DOW S&P Weekly 27th June 2009

DOW S&P Weekly

Last Week's trading was all about the direction Monday took in relation to the Weekly 50% level.

Monday sold off from higher Daily opens that aligned with the 5-day 50% level sending both markets down, but not down far enough in my books.

I had a minimum target of 8120 on the DOW, before a potential swing back towards the Weekly 50% levels

The current reversal trend from March lows to where price is now will be completely dependant on the July 50% level.

I have a view of much higher prices based on Primary trend, but if prices are below the July 50% levels then any UP trend is up to risk.

Traders should get an idea about the trend by simply using the Weekly 50% level as a trend guide after June ends.

Based on Friday's close and a Higher Weekly open next week, I would view that price should continue to rotate down into July's 50% levels that will be confirmed after the next 3-days of trading


DOW S&P monthly

At this stage based on the current price action in the 2nd Quarter, and the position of the 3rd Quarter 50% levels, the view is to continue to move UP towards the July highs...

However, I'll get a clearer view of the market after another 5-day of trading and the end of next week.

Next Week's closing price should be able to validated the levels much better.

Until then, trade the probability patterns within the 5-day range set-ups

DOW S&P Weekly 20th June 2009

DOW S&P Weekly

The trend guide for the past 3 months has been the Weekly 50% level.

As pointed out last week, the September future contracts were running at a discount to the SPOT, which often leads to lower prices coming into expiry dates.

This resulted in US markets breaking their Weekly 50% levels on Monday and moving down into the Monthly mid-points.

The Monthly mid-points ended up supporting the markets, but continued to remain below the Weekly 50% levels.

Next week:- the Weekly 50% level drops and this be the new trend guide for the next 5-days of trading, and Monday should clearly give traders an idea about the direction.

There are 3 patterns that can play out.....

1. Weekly 50% level becomes another resistance zone sending US markets down once again.

2. Monday moves up and closes higher, resulting in a bottom to top close:- higher Friday close.

3. the next 5-days consolidates either side of the Weekly 50% level and continues to do so until the end of the month and the 3rd Quarter begins....

This will define where the next Monthly 50% level and the next trend begins in the
3rd Quarter.

Whilst price is trading above the 3rd Quarter 50% level I have a view of higher prices, especially if next week plays out either scenario of 2 or 3.

DOW S&P Weekly 13th June 2009

DOW S&P Monthly

MAY high breakout and expectation that price would continue higher into JUNE highs, but instead the past 5 days remained in a tight sideways pattern.

Last week’s view was for an early sell pattern set-up from Monday, but once the first 2 days remained above the Weekly 50% level, there was an expectation that prices would push higher.

At this stage there is a view of higher prices in 2009 in June, but with September futures running at a discount to the current SPOT contracts this often suggests lower prices.

In the short-term:- whilst price is above the Weekly 50% levels, the trend remains up.

Weekly 50% level is the same as last week (chart Below)

Below Weekly 50% level and it’s a pullback towards next months 50% level.

DOW S&P Weekly 6th June 2009

DOW S&P Monthly

US markets trading around MAY highs with the expectation of higher prices in June.

We have a MAY high break, which in theory should continue higher in the next month (June)

The support used should be viewed around the MAY levels

DOW 8550
S&P 920

If next week price is trading below those levels, then the view is that there could be a rotation down towards the monthly 50% levels.

DOW S&P Weekly

As we have seen over the past two months, the trend guide next week is simply the Weekly 50%level.

If the first two days next week closes below those levels then the UP trend could be over and a rotation downwards could be on the cards.

These Weekly 50% levels are valid trend guides and support, as they align with the MAY high breakout.

S&P 5-day pattern

Friday's reversal down from the highs was a probability pattern.

Whenever Friday's reverse down from the high, often the first two days of the new week pushes down into Support.

That support is the Weekly 50% levels.

That 2-day reversal down is simply going to begin with price trading below the 5-day 50% level on Monday, and how it trades down over the first 2 days should be an interest to all

DOW S&P Weekly 30th MAY 2009

DOW S&P Monthly

US markets closed on the last day of the month right on MAY high Resistance.

MAY high resistance has ended and now there is an expectation that price should continue up towards the June highs, as part of a larger trend rotation in 2009 towards the Yearly 50% levels

DOW 9842
S&P 1035

Even though I have a view of higher prices, I was hoping that MAY high resistance would send prices back down into the 50% levels, so that the next wave upwards would be driven up from lower Support:- more bang.

Instead we have a larger UP move clinging to the Monthly high ranges.


DOW Weekly

US markets continue to be supported by the Weekly 50% level, and the same Weekly 50% level is the trend guide for next week, along with the 5-day pattern and probability set-ups.

DOW 5-day pattern

The only pattern last week that didn't play out that I wanted, was Wednesday's failure to reach the highs, as part of a short-term reversal back down into 50% levels.

The rest of the Week had some nice higher probability patterns play out as the market rotated and continued higher into Friday.

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DOW S&P Weekly 23rd MAY 2009

DOW S&P Monthly

MAY highs resistance with the expectation that price is trying to push down into the 50% levels before it continues higher in the 3rd Quarter.

However, with 1 week left in the month of MAY, prices look like moving up towards the JUNE highs, than actually reversing all the way down.

DOW Weekly


"A lower Weekly open and trading around the Weekly 50% level might see a 2-3 day UP move before another push down later next week."... Previous Weekly Report

This week saw US markets rise up on Monday from Weekly 50% level support back into the MAY highs , and then slipping back down later in the Week.

Next Week:- If US markets are going to continue down, then price needs the break and close below those Weekly 50% levels , and then continue down towards 7936


DOW 5-day pattern

Monday started the UP move and continued to the highs, and then Tuesday and Wednesday followed a 2-day stalling pattern around each dynamic high.

Thursday was a mixed pattern, as it could have gone either way based on trading either side of the 50% level.

And Friday was part of a sell pattern using the 50% level as resistance.

The 5-day pattern range between the levels should have provided enough trading opportunities this week if traders simply used the levels as Support or resistance on each given day.

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DOW S&P Weekly 16th MAY 2009

DOW S&P Monthly

As per previous Report, the first Resistance levels were hit last Week with the MAY highs.

There is an expectation that US markets should continue down towards the 50% levels.

I do have higher prices in the 3rd Quarter, but I want to see where MAY ends up closing before committing to the view of higher prices.

DOW S&P Weekly

There is an expectation for prices to head down into the RED levels in MAY in both markets...

However, it's up to those Weekly 50% levels on whether prices head down early next week.

A lower Weekly open and trading around the Weekly 50% level might see a 2-3 day UP move before another push down later next week.

A weaker pattern in the US should have seen Friday close much lower than where it closed.