DOW S&P Weekly Report 17th MAY 2008

DOW S&P Weekly charts...

Expectation US markets are pushing higher into MAY's highs.....


DOW S&P Daily charts....

Last Week's Expectation was for US markets to swing back upwards towards their Weekly highs from lower prices, this was confirmed with the 'Hook' day back inside the Weekly 50% levels.

Next week's expectation is price is pushing upwards into the Weekly highs:- stall for a few days and then continue higher towards MAY's highs....

Last Week in the US was simply trade the 5-day patterns upwards using support.

BUY support and trade Upwards, using partial exit strategies

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DOW S&P Weekly Report 10th MAY 2008

DOW S&P Weekly charts

Expectation US markets are continuing higher in MAY, and as per last Week's report there was an expectation that US markets would come down and re-test the MAY 50% levels before heading higher.....

DOW and S&P Daily charts

I forewarned traders in the Premium service that US markets had Weekly Drops forming on Tuesday and there would be a possibility that US markets would close on their lows on Friday...

Therefore :- Expectation that a slight push down next Week and then look for Daily 'hook' bars back inside the Weekly 50% level, and then towards the Weekly channel highs.

If US markets are going to move towards the MAY highs this month, it will probably take about 2 weeks for that to play out.

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DOW S&P Weekly 3rd MAY 2008

DOW and S&P Weekly Futures

Expectation that US markets would continue higher into April highs this week, and will continue higher into MAY highs, as shown above.

Dilernia Principle:- 2 timeframe wave pattern before reversing back down into the 50% level

Therefore I favour B set-up:- where US markets continue higher into MAY before reversing down into the 50% levels, and begin to unwind into June (push lower)

A set-up:- can still occur where US markets reverse down early next week test the MAY 50% levels, and then continue higher into MAY highs and then JUNE highs......

Daily Charts

Expectation that US markets will push higher early next week, before moving into a 2-3 down move back towards the Weekly 50% level......

5-day patterns

5-day patterns of support-resistance each day, but as soon as prices move towards MAY highs things begin to change.

Any reversal down will be a precise channel break-down, after pushing higher early next week.

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DOW S&P Weekly Report 26th April 2008

DOW CASH Weekly

Both the DOW and S&P cash markets are trading around the breakout of the last Quarter lows from Sept-December 2007.

Those previous lows are acting as major resistance at this stage, but any higher push in May and the expected move is to push towards the April-June highs before reversing back down.


S&P Weekly Cash

S&P cash market is trading around the 50% level, which can form a resistance zone, a further push upwards in MAY and the S&P will be moving back towards 1452.

DOW and S&P Futures markets

Bot markets are forecasting higher prices, and I would look for those levels to be resistance zone in this Quarter before the market rotates back down into a sideways pattern...

DOW Daily futures

Both markets have close on their highs, and I would continue to treat both markets for the next week, as trading between the 5-day levels

S&P Daily futures

Both US markets look to be pushing upwards into the Weekly highs next week, and I would look for another rotation back down towards the Weekly 50% level once again.

DOW S&P Weekly Report 19th April 2008

DOW Weekly Cash...

This Week US markets finally close above their Weekly cycle highs, and are following the B set-up towards the April-June highs @ 13275......


Two weeks ago I mentioned that for Markets to go UP the expectation was that there had to be a Weekly 5-day pattern down.

Last Week was a lower weekly open rising higher into the higher Weekly close. (Friday bottom- to-top)

For US markets to continue higher, then I would firsly look for rotation back down. There has been a break of the 3-day highs last week without a 2 day pullback, therefore I would look for this to happen before markets can continue higher.

A:- reversal down early next week before continuing higher into Friday

B:- continuation upwards into the Weekly highs, then a reversal down, which would probably have another Weekly timeframe closing near its lows on Friday...

S&P cash

Close above the Weekly cycles confirms the lows are in with the expectation markets are pushing upwards into 1439...

S&P Weekly and Daily Futures

For US markets to continue higher, I would look for a rotation back down before heading higher.

Otherwise if prices continue higher early next week into the Weekly highs, then I would look for a rotation back down towards the April 50% levels once again.

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DOW 5-day patterns

DOW S&P Weekly Report 12th April 2008

"Next week that Weekly support will shift higher, therefore the support will disappear.

If the Weekly support moves, then from next week there is a greater probability that price will come back into the Weekly 50% levels, test them and then move higher.

In conclusion:- the bigger picture shows there is major resistance around the highs, and I've factored in, that for any higher move to take place I would like price to come down and re-test the Weekly 50% levels first..."

Last Week's Report...

DOW Daily Chart

US markets reversed back down into the Weekly 50% level....

I also mentioned in last Week's Report, that if US markets are going to move higher, then this down move this week had to happen before any higher move is going to occur

Two plays next Week:-

A:- moves up into the Weekly 50% level and heads down into the Weekly lows

B:- moves down early on Monday, finds support around the Weekly lows and swings back towards the Weekly 50% level....

DOW Quarterly and Yearly Cash:-

When we look at the bigger picture the market is playing out A set-up, which can continue lower into April lows.

B Set-up:- Bounces off the Weekly lows next week and swing upwards into the Weekly 50% level, but then over the next few weeks moves higher...

S&P Daily chart

The chart above pretty much sets up my view of the price action for next week:- A push lower into Weekly lows, before reversing back up into the Weekly 50% level.

After any reversal back into the Weekly 50% level, the rest of the week has a random expectation:- reverses back down breaking the Weekly lows, or continues higher into Friday.

S&P Quarterly charts

Because when I look at the bigger picuture in global markets, they still favour making lower lows in this Quarter, than going higher.

And this will be confirmed with a break of the Weekly lows, as shown in the Daily charts.

S&P 5-day intra-day charts

But as day- traders the 5-day patterns will always provide enough information for traders to take positions within the Weekly patterns and high probability patterns....

"Until then it's simply about trading on the side of those risk levels.

With US markets opening around the 5-day 50% levels they will naturally try and push away.Below support and it's pushing down towards the 5-day lows and a lower Weekly close...." 11th April Premium Report

And the entire Weekly scenario played out precisely

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DOW S&P Weekly Report 5th April 2008

DOW Cash

US markets have reversed back into the 3-week cycle highs but have failed to close above them.

These cycle highs define the overall trend of the market...

S&P Weekly CASH

S&P is the same, but technically weaker than the DOW because of price trading below the Yearly 50% levels.

And both markets are still trading below the Breakout Quarterly lows from December 2007.

Quarterly downside breakout, along with a failure to close above the Weekly cycles, this favours a rotation down next week....

DOW and S&P Weekly Futures

When we look at the Weekly charts, March has just completed and set-up the April 50% levels.

Therefore for any UP move to continue in US markets, I would like for Price to rotate back down next week into the April 50% levels before moving higher

DOW and E-mini Daily charts

The UP move started from April and the new 'time', thrusting upwards from the Weekly 50% levels.

This week was the first time that any US market was able to trade above their Weekly high channels, where Price was supported.

However next week that Weekly support will shift higher, therefore the support will disappear.

If the Weekly support moves, then from next week there is a greater probability that price will come back into the Weekly 50% levels, test them and then move higher.

In conclusion:- the bigger picture shows there is major resistance around the highs, and I've factored in, that for any higher move to take place I would like price to come down and re-test the Weekly 50% levels first...

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