P 5-day pattern

    Once July's lows are reached, the trader needs to begin to optimise the trading on the BUY side using the 5-day patterns and the trend guide of the 5-day 50% level, along with the intra-day filters.

    Note: I'm still expecting further weakness in all global markets, and any reversal upwards is only seen as a short-term counter-trend move until the Yearly lows are reached in all markets.



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