S&P 500 E-mini Futures 5th MAY 2012

S&P 500 Primary and Weekly cycles

Primary highs in 2012 have continued to form resistance in the S&P 500...

Resulting in the Failure of the montlhy 50% levels to hold support @ 1373...

and by the look of it, will try and rotate back towards the 2nd or 3rd Quarterly 50% levels, as trailing support.

Short-term:- Random Support is the area of interest for traders that believe that the S&P will continue to remain within an upward trend and consolidate.

Random support is also the area of interest for those traders that believe that the 2012 Primary cycle highs will push the trend lower, as is often the case when the month of MAY rolls around.

That move lower could be gradual, as it unwinds over the next 2-months with a downward bias into the start of the 3rd quarter.

or it could be swift and sharp, down into 1245 (support)

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 28th April 2012

S&P Weekly cycles

April 50% level Support should in theory continue to extend up towards the Weekly highs @ 1410, and then the following Weekly highs after that. (approx 1422).

That expectation will be define by the Weekly level @ 1395

if not, then trailing support is around the MAY 50% level, matched with the Weekly level.

Trading set-ups will be found within the patterns in the Daily cycles (5-day range)

S&P 500 E-mini 21st April 2012 Weekly Reports

S&P Weekly cycles

April 50% level @ 1361 continues to Support the trend....

and coming into the last week's of the month, traders should begin to look for patterns that suggest the trend is going to move up towards the MAY highs

or the Weekly 50% level sends price down into the Weekly lows @ 1347.

Next Week's trend guide is the Weekly 50% level @ 1380

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 14th April 2012

The reversal pattern is towards the Apirl 50% level (Weekly lows).

That down move will be defined by next week's level @ 1378.50...

1361-1364 is seen as a random Support zone

However, don't be surprised to see the Trend as low as 1347 (SUPPORT)... Previous Weekly Report

S&P Weekly Cycles

1378.50 pushed the market down into the Weekly lows & the April 50% level, which formed a random support zone for the Week.

As we can see, the Weekly cycles now suggest the Trend will continue down into next week's lows, which aligns with a potential Support zone during the current Month @ 1345/47

Trend guide 1369

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 7th April 2012

my view is that the trend will push up towards the April highs, as shown in the Weekly cycles.

However, once that's completed, the trend will be begin to reverse down towards the trailing monthly 50% levels, as the first targets:- 1361. (Previous Weekly Report)

S&P 500 Weekly cycles

Sadly the S&P didn't reach the highs @ 1424-28, as this was my ideal 'short-trade' zone for the current reversal towards the April 50% level.

As noted in last week's report, the reversal pattern  is towards the Apirl 50% level (Weekly lows).

That down move will be defined by next week's level @ 1378.50...

1378.50 will also be the trend guide on any short-term counter-trend move upwards within the 5-day cycle.

1361-1364 is seen as a random Support zone

However, don't be surprised to see the Trend as low as 1347 (SUPPORT) if it begins to trade below 1361

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 31st March 2012

as part of the price action from the Weekly lows @ 1338.50, my view is that the trend will continue up towards the April highs over the next couple of weeks.

So far everything has played out precisely using 'text-book patterns, and if that continues the expectation of the trend continuing higher will be determined by next week''s level @ 1395 towards the Weekly highs @ 1415 & beyond.... Previous Weekly Report

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

my view is that the trend will continue to push up towards the April highs, as shown in the Weekly cycles.

However, once that's completed, US markets will be begin to reverse down towards the trailing monthly 50% levels, as the first targets:- 1361.

That would be another text book pattern, as described in the book.

Note;- if next week begins to trade down from Monday and is trading below the Weekly 50% level (5-day low breakout) the reversal pattern downward might begin earlier than hoped for.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 24th March 2012

the ideal pattern would be a retest of last week's breakout which matches the Weekly levels (1382-85)

1382-85 is seen as support  (previous Weekly Report)

S&P Weekly Cycles

My view was that the S&P would come back and retest last week's breakout @ 1382-85 after reaching the March highs @ 1402

And as part of the price action from the Weekly lows @ 1338.50, my view is that the trend will continue up towards the April highs over the new couple of weeks.

So far everything has played out precisely using 'text-book patterns, and if that continues the expectation of the trend continuing higher will be determined by next week''s level @ 1395 towards the Weekly highs @ 1415 & beyond

therefore 1395 will define whether my view will play out....

or not, and the market rotates down over the next 5-days (lower Friday close)