DOW S&P Report 2nd August 2008

DOW Cash Weekly chart

DOW should reach the Yearly lows in August-September.... once lows are reached it will align with a quarterly timeframe from October that could see the first major reversal back towards the 3-month highs in all global Index Markets.

S&P Cash Weekly chart


Same expectation in the S&P:- August-September lows should align with the Yearly lows.


DOW and S&P Weekly futures


June breakout down into the July lows, supporting the market, and now the expectation is that US markets are moving lower into August lows.

DOW Daily charts



Slight difference in the US markets compared to the Aussie Market.


Price needs to be trading below the mid-point in August @ 11267, to begin the next wave down towards the August lows.

DOW 5-day pattern

Basically you want to be trading on the right side of the blue channel on Monday.


  • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis

  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex

  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium

  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html


    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Weekly Report 26th July 2008

    Expectation that the DOW is heading lower towards the Yearly lows in 2008, but along the way there will be short-term counter-trend from July's lows and a move back towards the -3-week highs and then continue down....
    "
    Weekly Report 12 July 2008


    DOW Weekly

    DOW and S&P have reversed off their July's lows, and the expectation remains that price is heading lower in 2008....

    DOW Daily

    DOW moved UP from the lows hit the Weekly highs and has reversed back down into the Weekly 50% level....



    Last Week global markets reversed down from their highs, but this reversal pattern was just a rotation back down into the Weekly 50% level.

    There is a big difference between a reversal down this week and previous weeks, it's occurring above the weekly 50% levels and not below.

    Therefore next Week can continue higher:- lower Weekly open and rising higher after it's verified the 3-day cycle support on Friday.


    If the market is going to rise higher and back towards the Monthly 50% level, then it's going to align with the start of August (SET-UP A)

    If SET-UP A plays out then I'm looking for a move back down into the Yearly lows, but it might take a few weeks to unwind into a new down-trend.


    SET-UP B:- is simply the down-trend continuing from August, which normally occurs with the market opening below the August balance point and rejects down.

    S&P Weekly CASH

    Expectation that the S&P is rotating UP into 1329 and then continue down into the Yearly lows....

    S&P Weekly and Daily charts

    And that's going to depend on how well the Weekly 50% level support price next week, and then the August direction early the following week...

    We can see the reversal down into the 3-day cycle and support has been verified on Friday, which is occurring above the Weekly 50% level.

    This pattern is normally a 'bullish pattern', especially in BULL markets, but this isn't a bull market and I still have the view that markets are heading lower in 2008, but it might take another 5-days of trading to see whether set-up A or B plays out.


    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Weekly Report 19th July 2008

    DOW Weekly and Daily chart

    Expectation the US markets would reverse up from these lower levels and begin a rotation back towards the Monthly 50% levels.

    Expectation that these 50% levels are resistance zones, and more consolidation between last weeks lows and the 50% levels into August.


    S&P Daily....

    Weekly 50% level is the trend guide next week for any continuation higher into the 3-week highs.

    S&P 5-day pattern.

    The big difference between this reversal and the reversal in March is the 5-day range.

    There hasn't been a breakout of the 5-day highs, and price is following a much more subtle rotation upwards.

    Next Week:- I would use the 5-day highs as resistance, and simply trade the levels.

    The 5-day 50% level will be the trend guide for any continuation upwards, which means support should be verified by a lower daily close and then trade longs up from a lower daily open.

    In conclusion:- consolidation into August with an UP bias into the monthly 50% levels, and the potential of further weakness in the next month.


    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Weekly Report 12th July 2008

    DOW Weekly Charts

    Expectation that the DOW is heading down towards the Yearly lows in 2008, but along the way there will be short-term counter-trend move back towards the 3-weeks highs and then continue down....



    DOW Daily chart

    On Friday the DOW reached the July's lows, and as pointed out, the first sign of a reversal is going to start with a breakout of the 5-day highs, and then a move above the Weekly 50% level, as it rotates back towards July's 50% level (3-week highs.)

    And we can now see that the Weekly 50% level has now dropped below last week's highs, which isn't that far away for the market to begin it's rotation upwards.

    S&P Daily

    Same applies with the S&P, price is consolidating around the Monthly and Weekly lows, and a break of the 5-day highs will begin to attract buyers once above the Weekly 50% level.....


    S&P Weekly

    However, any rotation upwards into 1329-33, and then expectation is that price is moving back down into 1173 to finally find a low in 2008...

    Note: any lows in 2008 is only seen as lows for this year, as i'm expecting lower lows in 2009 to finally bottom out the Bear Trend.




    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Weekly Report 5th July 2008



    The previous Weekly Report gives far more detail, and explains the current price action in the markets and my overall view

    http://usindexweekly.blogspot.com/2008/06/dow-s-weekly-report-28th-june-2008.html

    DOW Daily chart...

    Expectation US markets would continue down into July's lows, and next week the Weekly lows are matching the lows in July.

    My view is that once price reaches July's lows, there is more of a chance that US markets will begin a short-term reversal pattern into July's 50% level.

    The first confirming pattern will be a breakout of the 5-day highs.....

    S&P Daily charts

    Once the breakout is confirmed, the 2nd confirming pattern is a reversal back towards the Weekly 50% levels in both markets, and then a continuation up towards the July 50% level in the following week after that.

    S&P 5-day pattern

    Once July's lows are reached, the trader needs to begin to optimise the trading on the BUY side using the 5-day patterns and the trend guide of the 5-day 50% level, along with the intra-day filters.

    Note: I'm still expecting further weakness in all global markets, and any reversal upwards is only seen as a short-term counter-trend move until the Yearly lows are reached in all markets.



    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Weekly Report 28th June 2008

    CNBC is now alerting that US markets are nearly in a 'BEAR' Market, but in fact that BEAR market began at the start of the January 2008, as prices pushed down from the Yearly 50% levels.

    As previously mentioned many times, the counter-trend UP into MAY from March lows would be the time to go cash, as the expectation that all global markets would be moving down toward the lows once again, and continue lower July-Sept as price push down towards their Yearly lows for 2008


    DOW Cash

    Those yearly lows are shown above in the DOW, which now match the next Quarterly pattern in July-September...


    S&P CASH Weekly

    As shown above, around Yearly lows is where traders want to be moving back into stocks and financials looking for the next monthly counter-trend moves upwards.

    Note:- As Mentioned previously any counter-trend move upwards from those lows is only seen as a reversal back into the monthly 50% levels, with the expectation that prices will move lower in 2009.

    S&P Daily futures...

    Pushing lower towards July's lows...

    Trend guide downwards is the Weekly 50% level, but there could be a short-term counter-trend move back towards July's 50% level before continuing down...

    S&P 5-day pattern

    For day-traders the trend guide is the 5-day 50% level.....



    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html



    • Posted by

    DOW S&P Weekly 21st June 2008

    DOW S&P Weekly charts

    US markets heading down into June's lows and expectation prices are moving lower into July's lows. once around July's lows, I'll be looking for the next monthly counter-trend move back upwards.


    "Overall US markets are trading below Monthly timeframe 50% levels, which favours further weakness down, however during the week of future contract expiry markets usually (not always) rise up into expiry next Friday.

    Once that occurs, then there is a better chance of market continuing lower.

    Ideal pattern in both markets is a continuation higher on Monday into the 5-day highs, which match the Weekly 50% level, and then push back down into support.

    So the expectation is selling pressure around the Weekly 50% level (5-day highs).

    If US markets are going to continue higher into expiry then price should then rise up off support and look for a 'HOOK' day back inside the Weekly 50% level.

    A 'HOOK' day will favour a continuation upwards into Friday....

    No HOOK day after a reversal pattern down early in the week, and price is following the Monthly trend down into the Weekly lows again....

    Previous Weekly Report

    DOW S&P Daily

    US markets push up into the Weekly 50% levels and reversed back down towards the Weekly lows, as they push down into the June lows......

    S&P 5-day pattern


    Both US markets pushed up into the 5-day highs and reversed back down into Support, but once Wednesday broke support then trend was down into Friday.

    As mentioned in the Premium Report, expectation Thursday would find some short term counter-trend, but would probably push down on Friday once again as prices remained below the 5-day filter.

    Next Week:- Push down into Monday's lows, and then we should be looking for a 2-3 day counter-trend move back up towards the Weekly 50% level...

    • Daily Trading Set-ups & Analysis
  • Index Futures SPI, DOW S&P, & Forex
  • Subscribe to the Trader Premium
  • http://www.datafeeds.com.au/premiumtrader.html

    • Posted by
    Subscribe to: Posts (Atom)