S&P 500 E-mini Futures 28th February 2016

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly cycles

 

S&P has remained above the 2016 support levels without giving a clean indication as to whether the trend will continue higher for the rest of the year because of the lagging effect of the 'Break & Extend Pattern.

 

In the Short-tern (Next 4 weeks) keep an eye on the trends and set-ups within the Weekly cycles.

We can see in the chart of the right, the zig-zag patterns within each weekly 5-day cycle, as the market moves higher

 

Note:- If price continues up over the next 5-days price will hit the 2016 50% level, which is seen as a Robust resistance level:- 2000-2006

 

 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 10th February 2016 part 2

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

 

As noted in the previous report, the February 50% level would define the strength of the bounce in January. (dead cat)

 

We have another Break & Extend pattern playing out, with two possible patterns...

 

1. support around the 2016 lows for the next 6 weeks until March.

 

2. follows the break and extend pattern downward into March approx. 1740

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1st February 2016 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

 

Hallmarks of a double bottom have played out around the 2016 lows.

 However, even though it's playing out as expected, it's not a TEXT book pattern that screams BUY the market, because these lows should be occurring in March.

Therefore, it's more of a wait and see approach, and trade on the side of the February 50% level. If these are infact robust double lows, then price will need to consolidate above the FEB 50% and then continue upwards in March using the same dynamic 50% level.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 16th January 2016 Part 2

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly Cycles

 

Markets are now officially in a Bear Trend, and often those trends follow a 2-period cycle, and that trend is going to look for the next Primary Support zone @ 1849.

 This pattern now has all the hallmarks of forming a 'double bottom' (Previous Report)

 

When we reference price action with Dilernia Principles, we can see the Weekly Break-n-Extend Pattern taking it from last week's breakout @ 1988 down into this Week's low @ 1857. This also completes the move down into the 2016 lows & 'double Bottom", earlier than expected.

This Hallmark 'double bottom' isn't a precise TEXT bottom that 'screams' BUY the market, because any buying that 'might' appear from next week is going to struggle to move higher than 1921, as this level will likely form Resistance for the rest of the month.

There's enough information in my book using 5-day patterns that can validate short-term counter-trend moves.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 9 January 2016

S&P 500 Primary Cycles

 

Note:- there is still a Minor bear pattern that is lagging from the August breakout @ 2027.

If we subscribe to the Dilernia Principle of Break & Extend pattern, then price trend needs to reach the lagging Monthly support zone, which currently resides around 1921 (blue). (Previous Report)

 

This Week's dramatic sell-off wasn't unexpected, based on the Dilernia Principle of 'Break & Extend'.  This week's action now completes the pattern from the 2015 breakout @2027.

 

Going forward, we could see some computer generated buying support around 1921 from next week, (validate support using patterns in my book) and see price rise up into the 2016 50% level, which is more than likely going to form resistance for a few many months.

 

However, US markets are now officially in a Bear Trend, and often those trends follow a 2-period cycle, and that trend is going to look for the next Primary Support zone @ 1849.

 

This pattern now has all the hallmarks of forming a 'double bottom' around March 2016.

 

 

 

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 1st January 2016 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary Cycles 2016

The start of the new year brings in the new Primary Cycles for 2016.

US markets aren't showing the same bear trend as the Australian Market, which is being heavily weighed down because of the bear trends in commodity prices.

The S&P 500 remains in a Bull Trend, as long as it remains above the 2016 50% level level.

Therefore 1992-2000 is a major support zone.

Note:- there is still a Minor bear pattern that is lagging from the August breakout @ 2027.

If we subscribe to the Dilernia Principle of Break & Extend pattern, then price trend needs to reach the lagging Monthly support zone, which currently resides around 1921 (blue).

Therefore even though it might not fall below the 2016 Support zones (1992-2000), the next up leg in US markets might not begin some months from now, as that Monthly Support zone dynamically creep upwards.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 30th November 2015 Monthly Report

S&P 500 Primary & Weekly cycles

US Index markets look like they are well supported going into the end of the year and into the start of 2016.

Support:- 2000-2010, if there's early weakness in November. (Previous Report)

The S&P 500 moved down early in November, found support around 2000-2010, and now looks like it will try for a move up towards 2133 (Random Resistance)