S&P (e-mini ) 19 June 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

This week has seen the 3-week highs and June 50% level stall the market from rising, but not provide any major selling, and we can now see the Weekly timeframe close above 1106.50.

This has the potential to send the S&P upwards over the next 2-weeks... (July)

Support will be defined by 1105.75 for next week, and likely to follow the Weekly range upwards.

If next week decides to trend upwards then the Weekly highs have less probability to stall the market from Thursday onwards, and the 5-day highs have less probability to provide reversal patterns.

This week's close failed to move to the 5-day highs on Friday, and because of this pattern I don't have the view that next week will begin with a 2-day reversal pattern and move below 1105.75

Next Week is simply going to be defined by the June 50% level and 1105.75.

How far the next 2-weeks rises is random, but whilst above 1105.75 the trend is up until the start of the 3rd Quarter and the start of a new 3-month cycle.

S&P (e-mini ) 12 June 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly and Weekly

S&P trading around higher timeframe support levels (3-Quarterly 50% levels 1074) but below the June 50% levels.

At this stage I'm treating the S&P as hitting resistance around the 3-Week highs and 3-month 50% levels in June.

Often the 3-week highs and 3-months 50% levels can send the trend back down, or at least keep June consolidating below the June 50% levels @ 1111.50

S&P (e-mini ) 5th June 2010 Weekly

S&P Yearly and Quarterly

As per Previous Weekly report, there is a chance that the S&P continues down towards the Yearly 50% level in the 3rd Quarter.

Friday has closed below the 3-Quarterly 50% level, which is bearish.....

And at this stage, whilst the market remains below the 3-month 50% level the bias is down, but the speed of the move towards 969 is unknown.

S&P Monthly and Weekly

2-month wave pattern completes around the June lows.

If the market was going to 'trend' down into 969 I would have preferred to have seen Friday closed near the June 50% level and then sold off from a higher Weekly open:- trust pattern.

Because of the current patterns we could end up with minor swing patterns (UP) next week, using 1049 as a random support level.

However, the overall trend remains bearish and pushing lower.

S&P500 (e-mini ) 29th MAY 2010 Weekly

S&P Yearly, Quarterly and Monthly

S&P Trading around the 3-Quarterly 50% level and the MAY lows, and I expected a little more upside this week for a move towards the June 50% levels that begin next week.

As explained in last week's report there is a potential 2nd month down move in June from the monthly 50% levels, and some of the biggest sell-offs occur in the last month of the Quarter when price begins from the monthly 50% level.

3d Quarter 'thrust' pattern into the 2009 Yearly 50% level has completed from the March lows.

Any further UP moves would need to align with the 4th Quarter 50% level, and continue up from the 4th quarter 50% level and into the highs, which aligns with the Yearly 2010 highs.

If that happens then price can push back down into the Yearly 50% level in 2010 and consolidate for a number of Quarters during next year and move into a long-term sideways pattern until the 2nd half of 2010"...... Weekly report 15th August 2009

What happens if the S&P follows last year's forecast?

if the S&P 500 follows the same pattern and moves down into the 2010 50% level, that is 100 points lower or 1000 points in the DOW.

In conclusion:- It's too early to get comfortable with current support levels, as there are a couple of lesser timeframes that still have bearish patterns.

Note:- the Weekly timeframe will still remain within the MAY timeframe and won't begin until the week after, which may result in another 5-day sideways pattern

S&P (e-mini ) 22nd MAY 2010 Weekly

S&P Weekly

The past 2 weeks has seen precise text book patterns based on the Weekly low breakout @ 1173 and subsequent price action down into this week's lows @ 1055.

And as per Friday's Daily report....

"If and when those Weekly lows and Friday lows occur I'm expecting a larger swing pattern back towards the June 50% levels"

Therefore our support next week is 1076.25

and the rotation is back towards the Weekly 50% levels.

S&P monthly

Current support is valid during MAY and any rotation is towards the June 50% level.

Once price reaches the June 50% level there is a possible continuation down in the following month

Why?

Whenever there is a Monthly high reversal pattern they usually move in 2-month wave patterns.

Most reversal patterns occur in the previous month and then follow the trend down into the current month, find support and then the trend continues higher once above the monthly 50% level.

This reversal pattern started in MAY therefore June becomes the 2nd month.

Therefore any reversal back towards the June 50% level must be viewed as resistance until proven wrong.

S&P Quarterly and Yearly

The basic premise on the Quarterly and Yearly timeframes is that any subsequent weakness in June or trading below the Quarterly 50% level @ 1074...

and then trend is to continue down towards the Yearly 50% level @ 969 in the 3rd Quarter.

S&P (e-mini ) 15th MAY 2010 Weekly

S&P Monthly

S&P continues to trade below the Monthly 50% level, and at this stage we have an expectation that price is rotating down towards the June lows.

The current 'major' support levels around the 3-quarterly 50% level & MAY lows are extremely robust, and it doesn't necessarily mean that the trend will continue down into a double monthly low but there are a number of patterns in the lesser timeframes that will provide some pre-emptive moves.


S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Last week's price action was 'pre-emptive' as it played out as expected.

A number of precise text book patterns over the past 2 weeks.

Previous Week saw a Weekly low breakout and trend spike down into the
MAY lows.

Pre-emptive:- This week saw the 3-day counter-trend move beginning from the
Weekly 50% level and retesting the previous Weekly low breakout and then
a Thursday sell pattern with the expectation of a lower Friday close.

Normally Thursday has a much greater range on the
downside (trading below the monthly 50% levels once again), but Friday’s break verified the downward move into the Weekly 50% level and Friday’s lows"


Next Week:- Friday's 5-day low support can often provide a 2-day reversal pattern upwards using the Weekly 50% level as a guide.

However, I'm not sure that the market will continue much further from Wednesday.

The reason being is that a Weekly breakout (1168-73 previous Week), will often extend down towards the Weekly lows.

Currently that hasn't happened, which means anything below the Weekly 50% level and the bias is to continue towards the Weekly lows either next week or it could take a number of weeks to continue to drift down into the Weekly lows.

DOW S&P 8th MAY 2010 Weekly

DOW S&P Monthly

As mentioned a few weeks ago...(17th April)

"The UP trend won't continue until the start of the next month after revisiting the MAY 50& levels

or

# follows a double monthly low move into major support levels and the Quarterly 50% levels.(Yellow)

Don't discount this, because the US markets will revisit the 3-month lows during the year and it hasn't as yet. "

Treat US markets as part of a double monthly low pattern into June, using the MAY 50% levels as resistance.

That means, I'm expecting these levels to hold support during MAY, but possibly double dip into lower lows during June.

DOW S&P Weekly

There is a breakout of the weekly lows, which should continue down into the Weekly lows this week.

If that happens then we look for a swing back towards the MAY 50% levels.

Note:- If Monday closes higher but below the Weekly 50% level, I would normally look at this price action as a 'short' trade:- sell resistance and a higher daily open on Tuesday

However, I have also see these exact pattern continue higher and move into a 3-day UP move to retest the previous Weekly lows.

That means that by Wednesday price can be trading above the MAY 50% level, but from Thursday onwards look for a move back down into the lows.