S&P (e-mini ) 26th March 2011 Weekly

"The trend guide Weekly level @ 1271.50

Above and potential swing back towards 1293-1300, with the expectation the trend is continuing down"

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

My view was that the S&P would continue down towards the monthly lows because the market was trading below 1293 and the Yearly highs @ 1300.

1293 provided 3-days of resistance, along with 8.5 to 14 points of downward ranges, but without the follow through that I was expecting.

And everything changed with Thursday's daily close above the Weekly 50% level and also 1300.

Next Week:- In the short-term, whilst the market remains above 1300 the trend bias is to move upwards.

The S&P can continue to remain within a consolidation pattern around the Yearly highs @ 1300 and 1331, influenced by the levels in the Weekly range (White), until the start of April.

However, there are reports coming out that there are two large Macro Funds in the US that are now net long 250% on the S&P, therefore we can't discount the S&P following the monthly ranges once again (new highs by April)

Note:- If the market is once again below 1293/1300, then my view is that it will resume its move back down towards the monthly lows.

S&P (e-mini) 19th March 2011 Weekly

#2) If the Market closes below the March 50% level and Yearly highs @ 1300, then there is a possible reversal trend towards lower support.

If #2 occurs then we could see the market trading back around
1210

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Breakout pattern was confirmed last week, however the first target of 1229.75 wasn't reached.

We currently have the S&P in a breakout pattern, and I would continue to look for more weakness towards the first target...and as low as 1202-1210.

Next Week:- the trend guide is simply based on the Weekly level @ 1271.50

My view is that the trend will continue down...

however, the S&P could swing back towards the Weekly 50% level and retest the 2011 highs @ 1300.

At this stage I'd be surprised to see the S&P above 1300 for the rest of the current month of March

S&P (e-mini )12th March 2011 Weekly

What normally happens during each quarterly cycle after a double monthly high pattern (February), is that the trend will revisit the monthly 50% level and then continue higher, as seen in the Aussie market this week.

That might still happen next week, therefore it's a simple case of trading on the side of the Weekly 50% level

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

The S&P has reversed back into the March 50% levels and found support, with Fridays' reversal up from the daily lows, which matched 1283.50

There are two possible patterns that could play out for the rest of
the first Quarter and the month of March

#1) We have seen the market move down in an orderly fashion towards
the March 50% level, which forms support and then continues higher towards the 2nd quarter highs in April

#2) If the Market closes below the March 50% level and Yearly highs @ 1300, then there is a possible reversal trend towards lower support.

If #2 occurs then we could see the market trading back around
1210, helped by the events in the Middle East and also the rising
price of OIL.

S&P (e-mini ) 5th March 2011 Daily Weekly

Weekly support @ 1295 is simply a short-term counter trend move back to retest the breakout @ 1329-1331

If the market stalls @ 1331, and is once again trading below the Weekly 50% level, then traders need to keep an eye on the lower Weekly level @ 1304.

If the market begins trading below 1300-1304 , then I'll be looking for more weakness.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Last week saw an early sell off from 1331 back down into the support levels of 1300-1304.

However, Wednesday closed back above 1304, which resulted in the S&P moving into a consolidating 5-day range that closed near the Weekly 50% level

February's highs were a continuation of the resistance levels, which once again saw Friday sell down from 1331, but those levels disappear and push upwards next week, with a likely trend towards the MARCH highs.

What normally happens during each quarterly cycle after a double monthly high pattern (February), is that the trend will revisit the monthly 50% level and then continue higher, as seen in the Aussie market this week.

That might still happen next week, therefore it's a simple case of trading on the side of the Weekly 50% level, and looking for patterns within the daily range for 8.5 to 14 point ranges.

Note:- the S&P is trading around the 2011 highs in the Primary cycle.

Traders need to be aware of any market action below 1300, and especially the monthly 50% level, as this can often put pressure on the market to revisit the lower support levels in the first quarter

S&P (e-mini ) 26th February 2011 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

S&P was trading around the February highs, which were seen as resistance.

Weakness was verified on Tuesday, with a break of the Weekly level @ 1329-31, helped by Tuesday's rejection pattern (daily 50% level) as part of a 2-day reversal set-up.

As noted in the daily report on Thursday...Over the past 6 months the dynamic Weekly lows has supported the market during the current trend since September 2010, and 1295 was that level in February.

What we now have is a short-term counter-trend move back towards the Weekly 50% level @ 1322.50.

Things begin to get interesting from next week, as there are two larger timeframe patterns playing out.

#1) the market remains in an orderly pattern after this week's low @ 1295 and the trend continues back towards the Weekly highs, and then towards the MARCH highs.

#2) Weekly support @ 1295 is simply a short-term counter trend move back to retest the breakout @ 1329.

If the market stalls @ 1329-31, and is once again trading below the Weekly 50% level, then traders need to keep an eye on the lower Weekly level @ 1304.

If the market begins trading below 1300-1304 , then i'll be looking for more weakness.

Keep in Mind that the S&P 500 is already trading around the 2011 highs.

Weakness :- can remain within an orderly trend, and move towards the lower Monthly 50% levels....

Or any negative news of unrest spreading in the middle east towards Saudi Arabia, could have the potential to see a swift move back down towards the trailing 3-month lows @ 1209, and 1st Quarterly support...

Which was a similar pattern that occured last year, when the April highs reversed down into trailing Quarterly support levels, but for very different reasons.

S&P (e-mini ) 19th February 2011 Weekly

There are numerous instances when the levels will provide resistance of 8.5 to 14 points during the trading day, which is the statistical range.

Those levels are 1331, 1339 & 1347


S&P Monthly and Weekly

The past 5-days saw the market hit two of those resistance levels:- 1331 & 1339.

the first resistance level provided a 8.5 point reversal.

The 2nd resistance level at the Weekly highs stalled the market for nearly 2 days, until late after hours buying pushed the futures market higher on Friday.

And Monday should hit the 3rd resistance level @ 1347.


Next Week:-


1347 is still seen as resistance, but the trend could also continue higher towards next week's highs @ 1357.


Once again I'd look for weakness of 8.5 to 14 points towards the Weekly levels @ 1329.



1329/31 will be the trend guide for the rest of the current month of February, as it will help define whether the trend remains above monthly highs, and then continues towards higher highs in March...

or there is short-term weakness back down into traling support levels (Weekly lows)

S&P Primary cycle and monthly range

If February remains supported above 1329/31 and continues to trend upwards in an orderly manner within the weekly range...

The upside target during 2011, will be 1429

Note:- all larger timeframe patterns are always validated with lesser known timeframe patterns to help find trades, whether shorting resistance or trading support within the daily range.

S&P (e-mini ) 12th February 2011 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

The S&P has followed the monthly charts in February and has continued towards 1331.

once again these levels will be seen as resistance:- 1331, 1339 & 1347.

There are numerous instances when the levels will provide resistance of 8.5 to 14 points during the trading day, which is the statistical range.

However, getting any lasting selling patterns won't be verified unless the market is back below certain weekly levels.

And that Weekly level is 1314.50 (next week).

Note:- the February highs completes the double monthly high pattern during the current Quarterly cycle.

If trading stocks on the long side, I personally wouldn't want to be buying into the market as these highs.

I would once again wait until markets rotate back into trailing support levels.