DOW S&P 500 1st MAY 2010 Weekly

DOW S&P Monthly

Break and extend reversal pattern from April highs down into the monthly 50% levels failed to play out. Instead the April highs formed a resistance zone which now disappears and shifts higher in MAY

There is an expectation that price would continue towards the 2nd Quarter highs, but normally that occurs from the Monthly 50% levels in MAY.

Next week both markets align with the Red levels (single monthly 50% level & 3-week 50% level), and it becomes and each way bet on direction.

Whilst below those levels price is moving down into the MAY 50% levels:- and then it might take a few weeks for US markets to find support (3-week consolidation) and then continue upwards in June to complete the 2nd Quarter highs.

Or next week's continues upwards, as the April high resistance levels disappear and the MAY highs align with the 2nd Quarter highs in the S&P @ 1230.75

Daily report out on Monday

DOW S&P 24th April 2010 Weekly

DOW S&P Monthly

Double top high in the 2nd quarter has failed to materialise with Friday's close above the April highs in the DOW.

There is still 1 week to go until MAY begins, but at this stage the target of 1230 in the 2nd quarter for the S&P 500 is going to be reached much quicker than I expected.




DOW S&P Weekly

The entire double top scenario played out accordingly until Wednesday's failure to continue down into the 5-day lows, and with Friday's close above the 5-day highs this is likely going to push the Markets upwards on Monday.

Based on the Weekly timeframe & range, it might take another 2-weeks until 1230 is reached as price remains within the 5-day range.

There is still a slight chance that the 3-week lows are tested before 1230 is reached, but price would need to be trading below the weekly 50% level.

Daily report out on Monday.

DOW S&P 17th April 2010 Weekly

DOW S&P Monthly

2nd Quarter target in the S&P is 1230 and we can see the MAY highs are now aligning with the upper target.

However, we are now trading the completion of the break and extend pattern during this quarter and the expectation that price is moving back towards the 3-month 50% levels.

The most robust set-up for a continuation of the down trend is a double top on the DOW early next week @ 11082...

And the holding pattern is until the start of MAY.

The UP trend won't continue until the start of the next month.

There are three possible patterns....

A. moves down into the MAY 50% level and then continues higher, as per 4th Quarter in 2009

B. moves down into the April 50% level and then consolidates for a couple of weeks below and then continues back towards the highs, as per first Quarter in 2010.

C. follows a double monthly low move into major support levels and the 3-Quarterly 50% level.

Don't discount #3, because the US markets will revisit the 3-month lows during the year and it hasn't as yet. We saw a similiar pattern in the Aussie market in the first Quarter.


Therefore:- depending on the how many contracts traded the bias is to hold into the the first target @ 1139 and then into the close of the month.

If there is a breakout of the 3-week lows next week, then there should be another 'short' set-up using the 3-Week 50% level the week after.

DOW S&P 10th April 2010 Weekly

DOW and S&P Monthly

Break and extend patterns from March continuing towards April's highs.

These break and extend patterns have provided reversal patterns in each Quarter:- October's highs & January's highs, and I'll be looking for the same patterns around April's highs

2nd Quarter target @ 1130 in the S&P, but in the short-term around April's highs I will look for reversal patterns once again back towards the Monthly 50% levels.

Break and extend will complete, and once again it will depend on how much 'lag' time there is in the DOW, as it seems the S&P will reach 1201 earlier.

DOW S&P Weekly

Expected resistance around the Weekly highs played out on the S&P, but not in the DOW.

And the lag time provided friday's rally into higher highs and likely to continue upwards early next week.

DOW S&P 3rd April 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly

2nd Quarter target @ 1230

Along the way we are trading the intermeditate patterns within the Monthly timeframe and the lesser patterns within the Weekly timeframes.

DOW S&P Weekly

Next Week's highs are viewed as resistance in an UP trend.

Any rotations down will be verified using the patterns in the 5-day range.

Any larger rotations down will need to see the Weekly 50% levels fail to hold.

Support:- April 50% levels and 3-week lows

S&P (e-mini ) 27th March 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly

S&P upside target in 2010 is 1200-1255.

At this stage the upper target will be based on the closing price of the first Quarter currently @ 1223

Currently the market is trading around the first quarter highs @ 1177 and the March highs @ 1162

Next week can continue to remain around these resistance levels until the resistance levels shift at the end of next week.

The most ideal set-up to capture any longs in the market would be a rotation back towards the April 50% level.

S&P Weekly

Weekly 50% level is the trend guide and can see a push towards the highs again.

The medium term trend guide is the Weekly 50% level so it won't take much for the trend to change.

A pullback into the 3-Week lows which match the April 50% level should continue upwards in the 2nd Quarter.

DOW S&P 20th March 2010 Weekly

DOW S&P Weekly


Last Week we had the same short-term sell pattern on Friday, but this time it's matched with the March Highs @ 10725 in the DOW.

The DOW has been lagging the S&P in market dynamics, and the same thing occurred around January's highs. S&P hangs around the highs and waits until the DOW catches up and then they proceed to rotate back down into monthly 50% levels.

Once again i'll start next week with the expectation of a short-term reversal pattern and then see how it reacts to the Weekly 50% level.

However, I’m not expecting the same swift reversal as in January/February, but I would like to see some short–term pullback into higher timeframe 50% levels before the continuation of the UP trends in the 2nd Quarter.

DOW S&P 5-day pattern

As mentioned in Friday's report..." Ideally the best reversal trends align with Friday's highs and higher timeframe levels, but I'm not sure if Friday's highs will be reached.

It didn't align with the S&P but it did on the DOW, and because it's a Friday high I would begin to look for a continuation of the trend down (2-days).

How did I trade Friday?

I personally don't want to be up a night trading the US markets, so I'm confident in using the levels and place limit trades.

I went short on the DOW @ 10724 and 10750 and partial exit @ 10668 (and holding).

I went long on the S&P @ 1160. 25 looking for a 8 point UP move into Friday's highs...

I also placed short trades @ 1168.50 and 1177.

Basically I didn't want miss any potential reversal on Friday, but I also knew that the S&P could have continued into the Friday highs and Weekly highs:- 8.5 point up move

S&P continued higher but only until the DOW reached the Friday highs.

Stopped out on S&P @ 1158 (didn't get filled on shorts)

And DOW followed the reversal pattern and expectation the trend will continue towards the Weekly 50% level.

DOW Quarterly and Yearly

Our upside targets in the DOW for 2010 :- 11157- 11637

S&P Targets 1200- 1255

In conclusion:-

Any potential short-term reversal from March highs is part of a larger trend move towards those Yearly highs in the 2nd Quarter.