S&P (e-mini) 7th MAY 2011 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

As per last Week's report, the initial view was that there would be a 2-day reversal pattern back down into 1347, which will then be the guide on whether the trend continues down into the MAY 50% level or not.

I also pointed out in last week's report...

At this stage QE2 remains until the end of June, therefore it's likely to underpin the current trend...

therefore, unless it  is  trading below the Weekly and monthly 50% level @ 1324.50, the trend bias remains stable.

In 2010 we saw a 'flash crash' pattern in the first week or MAY, and in 2011 we have weakness once again in the first week of MAY, however, this time it continues to remain above support levels, helped by the market being above the Yearly highs in 2011 (1301-1331)


There are two possible patterns that can play out for the rest of the month....
 
#1) Remains consolidating above 1324.50 for the next few weeks until the start of June, and then makes a play for the monthly highs
 
#2) the trend continues down using the Weekly 50% level as the trend guide, and follows the Weekly range towards lower lows:- 1310.75 and then 1291.25
 
 

S&P (e-mini ) 30th April 2011 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Once price began trading above 1337, the trend bias was to continue up into the April highs, and is now likely to continue up towards next week's  highs, & also the highs in MAY...

There are two possible pattern early next week....

#1) next week starts with a 2-day reversal pattern (remains below 1365), and retests  last week's breakout @ 1343-36, and then continues upwards from Wednesday towards this week's highs

#2) the trend continues up towards the Weekly highs by Monday, which is then seen as resistance...

if Monday hits 1375.50 and stalls, then I'll once again look for a reversal pattern back down into 1343-1346.

Trend guide & Random support 1343-1346

At this stage QE2 remains until the end of June, therefore it's likely to underpin the current trend...

therefore, unless it breaks out of the 5-day lows, and is also trading below the Weekly and monthly 50% level @ 1324.50, the trend bias remains stable.  

S&P (e-mini ) 23rd April 2011 Weekly

Because of the shift in the Weekly lows, there is now greater chance of a larger reversal pattern towards lower Support levels @ 1247-57, if there is a daily close below those Weekly lows @ 1299


Previous Weekly report

S&P500 Primary and Weekly

Last week began with a Sell off from the Weekly 50% level and a daily close below support levels and the Weekly lows @ 1299.

As noted in the previous weekly report, this pattern would normally have set up more weakness for a reversal pattern towards lower support levels in April @ 1247-57.

However, the following day followed a ‘fake-break’ pattern, which then rallied back towards the Weekly highs.

                                              As we can see in the Primary cycle…(left chart)

The S&P 500 is once again trading around the upper Yearly level @ 1331, which has formed resistance during the months of February, March, & currently in April

The S&P may remain below this level, and once again try for another breakout pattern below the weekly lows for a move towards trailing support levels, as QE2 comes to an end

or last week’s price action and fake break pattern sees the trend continue towards the monthly highs in April & then MAY @ 1356-1365.

S&P (e-mini ) 16th April 2011 Weekly

I favour the initial move down and back towards the monthly 50% level in April.

That 50% level around 1304-1305 is a critical support level...

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Selling pressure earlier this week with a change in the Weekly dynamic levels from 1322 to 1330.50

However, the S&P continues to remain above support, and based on the Weekly levels likely to push upwards in the short-term using the Weekly 50% @ 1319.50 as a trend guide.

The market continues to consolidate between the Yearly highs @ 1300-1331, and we can also see the Weekly lows have now caught up with the current Support levels.

AAt this stage I haven't factored in the S&P moving down into the lower 2nd Quarter support levels @ 1246-54.....(Previous weekly report)

Because of the shift in the Weekly lows, there is now greater chance of a larger reversal pattern towards lower Support levels @ 1247-57, if there is a daily close below those Weekly lows @ 1299

In conclusion:- trade on the side of the Weekly 50% level in the short-term

S&P (e-mini ) 9th April 2011 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

S&P has remained above the Weekly level @ 1322 forming a 'no control' 5-day pattern

A 'No control' pattern is when the trading range closes near where it opens, mostly in the middle.

When this happens the following week will often extend outward over the next 5-days. (trending)

Because the trend is above the monthly 50% levels, that move could be up, if the market is trading above 1331...

However, I favour the initial move being down and back towards the monthly 50% level in April.

That 50% level around 1304-1305 is a critical support level...

And at this stage I haven't factored in the S&P moving down into the lower 2nd Quarter support levels @ 1246-54.....

But it can happen

S&P (e-mini ) 2nd April 2011 Weekly

In the short-term, whilst the market remains above 1300 the trend bias is to move upwards.

The S&P can continue to remain within a consolidation pattern around the Yearly highs @ 1300 and 1331, influenced by the levels in the Weekly range (White), until the start of April.



Previous Weekly Report





S&P Monthly and Weekly

The Trend bias has resumed its upward trend remaining between 1300 and 1331.

The start of the 2nd Quarter, can now see further gains towards next week’s highs and then the April highs @ 1352+

However, based on the current price action on Friday, there’s the possible short-term reversal pattern of 2-days that could see the market revisit the April 50% level @ 1304.

Trailing support remains the Weekly 50% level @ 1296

In conclusion: - it’s a simple case of being on the right side of 1321.75 for next week

S&P (e-mini ) 26th March 2011 Weekly

"The trend guide Weekly level @ 1271.50

Above and potential swing back towards 1293-1300, with the expectation the trend is continuing down"

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

My view was that the S&P would continue down towards the monthly lows because the market was trading below 1293 and the Yearly highs @ 1300.

1293 provided 3-days of resistance, along with 8.5 to 14 points of downward ranges, but without the follow through that I was expecting.

And everything changed with Thursday's daily close above the Weekly 50% level and also 1300.

Next Week:- In the short-term, whilst the market remains above 1300 the trend bias is to move upwards.

The S&P can continue to remain within a consolidation pattern around the Yearly highs @ 1300 and 1331, influenced by the levels in the Weekly range (White), until the start of April.

However, there are reports coming out that there are two large Macro Funds in the US that are now net long 250% on the S&P, therefore we can't discount the S&P following the monthly ranges once again (new highs by April)

Note:- If the market is once again below 1293/1300, then my view is that it will resume its move back down towards the monthly lows.