S&P Futures E-mini 13th August 2011 Weekly

the trend can often drop down from those levels and continue down into the August lows later this Month @ 1115


Those August lows, will once again be another long term swing point (BUY), that should see the market stabilise and move upwards into a large consolidation pattern for the rest of 2011.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Primary and Monthly cycles

Last Week’s price action was exaggerated on the news of the credit downgrade in the US, but we completed the move into the August lows @ 1115 quicker than expected

Because of the downgrade and the subsequent move into the August lows,  the price action has been in fast forward, and this gives a couple of conflicting patterns.

If it followed my original analysis and moved down into the August lows in the last week of the month  and dipped slightly lower in September, then the upward reversal pattern would normally last for the next 2-3 months, as it follows the monthly cycles:- October and then into November's highs.

Weekly report continues below....

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

However, let me stick to the original analysis, and the expectation of a 3rd week rally.

The 3rd week is next week, and begins with price trading above the Primary support levels @ 1169/73, combined with price trading inside the Weekly range @ 1169.

A 3rd Week rally normally begins with a 3 day move, as part of retesting the previous Weekly breakout.

That previous breakout is 1271, but it might fail at the August 50% level @ 1245.

If that occurs, then traders should begin to look for shorts once again from Thursday onwards.

And if everything goes to plan, the market slowly unwinds and begins another downward leg into September lows.

Note;- the conflicting pattern won't be known until September begins, because the next monthly 50% level will decide whether the trend makes a move towards the September lows..

or actually forms support, and the market follows the 2-3 month  upward move.

In the short-term:-  if the market rallies upwards for the next 3-days and closes on its highs by Wednesday, then from Thursday onwards becomes interesting.
 
                                                                      Trend guide 1169/1173

S&P 500 Emini futures 6th August 2011 Weekly

S&P Primary and Weekly cycles

August 50% level rejection pattern @ 1311, has led to as 'thrust' pattern downward:- top-to-bottom 5-day cycle.

This then resulted in a breakout of the Weekly lows @ 1272, and also below the 3rd quarterly 50% level @ 1266

Once that occured, then the Primary cycle takes over, sending the S&P 500 down into the primary support levels @ 1169/1273

1169/73 is a major support, and the 3rd Quarterly 50% level @ 1266 is a major resistance zone over the next 2-months.

Even though the trend has found support, my view is that it will double dip into August lows.



In my new book there is a section that clearly describes the current market conditions from pages 120 to 130, which spells out the possible price action over the next 2-3weeks, as described below..

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

If the current price action follows those text-book patterns, then the trend should move up into the Weekly level and then continue down into this week's lows @ 1144.

That pattern will complete the break and extend pattern from last week's lows @ 1272

If that plays out, then the following week should begin with a 3-5 day rally, that could go as high as the Quartertly 50% level @ 1266

Once that plays out, then the trend can often drop down from those levels and continue down into the August lows later this Month @ 1115

Those August lows, will once again be another long term swing point (BUY), that should see the market stabilise and move upwards into a large consolidation pattern for the rest of 2011.

Therefore over the next 3-weeks there should be a lot of volatility, and if it plays out as described then there's good money to be made
 
Of course it might not do any of that., but lets see how it goes.

Footnote:- This week's report was written before Standard and Poor downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA+, how it changes the analysis over the next 5-days is yet to be seen

S&P (E-mini) 30th July 2011 Weekly

there is a stench hanging over the S&P if the US fails to raise it’s debt ceiling coming into August.... and if for some reason that happens then it could easily break the support levels (Weekly lows)...

(Previous Weekly report)

S&P Weekly cycles

Nothing has been resolved on the debt ceiling, and weakness in the S&P 500 was set-up on Wednesday with a break of the 5-day channel @ 1327, resulting  in a break out of the 5-day lows, and further weakness with the market closing below the Weekly lows.
 
And if nothing is resolved regarding the debt ceiling over the weekend, then the trend should continue to move down into the Weekly lows, and the 3rd quarter 50% level 1266. (random support)
 
Next Week:-  if trading the S&P 500 on a daily basis, then the levels in the Weekly and Monthly ranges should be used, along with the patterns in the 5-day range, whilst focusing on  taking 8.5 to 14-point range movements.

S&P (E-mini) 23rd July 2011 Weekly report

Trend guide is simply based on the Weekly 50% level @ 1318...whilst trading set-ups within the 5-day range....Next week:- likely to remain range bound between the Weekly levels. (previous Weekly report)

S&P Weekly cycles

S&P remained within the Weekly levels, with Wednesday’s price action helping to set-up a move towards the upper weekly level @ 1346.

Next Week;- there is a stench hanging over the S&P if the US fails to raise it’s debt coming in August.

If for some reason that happens then it could easily break the support levels (Weekly lows)

However, if I concentrate of the current price action alone, then my view is that next week will rise upwards, and continue to move towards the highs in July @ 1374.

Whilst looking for set-ups within the patterns in the 5-day range to help validate that view.

S&P (e-mini ) 16th July 2011 WEEKLY

A weak pattern won’t eventuate unless the market breaks out of the 5-day lows and begins trading below 1325... be aware of patterns within the 5-day range, that may show set-ups with potential weakness using the intra-day daily channels.

 Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

The 5-day low breakout occurred on Monday, and the S&P remained below 1325 for the rest of the week.

However, the trend didn't continue down towards 1266, but it instead remained supported around its Weekly 50% level.

Therefore next week's trend guide is simply based on the Weekly 50% level @ 1318...whilst trading set-ups within the 5-day range.

Next week:-  likely to remain range bound between the Weekly levels.

And what's going to push the S&P in either direction will be determined by the decision around raising the debt ceiling in August

If they raise it, it should help lift the market, and if they don't it could push the S&P down towards 1266

S&P (e-mini ) 9th July 2011 WEEKLY

S&P will travel to next week’s highs @ 1350 as part of the break and extend pattern from 1295

my view is that 1348-52 will act as resistance for the next 3-5 days....

 Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

S&P completed the break and extend pattern from 1295 into 1350, which formed resistance on Friday.

The Trend in the S&P remains stable, as long as it remains above 1325 and the 3rd quarterly level.

And based on the current price action, the market looks like it will continue towards next week’s highs, and then as high as the July level @ 1374

A weak pattern won’t eventuate unless the market breaks out of the 5-day lows and begins trading below 1325, and there isn’t a set-up in the current cycles that’s going to pre-empt that break.

Therefore the trend bias is to continue upward, but be aware of patterns within the 5-day range, that may show set-ups with potential weakness using the intra-day daily channels.

S&P (e-mini ) 2nd July 2011 WEEKLY

there is enough reason why the S&P could rise upwards in the last week of the 2nd Quarter.

and if the S&P rises upwards, then the 3rd Quarterly high around 1325 will probably form resistance and push the market lower once again.(Previous Weekly report)

S&P monthly and Weekly cycles.

The confirming pattern to validate the reversal pattern started with a breakout of the Weekly highs @ 1295 on Wednesday

There were two patterns that were going to play out :-

#1 how price responds to the Monthly 50% levels? and as we can see the market opened above the July 50% level @ 1313

#2 how far price travels as part of the Weekly break and extend pattern?

The answer is that the S&P will travel to next week’s highs @ 1350 as part of the break and extend pattern from 1295

Fundamentally, some would say W.T.F. just happened, but technically the price action is not unusual, even though the speed of the move even caught me out, with the lack of minor intra-day pullbacks within the daily range (5-day pattern trading & 8.5 points)

Next Week: - my view is that 1348-52 will act as resistance for the next 3-5 days....

And then the 3rd quarterly level @ 1325 comes into play...

1325 will define whether the trend continues higher, and follows the monthly cycles towards new highs

or

whether the trend again moves into another 3-month cycle that consolidates ‘sideways’ until the start of the next Quarter using the levels shown above.