S&P 500 Weekly 3rd October 2009

S&P Monthly

Two weeks ago I posted a chart that suggested that price would come down early in the 4th Quarter and then make a last move upwards in the 4th Quarter, and so far the first part has started.

My view over the next 3-months is based on the 4th Quarter 50% level holding and moving up into 2010 highs and then dropping back down

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Last week's view was for an early 2-day UP move from the lower Weekly open using the weekly 50% levels as support, however the September highs at 1062 resisted and my preferred pattern of moving down into the 3-week lows played out.

S&P has moved down into the 3-week lows (1012), which is the pattern that I
wanted to see happen at the start of October.

In a Bull market, this level will normally hold & form a support base over the next 3-days and then continue higher in the same month to complete the 3-monthly cycle:- break and extend pattern from July into October/November highs.

In a bull market what I would normally look for is the 3-day high range to drop below 1038-1039 and then trade longs on the break. This is based on verifying support on a large timeframe (weekly), and then validate support in a lesser timeframe:- 3-day high breakout.

However, the S&P isn’t in a bull-market trend, all it has done is reverse back into the Yearly 50% levels and reject back down. The Primary cycle and trend is defined by the Yearly timeframe.

If the Trend is going to continue down then the same pattern canoccur:- consolidate for 3-days below 1038 and then continue down once again towards the October 50% level @ 997

At this stage the important part was Friday remaining above1012 and Friday's 5-day low support.

S&P 500 Weekly 26th September 2009

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Last week's view was that price would rise up early in the first two day and then 1073 would play a major resistance role.

As per the Premium Report, there was the view that Wednesday's 5-day pattern set-up would reverse back down into the Weekly 50% levels and a lower Friday close.

There is also an expectation that 1038 in the S&P is a critical support level.

Based on the current price action I'm favouring a lower Weekly open with the bias to move upwards over the next 2-days.

At this stage I'm leaning to higher highs in October, but in the short-term I want to see where Wednesday closes (end of September).

At this stage I'm not convinced that the 4th Quarter will continue to move upwards of the next 3-months, but if it does it needs to begin to consolidate above 1073.

S&P 500 Weekly 19th September 2009

S&P Weekly

Last Week's view was a 2-day pullback into support from the previous Weekly highs (Friday)

This was completed Quicker than expected with the lower open and Monday support, and then the expected UP move towards the September highs.

The S&P is trading around the Weekly highs again, however this time I'm not so sure there will be an early Weekly pullback (unless price is below the 5-day 50% level).

S&P could push upwards early next week into Tuesday's highs, but things get interesting around these levels...

The S&P has moved into the 3 year 50% level @ 1073...

The S&P isn't in a new bull market, this price action is simply a reversal into last year's breakout, and the S&P would need to begin to trade and consolidate above 1073 to get comfortable that any UP trend will continue

The 4th Quarter pattern can see the S&P around 1139 in November-December this year...

But don't be surprised if the S&P is lower in 2010.....

Therefore the interesting pattern from next week is how the S&P is trading in relation to 1073 coming into the end of the 3rd Quarter and the start of October

In the short term support is 1038

S&P 500 Weekly 12th September 2009

S&P Monthly

US markets continue to rise within each month timeframe.

My preferred option was for August to hit 1038 and reverse down into the 50% levels and then continue higher in the 4th Quarter towards the 4th Quarter highs.

Instead price continues to push upwards as each monthly close is above the monthly highs in July and August.


S&P Weekly


The previous Week saw the S&P reverse down from 1038 and trading below support with the expectation price would continue down into the September 50% level...

However, with last Friday's close back above 1012, there was a high probability pattern that price would move towards 1041 this week...


Next week:- I would have to think there will be higher prices in September, but I'm looking for a 2-day reversal to begin the week from Friday's highs.

S&P 5-day pattern

S&P DOW Weekly 5th September 2009

S&P 500 Monthly

Once S&P had reached 1038, there is an expectation that this level will form a resistance zone for a number of weeks.

I do have a view of higher prices in the 4th Quarter, but for the most robust pattern would be for price to continue to move sideways until October and then continue upwards in October.

Once those 4th Quarter highs are reached, then I won't have another view until 2010.

1038 resistance until October

And those 4th Quarter highs my targets 1090+


DOW S&P Weekly

With this week's higher Weekly open and '2-day' sell pattern resulting in a break and close below the Weekly 50% level on Tuesday, my view was for a continuation down into the September 50% level.

Instead Friday has closed in the middle of the range.

Next Week:- Monday looks like pushing upwards into the 5-day highs, which could see the S&P near 1038 once again....

However I'm treating September as sideways pattern with Weekly timeframe rotations until October and the 4th Quarter.

S&P DOW Weekly 29th August 2009

S&P 500

3rd Quarter Thrust pattern into 1038 has played out and stalled.

Eventually I would look for the S&P to rotate back down into the 50% levels, but at this stage even though the S&P has hit resistance @ 1038, price looks to be pushing upwards in September.

Upside targets will be defined by the September monthly levels below...

DOW S&P Monthly

Once the S&P had hit 1038 I would have liked to see the Weekly timeframe close below 1012, as this would have set-up a rotation down into the September 50% levels.

A rotation down would be part of a retest of the July breakout and using the September 50% level as support for another leg upwards.

Because price isn't below 1012 and more than likely to close the Month above this level, I favour a move up into the September highs.

Note:- September highs on the DOW futures matches the Yearly 50% level for this market @ 9822

For US markets to move higher I would think another 5-days of sideways price action above the August highs will see a move upwards in September.

Support DOW 9366

S&P 1011

DOW S&P Weekly 22nd August 2009

S&P Weekly bar chart

S&P and DOW have continued up in the 3rd Quarter and the S&P will complete the Yearly 50% levels by next week @ 1037.50.

Potential continuation upwards in the 4th quarter to 1102, however at this stage 1037.50 is vewed as a Target and resistance level since March lows and the 3rd Quarter 'thrust' pattern.

DOW S&P Monthly

My view this week was that US markets would reverse down from the lower August highs on Monday and move down into the September 50% level, and then continue higher to complete the Yearly 50% level.

That was based on last Friday's lower Weekly close below both 9366 & 1012:- Higher Weekly 'sell' pattern

There was a sell off on Monday, however the Market turned around and continued higher.

DOW S&P Weekly

Monday Sold down breaking previous support levels, and if US markets were going to go down price should have tested the 5-day 50% level and continued down on Wednesday

However, the 5-day 50% levels were tested on Tuesday butWednesday provided a HOOK pattern:- higher Daily close.

And as per BOOK, Weekly HOOK patterns favour a higher Weekly close.