S&P 500 Market Weekly Report

S&P 500 E-mini futures 25th February 2012

2012-02-24T14:24:00.003-08:00

The rest of this month is now based on 1352-54

if below my view remains intact, of the market rotating downward...

but whilst above, the market could be following the monthly cycle up towards 1396, by the end of the February, early March

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

Thursday's low matched the support levels @ 1352 and because of this, the expectation is that the trend is moving up towards 1396 and the March highs.

That expectation is valid as long as it remains above the Weekly level @ 1361.50

if below 1361.50 then the Weekly 50% level comes into play @ 1349.

Basically, the market may continue to consolidate above 1349 until the end of February ( next Wednesday)

There are two patterns to keep an eye on next week:-

Support @ 1349

and 1384 (2012 Yearly highs)

if price reaches 1384 in the first 3-days next week, but then begins trading below 1361.50 from Thursday onwards, there could be a push downward towards the Weekly lows and beyond. (breakout).....

as part of a rotation towards the March 50% level.

S&P 500 E-mini futures 18th February 2012

2012-02-17T14:47:00.000-08:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

My view last week was that 1352-54 would act as resistance and continue down towards the Weekly lows over the coming weeks.

Everything looked like it was going to play out accordingly when Wednesday closed below the Weekly level @ 1342.50

However, positive US Jobs & housing reports on Thursday sent the S&P back towards the Weekly highs.

The rest of this month is now based on 1352-54

if below my view remains intact, of the market rotating downward...

but whilst above, the market could be following the monthly cycle up towards 1396, by the end of the February, early March.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 11th February 2012

2012-02-10T13:40:00.000-08:00

Once it reaches the February highs it will complete the Monthly cycle wave patterns, therefore I would begin to look for pullbacks longer in length to around the Trailing Weekly lows.

Any reversal patterns will only be confirmed by price moving back inside the Weekly levels, and that might not happen until the 3rd Week in February.

S&P Weekly cycles

2-month wave pattern complete at the February highs (resistance) 1352

My view is that it will try and unwind down towards the Weekly lows over the next few weeks.

if I'm right it should remain within the weekly levels (Below 1342.50).....

otherwise it can continue to push up towards the Weekly highs 1358.

S&P 500 E-mini 4th February 2012 Weekly Report

2012-02-03T15:06:00.000-08:00

Monthly & Weekly cycles

2-month wave pattern into the February highs will complete next week after finding support at this week's 50% level @ 1298

The current price action started from the December 50% level in the 4th Quarter of 2011, and has now reached the first quarter highs:- break and extend patterns.

Once it reaches the February highs it will complete the Monthly cycle wave patterns, therefore I would begin to look for pullbacks longer in length to around the Trailing Weekly lows.

Any reversal patterns will only be confirmed by price moving back inside the Weekly levels, and that might not happen until the 3rd Week in February.

S&P 500 E-mini futures 28th January 2012 Weekly Report

2012-01-27T14:47:00.000-08:00

The S&P is about to hit the January highs @ 1314, as part of the extension pattern from the December 50% level :- This Monthly high is seen as resistance level.

However, there is also the single monthly breakout @ 1278 (RED), which could result in the price action extending up towards the new February highs, as part of a 2-month wave pattern during the 1st quarter.

S&P Weekly cycles

S&P is currently trading around the January highs @ 1314.

These resistance levels will disappear in two days time, and extend up towards the February highs. (potential 2-month wave pattern during the first quarter.

In the short-term, the focus should be trading the current break out pattern from 1278.

The completion of the Break and Extend pattern is around 1235.

Trend guide on whether price moves up or down in the first 2-3 days will be determined by the Weekly level @ 1314

S&P 500 E-mini 21st January 2012 Weekly Report

2012-01-20T15:13:00.000-08:00

S&P Weekly and Daily cycles

The S&P is about to hit the January highs @ 1314, as part of the extension pattern from the December 50% level

These Monthly highs are seen as resistance levels that could result in the last week of this month (next week) begin a reversal pattern back down towards the Weekly 50% level & 1278 (5-day reversal pattern).

However, there is also the single monthly breakout @ 1278 (RED), which could result in the price action extending upwards towards the new February highs, as part of a 2-month wave pattern during the 1st quarter.

These 2-month wave patterns are described in the Book. That means the S&P moving as high as 1340.

Next Week:- The Short-term trend will be defined by next Week’s levels, whilst using sets-ups in the 5-day daily cycle range.

S&P 500 E-mini 14th January 2012 Weekly report

2012-01-13T14:13:00.000-08:00

Primary range remains Bullish, as per previous Weekly Report.

We have a December 50% level support pattern, which often suggests an extension upwards in the current month:- Target January highs @ 1314.

If the market follows the Weekly cycles upwards, then it might take a number of weeks to reach its target, as long as it remains above 1270...Previous Weekly report

S&P Weekly cycles

The previous 5-days has continued to follow the dynamic Weekly cycles remaining above 1270, as part of a move towards the January highs.

The upward trend is based on the higher timeframe December 50% level support pattern and extension towards the January highs @ 1314, whilst the Weekly highs act as random resistance zones. (8.5 to 14 points)

Same pattern for next week:- trend bias is to continue higher...

as long as it's above 1278-82.

Trailing support level is the Weekly 50% level @ 1269

Anything below the Weekly lows @ 1249, puts the current upward trend at RISK.

S&P 500 E-mini futures 7th January 2012

2012-01-06T16:13:00.000-08:00

S&P Weekly Cycles

Primary range remains Bullish, as per previous Weekly Report.

We have a December 50% level support pattern, which often suggests an extension upwards in the current month.

Target January highs @ 1314.

If the market follows the Weekly cycles upwards, then it might take a number of weeks to reach its target.

As long as it remains above 1270

S&P 500 31st December 2011 Weekly report

2011-12-30T14:17:00.000-08:00

Primary and Weekly cycles

New Primary cycle begins next week, and the S&P 500 will start the year above the year 50% level @ 1235.75.

That's a good sign to begin with.

As long as the S&P 500 doesn't break the Weekly lows and monthly 50% levels (1203) early in the new year the trend remains stable with an UPWARD bias.

4th Quarter 50% level @ 1274.50 that has formed resistance over the past 3-months has disappeared, and has dynamically moved to a support zone for the 1st quarter.

In conclusion:- Weekly 50% level and primary cycles 50% levels and seen as robust support zones at the start of next week. (1235.75)

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 24th December 2011

2011-12-23T15:44:00.000-08:00

S&P Primary and Weekly cycles

December 50% level Support, and once above the Weekly 50% level @ 1231.50 the trend bias was to close higher.

Short-term the trend is likely to move towards 1274.50 once again.

However, any weakness next week, and the important pattern to keep an eye on it the new Primary 50% level for 2012.

Next Week:- Weekly level @ 1264 is the trend guide on whether the market closes higher.

or closes near the Weekly 50% level, which aligns with the 2012 Yearly 50% level from the 1st of January.

S&P 500 E-mini futures 17th December 2011 Weekly report

2011-12-16T21:00:00.000-08:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

S&P remains stable, as the December 50% level continues to support the trend,

and may continue to do so until the end of this Year.

Weekly levels are the Trend guides for next week

However, coming into the end of the Year and then next Primary cycles appears....(Chart below)

S&P 500 Primary cycle

The 2012 Yearly 50% level and 1st quarter 50% level is the

trend guide on whether the trend continues down into the 2012 Yearly lows

S&P 500 E-mini 10th December 2011 Weekly report

2011-12-09T14:28:00.000-08:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

1274.50 could continue to act as resistance until the end of this year.

Weekly 50% level remains the trend guide and random support.

If that's the case, then markets will continue to consolidate and rotate within the 5-day range using intra-day filtering techniques of 8.5 to 14 point ranges.

The next major trend won't develop until the start of 2012, when the new 2012 Yearly 50% level comes into play.. (Chart Below)

S&P Primary Cycle

S&P 500 E-mini 3rd December 2011 Weekly report

2011-12-02T15:36:00.000-08:00

A breakout of the Weekly lows will normally extend towards next week's lows @ 1128 (random support)

1189-1196 resistance (Previous Weekly Report)

S&P Weekly and Daily

The S&P didn't remain below resistance levels, as positive news came out on funding for European Banks.

This saw the S&P 500 rally into the Weekly highs, and we are back to my original view of markets remaining consolidating within the 4th Quarter.

Next Week:- could continue towards next week's highs, and back towards 1274.50 (Resistance)...

But because of Friday's 5-day high reversal pattern my view is that....

that the market is heading back towards the Weekly 50% level...

and as far as the December 50% level sometime this month (Random Support)

Trend guide 1249.50

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 26th November 2011 Weekly Report

2011-11-25T14:22:00.000-08:00

The first key level will be next week's level @ 1209.25 and whether the first 2-3 days has an upward bias towards the Weekly 50% level (random resistance)

Of course that can quickly change if the market is trading below key Support levels, because a rejection down from the Quarterly 50% levels (1274.50) can often extend towards lower lows in the following Quarter (January 2012)

Previous Weekly Report

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

My view was that the Markets would remain consolidating until December...

but that quickly changed with this week opening below 1209, and continued with a breakout of the Weekly lows @ 1196.

A breakout of the Weekly lows will normally extend towards next week's lows @ 1128 (random support)

And possibly extend towards the December lows, as part of the push from the 4th quarterly 50% level @ 1274.50

1189-1196 resistance

S&P 500 e-mini 19th November 2011 Weekly Report

2011-11-18T13:52:00.000-08:00

1274.50 can continue to act as resistance.

My overall view remains; a sideways consolidating pattern for the rest of the 4th quarter, along with swift short-term down moves of 2-3 days Previous Weekly Report

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

My view is that the S&P will remain consolidating during the current Quarter, or at least the next 2-weeks

That means remaining above the November 50% level and Weekly lows.

The first key level will be next week's level @ 1209.25 and whether the first 2-3 days has an upward bias towards the Weekly 50% level (random resistance)

Of course that can quickly change if the market is trading below key Support levels as shown in the Monthly chart....

because a rejection down from the Quarterly 50% levels (1274.50) can often extend towards lower lows in the following Quarter ( January 2012)

S&P 500 E-mini futures 12th November 2011 Weekly Report

2011-11-11T14:40:00.000-08:00

My view is that the S&P will remain supported, & continue to consolidate with an upward bias:- Weekly 50% level @ 1236 is the trend

but the position of the 4th Quarterly 50% level @ 1274 could continue to act as resistance over the next 5-days.
Previous Weekly Report

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

As per the previous Weekly report...

Trend bias is up, but 1274.50 acted as resistance

Next Week:-

more of the same, 1274.50 can act as resistance, as the market tries to move higher.

Weekly 50% level is the trend guide, along with short-term set-ups within the 5-day range, as per Daily reports.

Keep an eye for any weakness below the Weekly lows @ 1212

My overall view remains; a sideways consolidating pattern for the rest of the 4th quarter, as it tries to continue higher, along with swift short-term down moves of 2-3 days

S&P 500 E-mini Fuutres 5th November 2011 Weekly Report

2011-11-04T14:58:00.000-07:00

For those looking at the larger timeframe patterns, the trend bias will be based on the 4th quarterly 50% level @ 1274, as it will dictate whether the trend remains bullish, or rotates back down into the November 50% levels.

Previous Weekly Report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Last Week I was looking for the S&P to move up into the Weekly highs @ 1308, but then reverse back down.

However, Monday opened below the 4th Quarterly 50% level @ 1274, and proceeded to move down into the Weekly 50% levels & November 50% level.

Next Week:- Whilst the S&P remains above the November 50% level, the trend bias is up towards the November highs, but the position of the 4th Quarterly 50% level @ 1274 could continue to act as resistance over the next 5-days.

At this point , my view is that the S&P will remain supported, & continue to consolidate with an upward bias.

Weekly 50% level @ 1236 is the trend guide

Trend remains stable unless it's trading below the Weekly lows @ 1190

S&P 500 E-mini 29th October 2011 Weekly Report

2011-10-28T15:58:00.000-07:00

Consolidation above the October 50% level will help set-up further gains later in the week, as the trend follows the weekly cycles

And the current price action suggests the trend will continue towards 1274 by November

Previous Weekly Report

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

Break and extend pattern in the Weekly cycles should continue up into next week's highs, and then reverse back down into the this week's high, as part of retesting the breakout....

and as low as 1250.75

Once that occurs I'd be looking for further gains towards the November highs, using 1250.75 as support.

For those looking at the larger timeframe patterns, the trend bias will be based on the 4th quarterly 50% level @ 1274, as it will dictate whether the trend remains bullish, or rotates back down into the November 50% levels.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 22nd October 2011 Weekly Report

2011-10-21T15:02:00.000-07:00

likely to follow the Weekly cycles towards new highs

And whilst the trend is above 1184/1191, it's following a move towards 1274.50 by November

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles…

Consolidation above the October 50% level earlier in the weekly help set-up further gains later in the week, as the trend follows the weekly cycles

And the current price action suggests the trend will continue towards 1274 by November

Once again the levels in the 5-day cycle should hopefully provide a number of ideal/high probability trading set-ups.

S&P 500 E-mini futures 15th October 2011 Weekly report

2011-10-14T15:43:00.000-07:00

Weekly 50% level along with the patterns in the 5-day range (daily report) will decide on whether the trend continues up towards the monthly 50% level and upper weekly levels.

At this stage I can't see any bullish signs that's going to push the S&P towards 1274 during the 4th quarter. (Previous Weekly report)

S&P monthly and Weekly cycles.

We’ll now I can see the bullish signs that’s going to push the S&P towards 1274 during the 4^th Quarter…

That began with the consolidation above the October 50% earlier in the week, and if you follow the Daily reports, the most robust set-ups aligned with Thursday’s support and Friday’s BUY set-up

http://thetradertrading.blogspot.com/2011/10/s-500-e-mini-futures-14th-october-2011.html

Next Week:- likely to follow the Weekly cycles towards new highs (double Weekly highs & Random resistance @ 1246.50)

Note:- Whilst the trend is above 1284/1291, it's following a move towards 1274.50 by November

Once again the daily cycles will provided set-ups within the 5-day range, as price moves within the lines of least resistance.

S&P 500 E-mini futures 8th October 2011 Weekly report

2011-10-07T15:04:00.000-07:00

the Weekly levels @ 1090 could provide another swing point...

but sometime during the next 4 weeks my view is that price will move down towards 1045.

Previous Weekly Report

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

The S&P formed a double low pattern in the 3rd quarter using 1090 as the swing/support level in the Weekly cycles (Note:- Tuesday's 5-day lows @ 1068 were the precise low)

However, when we compare the price action in the S&P 500 to the price action in the Australian market, we can see the lack of strength in the market on Friday.

The Weekly close doesn't show the same bullish pattern, as it has failed to close above any key resistance levels

Next Week:- Weekly 50% level along with the patterns in the 5-day range (daily report) will decide on whether the trend continues up towards the monthly 50% level and upper weekly levels, or not

At this stage I can't see any bullish signs that's going to push the S&P towards 1274 during the 4th quarter.

S&P 500 E-mini futures 1st October 2011 Weekly report

2011-09-30T16:15:00.000-07:00

My view is that the trend will continue down towards the September lows, with a possible dip down as low as 1045 in October.

Once that occurs my view is that the downward trend will stabilise for the rest of 2011, and move into a 4th Quarter consolidation pattern. (previous Weekly Report)

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

S&P didn't continue down into the September lows, but instead the Weekly level and pattern in the 5-day range @ 1117 provided a short-term (2-day rise) swing point.

However, later in the Weekly the trend resumed its course, which is towards the October lows that now matches my target in the Primary cycle @ 1045

Next Week:- the Weekly levels @ 1090 could provide another swing point...

but sometime during the next 4 weeks my view is that price will move down towards 1045.

S&P 500 E-mini futures 24th September

2011-09-23T16:26:00.000-07:00

Traders should keep an eye on the Weekly level @ 1218.

if below at the start of next week, then look for a 2-day reversal pattern. If price breaks out of the 5-day lows on Tuesday, then the trend will continue lower for the rest of the week...

Previous Weekly Report

S&P Weekly cycles

Breakout of the 5-day lows occurred on Wednesday @ 1178, matched with the Weekly 50% level, and the rest of the week has continued lower.

My view is that the trend will continue down towards the September lows, with a possible dip down as low as 1045-56 in October.

Once that occurs my view is that the downward trend will stabilise for the rest of 2011, and move into a 4th Quarter consolidation pattern.

This will set-up new levels for 2012 for a possible move towards new lows in 2012.

S&P 500 E-mini 17th September 2011 Weekly report

2011-09-16T14:14:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

I was looking for more weakness this week, as part of a move towards the September lows, but instead the market remained within the weekly channels, with Friday closing on its 5-day high.

Friday's close has the potential to see more gains next week, but unless the market breaks out of the weekly highs @ 1241, the current trend can quickly reverse back down.

Traders should keep an eye on the Weekly level @ 1218.

if below at the start of next week, then look for a 2-day reversal pattern.

if price breaks out of the 5-day lows on Tuesday, then the trend will continue lower for the rest of the week

if price bounces off the 5-day lows on Tuesday and closes higher, then next week could see more gains

S&P 500 E-mini futures 10th September 2011 Weekly Report

2011-09-09T15:50:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly & Weekly cycles

HOOK pattern earlier in the Week saw the S&P rise back towards upper resistance levels...

As per previous Reports.....

Expectation is that the trend is continuing down into the September lows

Next Week:- Weekly levels are the trend guides, along with patterns & trading set-ups in the 5-day range

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 3rd September 2011 Weekly report

2011-09-02T16:44:00.000-07:00

my hunch is that price continues to move up towards the Weekly highs, which are seen as resistance.

Once the next 5-days are over, then the week after next will let us know whether the trend follows the September low pattern using the Monthly 50% level as the trend guide.

If that happens then my bet is that Obama will announce QE3 somewhere around those September lows, which will underpin the trend for the rest of 2011 (Previous Weekly report)

S&P monthly and Weekly cycles.

Current price action has played out accordingly, with August lows supporting the trend, the market moving up into the Weekly highs, and then selling down from the Weekly highs.

Further weakness was confirmed with Thursday’s close below the key weekly trend levels, and Friday followed, as part of a September 50% level rejection pattern towards new lows

My view is that over the next 10-days the market moves down towards the September lows.

I previously said that the down trend is towards 1045 & the Yearly lows, but it might not get that low...as the target is now 1078-1085 based on the Weekly cycles.

I'd keep an eye on any 'lame' Obama announcements around those lows (or 1045), as this will underpin the market for the rest of 2011.

Note:- in the short-term it won't surprise me to see the S&P move upwards as part of a 2day 'stall-reversal pattern', using the Weekly 50% level as the trend guide...

But i'd be surprised to see the market trading above 1217 over the next 5-days.

Trend bias is DOWN, helped by the Weekly levels.

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 27th August 2011 Weekly report

2011-08-26T16:13:00.000-07:00

Next Week:- price remains above 1115 and likely to swing upwards, but then make a move towards the September lows in the following Month.

(Last Week's Report)

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

August lows @ 1115 continues to support the trend, resulting in the market rotating back towards the Weekly 50% level @ 1177, which formed resistance.

Next Week:- the S&P could move back down into the Weekly 50% level @ 1148, but my hunch is that price continues to move up towards the Weekly highs, which are seen as resistance.

Once the next 5-days are over, then the week after next will let us know whether the trend follows the September low pattern using the Monthly 50% level as the trend guide.

If that happens then my bet is that Obama will announce QE3 somewhere around those September lows and 1045, which will underpin the trend for the rest of 2011

S&P 500 E-mini Futures 20th August 2011 Weekly report

2011-08-19T16:26:00.000-07:00

Next week normally begins with a 3 day UP move, as part of retesting the previous Weekly breakout. If that occurs, then traders should begin to look for shorts once again from Thursday onwards.

And if everything goes to plan, the market slowly unwinds and begins another downward leg into September lows.

Previous Weekly Report

S&P Primary and Weekly cycles

3-day UP-Move failed to move as high as 1245 (August 50% level), as the 3rd quarterly level @ 1208.50 stalled the market from rising further.

As noted in last week's report, and also described in my book, after the 3rd day up move in the 3rd Week, the next short sell pattern happens on Thursday.

Often that begins after the cash market closes on Wednesday, and aligned with resistance levels. This time it was validated by the same sell-set-up but with price trading below the 5-day 50% level @ 1178

Next week:-

if price remains above 1115 then it's likely to swing upwards, but then make a move towards the September lows in the following Month.

Otherwise the overall trend bias is to continue down into the 2011 Yearly lows @ 1045, and as low as 1015

S&P Futures E-mini 13th August 2011 Weekly

2011-08-12T17:06:00.000-07:00

the trend can often drop down from those levels and continue down into the August lows later this Month @ 1115

Those August lows, will once again be another long term swing point (BUY), that should see the market stabilise and move upwards into a large consolidation pattern for the rest of 2011.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Primary and Monthly cycles

Last Week’s price action was exaggerated on the news of the credit downgrade in the US, but we completed the move into the August lows @ 1115 quicker than expected

Because of the downgrade and the subsequent move into the August lows, the price action has been in fast forward, and this gives a couple of conflicting patterns.

If it followed my original analysis and moved down into the August lows in the last week of the month and dipped slightly lower in September, then the upward reversal pattern would normally last for the next 2-3 months, as it follows the monthly cycles:- October and then into November's highs.

Weekly report continues below....

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

However, let me stick to the original analysis, and the expectation of a 3rd week rally.

The 3rd week is next week, and begins with price trading above the Primary support levels @ 1169/73, combined with price trading inside the Weekly range @ 1169.

A 3rd Week rally normally begins with a 3 day move, as part of retesting the previous Weekly breakout.

That previous breakout is 1271, but it might fail at the August 50% level @ 1245.

If that occurs, then traders should begin to look for shorts once again from Thursday onwards.

And if everything goes to plan, the market slowly unwinds and begins another downward leg into September lows.

Note;- the conflicting pattern won't be known until September begins, because the next monthly 50% level will decide whether the trend makes a move towards the September lows..

or actually forms support, and the market follows the 2-3 month upward move.

In the short-term:- if the market rallies upwards for the next 3-days and closes on its highs by Wednesday, then from Thursday onwards becomes interesting.

Trend guide 1169/1173

S&P 500 Emini futures 6th August 2011 Weekly

2011-08-05T15:45:00.000-07:00

S&P Primary and Weekly cycles

August 50% level rejection pattern @ 1311, has led to as 'thrust' pattern downward:- top-to-bottom 5-day cycle.

This then resulted in a breakout of the Weekly lows @ 1272, and also below the 3rd quarterly 50% level @ 1266

Once that occured, then the Primary cycle takes over, sending the S&P 500 down into the primary support levels @ 1169/1273

1169/73 is a major support, and the 3rd Quarterly 50% level @ 1266 is a major resistance zone over the next 2-months.

Even though the trend has found support, my view is that it will double dip into August lows.

In my new book there is a section that clearly describes the current market conditions from pages 120 to 130, which spells out the possible price action over the next 2-3weeks, as described below..

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

If the current price action follows those text-book patterns, then the trend should move up into the Weekly level and then continue down into this week's lows @ 1144.

That pattern will complete the break and extend pattern from last week's lows @ 1272

If that plays out, then the following week should begin with a 3-5 day rally, that could go as high as the Quartertly 50% level @ 1266

Once that plays out, then the trend can often drop down from those levels and continue down into the August lows later this Month @ 1115

Those August lows, will once again be another long term swing point (BUY), that should see the market stabilise and move upwards into a large consolidation pattern for the rest of 2011.

Therefore over the next 3-weeks there should be a lot of volatility, and if it plays out as described then there's good money to be made

Of course it might not do any of that., but lets see how it goes.

Footnote:- This week's report was written before Standard and Poor downgraded the US credit rating from AAA to AA+, how it changes the analysis over the next 5-days is yet to be seen

S&P (E-mini) 30th July 2011 Weekly

2011-07-29T17:02:00.000-07:00

there is a stench hanging over the S&P if the US fails to raise it’s debt ceiling coming into August.... and if for some reason that happens then it could easily break the support levels (Weekly lows)...

(Previous Weekly report)

S&P Weekly cycles

Nothing has been resolved on the debt ceiling, and weakness in the S&P 500 was set-up on Wednesday with a break of the 5-day channel @ 1327, resulting in a break out of the 5-day lows, and further weakness with the market closing below the Weekly lows.

And if nothing is resolved regarding the debt ceiling over the weekend, then the trend should continue to move down into the Weekly lows, and the 3rd quarter 50% level 1266. (random support)

Next Week:- if trading the S&P 500 on a daily basis, then the levels in the Weekly and Monthly ranges should be used, along with the patterns in the 5-day range, whilst focusing on taking 8.5 to 14-point range movements.

S&P (E-mini) 23rd July 2011 Weekly report

2011-07-22T17:25:00.000-07:00

Trend guide is simply based on the Weekly 50% level @ 1318...whilst trading set-ups within the 5-day range....Next week:- likely to remain range bound between the Weekly levels. (previous Weekly report)

S&P Weekly cycles

S&P remained within the Weekly levels, with Wednesday’s price action helping to set-up a move towards the upper weekly level @ 1346.

Next Week;- there is a stench hanging over the S&P if the US fails to raise it’s debt coming in August.

If for some reason that happens then it could easily break the support levels (Weekly lows)

However, if I concentrate of the current price action alone, then my view is that next week will rise upwards, and continue to move towards the highs in July @ 1374.

Whilst looking for set-ups within the patterns in the 5-day range to help validate that view.

S&P (e-mini ) 16th July 2011 WEEKLY

2011-07-15T18:43:00.000-07:00

A weak pattern won’t eventuate unless the market breaks out of the 5-day lows and begins trading below 1325... be aware of patterns within the 5-day range, that may show set-ups with potential weakness using the intra-day daily channels.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

The 5-day low breakout occurred on Monday, and the S&P remained below 1325 for the rest of the week.

However, the trend didn't continue down towards 1266, but it instead remained supported around its Weekly 50% level.

Therefore next week's trend guide is simply based on the Weekly 50% level @ 1318...whilst trading set-ups within the 5-day range.

Next week:- likely to remain range bound between the Weekly levels.

And what's going to push the S&P in either direction will be determined by the decision around raising the debt ceiling in August

If they raise it, it should help lift the market, and if they don't it could push the S&P down towards 1266

S&P (e-mini ) 9th July 2011 WEEKLY

2011-07-08T16:15:00.000-07:00

S&P will travel to next week’s highs @ 1350 as part of the break and extend pattern from 1295

my view is that 1348-52 will act as resistance for the next 3-5 days....

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly cycles

S&P completed the break and extend pattern from 1295 into 1350, which formed resistance on Friday.

The Trend in the S&P remains stable, as long as it remains above 1325 and the 3rd quarterly level.

And based on the current price action, the market looks like it will continue towards next week’s highs, and then as high as the July level @ 1374

A weak pattern won’t eventuate unless the market breaks out of the 5-day lows and begins trading below 1325, and there isn’t a set-up in the current cycles that’s going to pre-empt that break.

Therefore the trend bias is to continue upward, but be aware of patterns within the 5-day range, that may show set-ups with potential weakness using the intra-day daily channels.

S&P (e-mini ) 2nd July 2011 WEEKLY

2011-07-01T16:07:00.000-07:00

there is enough reason why the S&P could rise upwards in the last week of the 2nd Quarter.

and if the S&P rises upwards, then the 3rd Quarterly high around 1325 will probably form resistance and push the market lower once again.(Previous Weekly report)

S&P monthly and Weekly cycles.

The confirming pattern to validate the reversal pattern started with a breakout of the Weekly highs @ 1295 on Wednesday

There were two patterns that were going to play out :-

#1 how price responds to the Monthly 50% levels? and as we can see the market opened above the July 50% level @ 1313

#2 how far price travels as part of the Weekly break and extend pattern?

The answer is that the S&P will travel to next week’s highs @ 1350 as part of the break and extend pattern from 1295

Fundamentally, some would say W.T.F. just happened, but technically the price action is not unusual, even though the speed of the move even caught me out, with the lack of minor intra-day pullbacks within the daily range (5-day pattern trading & 8.5 points)

Next Week: - my view is that 1348-52 will act as resistance for the next 3-5 days....

And then the 3rd quarterly level @ 1325 comes into play...

1325 will define whether the trend continues higher, and follows the monthly cycles towards new highs

or

whether the trend again moves into another 3-month cycle that consolidates ‘sideways’ until the start of the next Quarter using the levels shown above.

S&P (e-mini ) 25th JUNE 2011 WEEKLY

2011-06-24T17:57:00.000-07:00

if the S&P 500 rises upwards from the June lows @ 1259, then the 3rd quarterly 50% level will come into play.

However, traders should always be aware that 3rd Monthly 50% level rejection patterns can often extend downward towards the following monthly lows in the next Quarter.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Weekly cycles

As noted in the Previous Weekly report, the June lows @ 1259 will try and support the market, whilst the June 50% level rejection pattern will try and push the trend lower towards the July lows.

Therefore, next week could remain within the Weekly levels once again, and swing as high as the Weekly highs....

or it's going to break support and continue to trend lower, as shown in the next chart.

S&P Monthly and Secondary cycles

S&P is currently being supported at the 2nd Quarterly levels, which will shift at the start of July.

Therefore, there is enough reason why the S&P could rise upwards in the last week of the 2nd Quarter.

However, with QE2 ending and no sign of QE3 starting, the S&P could also follow the 3rd monthly rejection pattern towards the July lows.

In conclusion:- if the S&P rises upwards, then the 3rd Quarterly high around 1325 will probably form resistance and push the market lower once again.

If it's trading below current support and the 3rd quarterly 50% level, it's likely to continue down towards 1208.50.

The 3rd Quarter looks to be more sideways range trading with a downward bias.

S&P (e-mini ) 18th JUNE 2011 WEEKLY

2011-06-17T17:46:00.000-07:00

next week's lows @ 1254 match the June lows @ 1259, and this will be seen as a support level

If looking for lows in the market for short-term counter-trend moves, then next week's levels come into play, along with using the 5-day range to help validate entry levels...

Random resistance @ 1285.25

Previous Weekly report

S&P Weekly Cycles

S&P moved down into the Support levels @ 1254-59, and then remained range bound within the Weekly levels, with 1285.25 acting as resistance.

As noted in last week's report, if the S&P is going to find support, it will begin to gradually rise over the next couple of weeks, helped by price remaining above 1268.50

However, traders should always be aware that 3rd Monthly 50% level rejection patterns can often extend downward into following monthly lows in the next Quarter.

S&P Primary cycles

In 2010 the Market reversed down from the Primary highs and moved down into the trailing Quarterly 50% levels.

The price action in 2011 is following a similar pattern, but without the 'flash crash' that occurred last year.

And if the market follows a similar pattern, and the trend continues to extend downward, then lower Quarterly 50% levels come into play once again @ 1173-1188

Note:- if the S&P 500 rises upwards from this week's lows @ 1254-59, then the 3rd quarterly 50% level will come into play (Yellow)....

And will define whether the trend continues upwards (QE3)....

or moves down into 1173

S&P (e-mini ) 11th JUNE 2011 WEEKLY

2011-06-10T16:11:00.000-07:00

"next week’s trading is simply based on trading either side of 1301.50

If below it’s down towards the June lows @ 1259. (random support Weekly lows @ 1286)"

S&P 500 WEEKLY CYCLES

The S&P has continued down towards the June lows @ 1259, whilst finding some support earlier this week around the Weekly lows @ 1286.

As we can see, next week's lows @ 1254 match the June lows @ 1259, and this will be seen as a support level, but won't be the low in the current downward trend.

That low is likely to extend towards the July lows, that haven't been confirmed as yet.

Depending on how the next few weeks trades, that low could be as low as 1188 (Quarterly 50% level), or 1173 (Yearly 50% level)....

However, if the June lows @ 1254-59 provides support for the next 3-weeks, then the July lows will be higher.

If looking for lows in the market to re-enter longs on 'stock positions' I would wait until July.

If looking for lows in the market for short-term counter-trend moves, then next week's levels come into play, along with using the 5-day range to help validate entry levels...

Random resistance @ 1285.25

S&P (e-mini ) 4th June 2011 Weekly

2011-06-03T16:48:00.000-07:00

If the S&P is going to continue upwards, then it's going to rise from the Weekly 50% level and move towards the Weekly level @ 1348. If that happens then we look for short-term weakness that is going to retest the June 50% level @ 1322 from Wednesday

The June 50% level will be the trend guide for the rest of the Quarter.

The S&P continues to trade above 1301, and unless there is a close below 1301, then the upward trend remains stable.

Previous Weekly report

S&P 500 Weekly

The S&P rose upwards from the Weekly 50% level until the Weekly highs, and as noted in the previous Weekly report, a reversal pattern occurred from Wednesday to move back down to test the June 50% level.

However, Wednesday continued lower closing below the June 50% level @ 1322.50, which put pressure on the market for the rest of the week. And as we can see, this has resulted in a Weekly close below 1301

The Weekly close below 1301 helps validated potential further weakness during the current Quarter, which can lead to a trend bias towards the June lows @ 1259

Therefore, next week’s trading is simply based on trading either side of 1301.50

If below it’s down towards the June lows @ 1259. (random support Weekly lows @ 1286)

If above 1301.50 then it’s looks like a 2-day counter-trend move to retest the June 50% level @ 1322.50, which is seen as resistance.

S&P (e-mini ) 28th MAY 2011 Weekly

2011-05-27T17:37:00.000-07:00

We saw a similar patterns in March & April, and on both occasions Friday had closed above the Weekly 50% level, and the trend continued upwards...

However, this week failed to close above the Weekly 50% level, to help validate the same pattern.

Based on the current price action, the S&P could be following a double Weekly low pattern into next week's lows @ 1311, as the market consolidates into the start of June.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Weekly

The S&P moved down into a double Weekly low @ 1311, providing another FAKE break pattern.

If the S&P is going to continue upwards, then it's going to rise from the Weekly 50% level and move towards the Weekly level @ 1348. If that happens then we look for any short-term weakness that is going to retest the June 50% level (support)

Note:- Friday's failure to move above the daily highs on Friday could actually see the first 2-days move down into the lower Weekly level @ 1313, which aligns with the start of the month of June....

As we can see the June 50% level is actually a lower level than the MAY 50%, which will then be the trend guide for the rest of the Quarter.

The S&P continues to trade above the 2011 highs @ 1301, and unless there is a monthly close below 1301, then the upward trend remains stable.

Next Week:- simply trade on the side of 1331 until Wednesday, and then the June 50% level.

S&P (e-mini ) 21st April 2011 Weekly

2011-05-20T16:39:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

S&P continues to consolidate above support levels @ 1324.50, after finding support around it's Weekly lows earlier in the Week.

We saw a similar patterns in March & April, and on both occasions Friday had closed above the Weekly 50% level, and the trend continued upwards...

However, this week failed to close above the Weekly 50% level, to help validate the same pattern.

Based on the current price action, the S&P could be following a double Weekly low pattern into next week's lows @ 1311, as the market consolidates into the start of June.

S&P (e-mini ) 14th MAY 2011 Weekly

2011-05-13T16:56:00.000-07:00

Remains consolidating above 1324.50 for the next few weeks until the start of June, and then makes a play for the monthly highs

or breaks support and continues lower

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

The S&P continues to consolidate above support levels during the month of MAY, and once again we see a familiar pattern appear.

A lot of trends often continue higher when the Weekly lows catch up with the trend, and as we can see, those weekly lows have once again moved upwards to align with support levels in the S&P500 (1324.50)

We saw this in March (fake break)and the trend continue higher in April, and whilst the S&P remains above 1324.50 there is an upward bias towards the MAY highs:- 1383 to 1397

However, we must acknowledge that a daily close below 1320 will put pressure on the S&P to move down into 1300

And anything below 1300, is seen as extremely weak, as it will be once again trading below the Yearly highs

S&P (e-mini) 7th MAY 2011 Weekly

2011-05-06T17:41:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

As per last Week's report, the initial view was that there would be a 2-day reversal pattern back down into 1347, which will then be the guide on whether the trend continues down into the MAY 50% level or not.

I also pointed out in last week's report...

At this stage QE2 remains until the end of June, therefore it's likely to underpin the current trend...

therefore, unless it is trading below the Weekly and monthly 50% level @ 1324.50, the trend bias remains stable.

In 2010 we saw a 'flash crash' pattern in the first week or MAY, and in 2011 we have weakness once again in the first week of MAY, however, this time it continues to remain above support levels, helped by the market being above the Yearly highs in 2011 (1301-1331)

There are two possible patterns that can play out for the rest of the month....

#1) Remains consolidating above 1324.50 for the next few weeks until the start of June, and then makes a play for the monthly highs

#2) the trend continues down using the Weekly 50% level as the trend guide, and follows the Weekly range towards lower lows:- 1310.75 and then 1291.25

S&P (e-mini ) 30th April 2011 Weekly

2011-04-29T17:28:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Once price began trading above 1337, the trend bias was to continue up into the April highs, and is now likely to continue up towards next week's highs, & also the highs in MAY...

There are two possible pattern early next week....

#1) next week starts with a 2-day reversal pattern (remains below 1365), and retests last week's breakout @ 1343-36, and then continues upwards from Wednesday towards this week's highs

#2) the trend continues up towards the Weekly highs by Monday, which is then seen as resistance...

if Monday hits 1375.50 and stalls, then I'll once again look for a reversal pattern back down into 1343-1346.

Trend guide & Random support 1343-1346

At this stage QE2 remains until the end of June, therefore it's likely to underpin the current trend...

therefore, unless it breaks out of the 5-day lows, and is also trading below the Weekly and monthly 50% level @ 1324.50, the trend bias remains stable.

S&P (e-mini ) 23rd April 2011 Weekly

2011-04-22T16:43:00.000-07:00

Because of the shift in the Weekly lows, there is now greater chance of a larger reversal pattern towards lower Support levels @ 1247-57, if there is a daily close below those Weekly lows @ 1299

Previous Weekly report

S&P500 Primary and Weekly

Last week began with a Sell off from the Weekly 50% level and a daily close below support levels and the Weekly lows @ 1299.

As noted in the previous weekly report, this pattern would normally have set up more weakness for a reversal pattern towards lower support levels in April @ 1247-57.

However, the following day followed a ‘fake-break’ pattern, which then rallied back towards the Weekly highs.

As we can see in the Primary cycle…(left chart)

The S&P 500 is once again trading around the upper Yearly level @ 1331, which has formed resistance during the months of February, March, & currently in April

The S&P may remain below this level, and once again try for another breakout pattern below the weekly lows for a move towards trailing support levels, as QE2 comes to an end

or last week’s price action and fake break pattern sees the trend continue towards the monthly highs in April & then MAY @ 1356-1365.

S&P (e-mini ) 16th April 2011 Weekly

2011-04-15T15:27:00.000-07:00

I favour the initial move down and back towards the monthly 50% level in April.

That 50% level around 1304-1305 is a critical support level...

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Selling pressure earlier this week with a change in the Weekly dynamic levels from 1322 to 1330.50

However, the S&P continues to remain above support, and based on the Weekly levels likely to push upwards in the short-term using the Weekly 50% @ 1319.50 as a trend guide.

The market continues to consolidate between the Yearly highs @ 1300-1331, and we can also see the Weekly lows have now caught up with the current Support levels.

AAt this stage I haven't factored in the S&P moving down into the lower 2nd Quarter support levels @ 1246-54.....(Previous weekly report)

Because of the shift in the Weekly lows, there is now greater chance of a larger reversal pattern towards lower Support levels @ 1247-57, if there is a daily close below those Weekly lows @ 1299

In conclusion:- trade on the side of the Weekly 50% level in the short-term

S&P (e-mini ) 9th April 2011 Weekly

2011-04-08T16:12:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

S&P has remained above the Weekly level @ 1322 forming a 'no control' 5-day pattern

A 'No control' pattern is when the trading range closes near where it opens, mostly in the middle.

When this happens the following week will often extend outward over the next 5-days. (trending)

Because the trend is above the monthly 50% levels, that move could be up, if the market is trading above 1331...

However, I favour the initial move being down and back towards the monthly 50% level in April.

That 50% level around 1304-1305 is a critical support level...

And at this stage I haven't factored in the S&P moving down into the lower 2nd Quarter support levels @ 1246-54.....

But it can happen

S&P (e-mini ) 2nd April 2011 Weekly

2011-04-01T15:06:00.000-07:00

In the short-term, whilst the market remains above 1300 the trend bias is to move upwards.

The S&P can continue to remain within a consolidation pattern around the Yearly highs @ 1300 and 1331, influenced by the levels in the Weekly range (White), until the start of April.

Previous Weekly Report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

The Trend bias has resumed its upward trend remaining between 1300 and 1331.

The start of the 2nd Quarter, can now see further gains towards next week’s highs and then the April highs @ 1352+

However, based on the current price action on Friday, there’s the possible short-term reversal pattern of 2-days that could see the market revisit the April 50% level @ 1304.

Trailing support remains the Weekly 50% level @ 1296

In conclusion: - it’s a simple case of being on the right side of 1321.75 for next week

S&P (e-mini ) 26th March 2011 Weekly

2011-03-25T14:40:00.000-07:00

"The trend guide Weekly level @ 1271.50

Above and potential swing back towards 1293-1300, with the expectation the trend is continuing down"

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

My view was that the S&P would continue down towards the monthly lows because the market was trading below 1293 and the Yearly highs @ 1300.

1293 provided 3-days of resistance, along with 8.5 to 14 points of downward ranges, but without the follow through that I was expecting.

And everything changed with Thursday's daily close above the Weekly 50% level and also 1300.

Next Week:- In the short-term, whilst the market remains above 1300 the trend bias is to move upwards.

The S&P can continue to remain within a consolidation pattern around the Yearly highs @ 1300 and 1331, influenced by the levels in the Weekly range (White), until the start of April.

However, there are reports coming out that there are two large Macro Funds in the US that are now net long 250% on the S&P, therefore we can't discount the S&P following the monthly ranges once again (new highs by April)

Note:- If the market is once again below 1293/1300, then my view is that it will resume its move back down towards the monthly lows.

S&P (e-mini) 19th March 2011 Weekly

2011-03-18T15:35:00.000-07:00

#2) If the Market closes below the March 50% level and Yearly highs @ 1300, then there is a possible reversal trend towards lower support.

If #2 occurs then we could see the market trading back around
1210

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Breakout pattern was confirmed last week, however the first target of 1229.75 wasn't reached.

We currently have the S&P in a breakout pattern, and I would continue to look for more weakness towards the first target...and as low as 1202-1210.

Next Week:- the trend guide is simply based on the Weekly level @ 1271.50

My view is that the trend will continue down...

however, the S&P could swing back towards the Weekly 50% level and retest the 2011 highs @ 1300.

At this stage I'd be surprised to see the S&P above 1300 for the rest of the current month of March

S&P (e-mini )12th March 2011 Weekly

2011-03-11T15:10:00.000-08:00

What normally happens during each quarterly cycle after a double monthly high pattern (February), is that the trend will revisit the monthly 50% level and then continue higher, as seen in the Aussie market this week.

That might still happen next week, therefore it's a simple case of trading on the side of the Weekly 50% level

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

The S&P has reversed back into the March 50% levels and found support, with Fridays' reversal up from the daily lows, which matched 1283.50

There are two possible patterns that could play out for the rest of
the first Quarter and the month of March

#1) We have seen the market move down in an orderly fashion towards
the March 50% level, which forms support and then continues higher towards the 2nd quarter highs in April

#2) If the Market closes below the March 50% level and Yearly highs @ 1300, then there is a possible reversal trend towards lower support.

If #2 occurs then we could see the market trading back around
1210, helped by the events in the Middle East and also the rising
price of OIL.

S&P (e-mini ) 5th March 2011 Daily Weekly

2011-03-04T15:41:00.000-08:00

Weekly support @ 1295 is simply a short-term counter trend move back to retest the breakout @ 1329-1331

If the market stalls @ 1331, and is once again trading below the Weekly 50% level, then traders need to keep an eye on the lower Weekly level @ 1304.

If the market begins trading below 1300-1304 , then I'll be looking for more weakness.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Last week saw an early sell off from 1331 back down into the support levels of 1300-1304.

However, Wednesday closed back above 1304, which resulted in the S&P moving into a consolidating 5-day range that closed near the Weekly 50% level

February's highs were a continuation of the resistance levels, which once again saw Friday sell down from 1331, but those levels disappear and push upwards next week, with a likely trend towards the MARCH highs.

What normally happens during each quarterly cycle after a double monthly high pattern (February), is that the trend will revisit the monthly 50% level and then continue higher, as seen in the Aussie market this week.

That might still happen next week, therefore it's a simple case of trading on the side of the Weekly 50% level, and looking for patterns within the daily range for 8.5 to 14 point ranges.

Note:- the S&P is trading around the 2011 highs in the Primary cycle.

Traders need to be aware of any market action below 1300, and especially the monthly 50% level, as this can often put pressure on the market to revisit the lower support levels in the first quarter

S&P (e-mini ) 26th February 2011 Weekly

2011-02-25T15:29:00.000-08:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

S&P was trading around the February highs, which were seen as resistance.

Weakness was verified on Tuesday, with a break of the Weekly level @ 1329-31, helped by Tuesday's rejection pattern (daily 50% level) as part of a 2-day reversal set-up.

As noted in the daily report on Thursday...Over the past 6 months the dynamic Weekly lows has supported the market during the current trend since September 2010, and 1295 was that level in February.

What we now have is a short-term counter-trend move back towards the Weekly 50% level @ 1322.50.

Things begin to get interesting from next week, as there are two larger timeframe patterns playing out.

#1) the market remains in an orderly pattern after this week's low @ 1295 and the trend continues back towards the Weekly highs, and then towards the MARCH highs.

#2) Weekly support @ 1295 is simply a short-term counter trend move back to retest the breakout @ 1329.

If the market stalls @ 1329-31, and is once again trading below the Weekly 50% level, then traders need to keep an eye on the lower Weekly level @ 1304.

If the market begins trading below 1300-1304 , then i'll be looking for more weakness.

Keep in Mind that the S&P 500 is already trading around the 2011 highs.

Weakness :- can remain within an orderly trend, and move towards the lower Monthly 50% levels....

Or any negative news of unrest spreading in the middle east towards Saudi Arabia, could have the potential to see a swift move back down towards the trailing 3-month lows @ 1209, and 1st Quarterly support...

Which was a similar pattern that occured last year, when the April highs reversed down into trailing Quarterly support levels, but for very different reasons.

S&P (e-mini ) 19th February 2011 Weekly

2011-02-18T15:48:00.000-08:00

There are numerous instances when the levels will provide resistance of 8.5 to 14 points during the trading day, which is the statistical range.

Those levels are 1331, 1339 & 1347

S&P Monthly and Weekly

The past 5-days saw the market hit two of those resistance levels:- 1331 & 1339.

the first resistance level provided a 8.5 point reversal.

The 2nd resistance level at the Weekly highs stalled the market for nearly 2 days, until late after hours buying pushed the futures market higher on Friday.

And Monday should hit the 3rd resistance level @ 1347.

Next Week:-

1347 is still seen as resistance, but the trend could also continue higher towards next week's highs @ 1357.

Once again I'd look for weakness of 8.5 to 14 points towards the Weekly levels @ 1329.

1329/31 will be the trend guide for the rest of the current month of February, as it will help define whether the trend remains above monthly highs, and then continues towards higher highs in March...

or there is short-term weakness back down into traling support levels (Weekly lows)

S&P Primary cycle and monthly range

If February remains supported above 1329/31 and continues to trend upwards in an orderly manner within the weekly range...

The upside target during 2011, will be 1429

Note:- all larger timeframe patterns are always validated with lesser known timeframe patterns to help find trades, whether shorting resistance or trading support within the daily range.

S&P (e-mini ) 12th February 2011 Weekly

2011-02-11T14:45:00.000-08:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

The S&P has followed the monthly charts in February and has continued towards 1331.

once again these levels will be seen as resistance:- 1331, 1339 & 1347.

There are numerous instances when the levels will provide resistance of 8.5 to 14 points during the trading day, which is the statistical range.

However, getting any lasting selling patterns won't be verified unless the market is back below certain weekly levels.

And that Weekly level is 1314.50 (next week).

Note:- the February highs completes the double monthly high pattern during the current Quarterly cycle.

If trading stocks on the long side, I personally wouldn't want to be buying into the market as these highs.

I would once again wait until markets rotate back into trailing support levels.

S&P (e-mini ) 5th February 2011 Weekly

2011-02-04T16:54:00.000-08:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Last week I had the view that the S&P would continue down, with a minimum move down towards the February 50% level.

Instead we had a rally from the Weekly lows towards new highs.

There were a few important patterns occurring last week that suggested more upside

#1 Monday closed back above the Weekly 50% level

#2 Monthly resistance levels in January disappeared and shifted higher in February.

#3 Daily close above the Weekly highs.

Next Week:-

Expectation that the trend is following the Weekly trend towards the February highs, and a double weekly high pattern

1316 is seen as resistance

if the market is below 1304, then we look for Short-term weakness back down into the February 50% level @ 1263

Note:-

As we can in the monthly charts, there is still the possibility that the trend during the first Quarter continues towards 1331

S&P (e-mini ) 29th January 2011 Weekly

2011-01-28T14:01:00.000-08:00

The S&P is now reversing down from the January highs

There are two possible patterns for the rest of this month

#A continues to drift lower until the start of the next Month, but then
makes higher highs in February (using the Weekly lows as support)

#B Next week more selling appears and the S&P continues down into the January 50% level @ 1214-1222.

Previous Weekly Report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

My view was that the S&P has reached its highs and was reversing down, however I needed to see a reversal pattern on a 'Friday' down into the Weekly 50% level.

The previous Week didn't play out as expected, and we saw the Market push back towards the highs (as noted in last week's report)

And finally this week provided the reversal down into the Weekly 50% level, with Friday's price action.

As per expectation of the reversal down from the highs, the minimum move is down into the Weekly lows.

These Weekly lows have less probability of supporting the market after the January highs have been reached, but there are two possible patterns that can play out.

#A:- market continues down and follows an orderly double Weekly low pattern:- next week's lows and then the following Weekly lows, that coincides with the February 50% level

or

#B:- next week continues to trend down into 1212-14

(which I'm hoping)

S&P (e-mini ) 22nd January 2011 Weekly

2011-01-21T15:12:00.000-08:00

S&P Primary and Secondary cycles

The S&P is now reversing down from the January highs

There are two possible patterns for the rest of this month

#A continues to drift lower until the start of the next Month, but then
makes higher highs in February (using the Weekly lows as support)

#B Next week more selling appears and the S&P continues down into the January 50% level @ 1214-1222.

S&P Weekly

This Week saw the S&P reverse down from the January highs @ 1295, with the expectation that the market would move back down into 1277 (weekly level)

There was an important pattern taking place over the past few days that could have seen more selling next week, with the potential that Set-up B could play out

Keep in mind that the 3-week lows are support levels until the January highs have been reached. Because the monthly highs during the first Quarter have already been reached, the Weekly lows have less probability of supporting the market during the current Quarter.

My preferred pattern this week would have seen Friday continue down into the Weekly 50% level @ 1264, then open up below 1274 (resistance) and then continue down with a first target @ 1258 (weekly lows) and then hold (set-up B)

However, Friday didn’t play out as expected, instead moving upwards and remaining above key Weekly levels.

For the trend to continue down it needs to be trading below 1274. (selling down from the monthly highs and then trading below the Weekly 50% level)

But because of Friday’s price action, I’ve seen on many occasion the following week actually push upwards from the Weekly 50% level and move back towards the highs. (more consolidation at the top)

So my view of continuing lower early next week might not play out as expected, but whilst the market remains trading around the January highs, my continued focus until the dynamics shift in February is to trade on the short side.

S&P (e-mini ) 15th January 2011 Weekly

2011-01-14T16:09:00.000-08:00

Based on Friday's price action and support using the Daily lows, my view is that next week will begin with the trend trying to move upwards over the next 2-days.

The trend guide is 1265.25, which will determine whether the S&P continues up towards the January highs @ 1280

How far Tuesday/Wednesday travels will determine whether price continues towards the January and then February highs.....

Previous Weekly report

S&P Weekly and Daily range

S&P has continued up towards January's highs @ 1280, with Tuesday providing support above 1265.25, and then Wednesday providing the change in the intra-day cycle for a trending pattern upwards, using the daily 50% level and daily channel high @ 1269

Wednesday's trading range resulted in a breakout of the 5-day high, which often extends upwards into the following daily highs:- break and extend pattern.

As seen with Friday's price action of testing the 50% level and daily channel high once again @ 1274.50

Next Week The market can continue to trend up towards the Weekly highs (Monday's highs)

If the market is below 1291.75, then I'm treating the S&P as part of a 2-day reversal pattern back towards the Weekly level @ 1277.

S&P Primary and Secondary cycles

S&P is nearing the 2011 highs @ 1300 quicker than expected.

My preferred pattern has always been a retest of the Weekly lows during late December early January (buy the dips), as seen with the Australian Market this week, however that hasn't happened.

We begin nearing the top levels in the Primary cycles from next week.

S&P (e-mini ) 8th January 2011 Weekly

2011-01-07T14:11:00.000-08:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

S&P has remained with its upward trend, as it moves towards the January highs @ 1280.

There is a larger Primary cycle that could see the S&P around 1300, as per previous report....

However, for the market to continue to move towards that high it would first need to visit the Weekly lows, which are currently @ 1238.

Next Week:- the trend guide is 1265.25, which will determine whether the S&P continues up towards the January highs @ 1280

Or moves down into support levels:- Weekly lows @ 1238.

Based on Friday's price action and support using the Daily lows, my view is that next week will begin with the trend trying to move upwards over the next 2-days.

How far Tuesday/Wednesday travels will determine whether price continues towards the January and then February highs.....

or a failure to remain above the Weekly level @ 1265, puts pressure on the market later next week.

S&P (e-mini ) 1st January 2011 Weekly

2010-12-31T15:37:00.000-08:00

S&P Primary Cycle

The end of the 2010 Primary cycle, and we begin a new Primary cycle for 2011.

Trading above the 2010 highs @ 1200 should continue to push up towards the 2011 highs @ 1300

a number of resistance levels in 2011 :- 1300 & then 1331.

The Primary cycle is a long time, therefore we continue to focus on the lesser timeframes (Monthly and Weekly), whilst looking for trading set-ups using the 5-day range and the Weekly levels.

We also need to be aware of any 'flash crashes' that may occur in 2011....

with the key support level @ 1173 (2011 50%)

S&P monthly and Weekly

My view was for the S&P to continue higher in the first Quarter for 2011, with the most robust setting using the 3 week lows as support (late December or early January)

In the short-term, the trend remains up, as long as price remains above the Weekly level @ 1253.50

If below, there is still the possibility that price moves down and finds support at those 3-week lows @ 1232-1234

My preferred pattern would be price coming down into those lows first before the January highs have been reached @ 1280

If the January highs @ 1280 are reached first without moving down into the Weekly lows, then the support levels will differ later in the January, as they won't be as valid.

S&P (e-mini ) 25th DEC 2010 Weekly

2010-12-24T14:29:00.000-08:00

My view is that the S&P will complete the break and extend pattern from the October highs @ 1174 and into the December highs 1249-1252, and then go looking for the weekly lows later in December or early January.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly Range:- Dilernia Model

We can see the S&P reach the December highs and likely continue towards the January highs in the first Quarter of 2011.

However, the ideal pattern to capture the continuation of the UP trend would be to see the S&P revisit the weekly lows, which have now crept upwards and are currently @ 1222

The DOW will mimic the same patterns as the S&P, but it hasn't reached those same December highs @ 11593, therefore we have the S&P consolidating around the highs waiting for the DOW to complete the same pattern.

Therefore the trend in the S&P can continue up towards next week's highs...

and if the S&P is going to move down into the Weekly lows, then the first sign will be a daily close below 1248.

S&P (e-mini ) 18th DEC 2010 Weekly

2010-12-17T15:07:00.000-08:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly (Dilernia Model)

S&P moved into an extremely tight trading range over the past week, as it looks to be grinding to a halt as we get closer to the holiday season with a lack volatility

My view is that the S&P will try and complete 1249.50 next week (1252) and then go looking for the 3-week lows later in December or early January.

Whether the market continues up or goes down... the trend guide over the next 5-days will be determined by the Weekly level @ 1239.50

If price moves down from 1239.50 on Monday, then my view is over the next 5-days it will be more of the same, as the market drifts towards the Weekly 50% levels.

S&P (e-mini ) 11th December 2010 Weekly

2010-12-10T14:34:00.001-08:00

upper targets are likely to be reached next week :- 1238 to 1249.

December highs @ 1249 will complete the break and extend pattern from October's breakout @ 1174

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

1249 is likely to be reached by new week. (1252)

Once that completes I'll be looking for a potential reversal back towards the 3-week lows.

However, there needs to be lesser patterns that will verify that expectation...

for example:- a breakout of the 5-day lows

S&P (e-mini ) 4th DEC 2010 Weekly

2010-12-03T14:26:00.000-08:00

The most likely outcome is the S&P continuing to consolidate over the new few days until the start of December.

If the S&P is going to continue upwards, then the most robust support level will be the levels in December and a push up towards higher highs.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Montlhy and Weekly

There is a breakout of the October highs @ 1174, which resulted in the S&P finding support around that level for a number of week's during November.

And on the first day of December the market begins the next leg up towards the December highs.

Those upper targets are likely to be reached next week :- 1238 to 1249.

December highs @ 1249 will complete the break and extend pattern from October's breakout @ 1174

S&P (e-mini ) 27th November 2010 Weekly

2010-11-26T14:13:00.000-08:00

The S&P has remained within the weekly levels and continues to trade above 1182, which is the critical trend guide for the 4th Quarter.

However, in the short-term the S&P 500 can continue to consolidate between the Weekly levels until the start of December.

Previous Weekly Report

S&P 500 (Futures)

S&P continues to consolidate around 1182 in the 4th Quarter and remain within the Weekly levels.

There is a Dilernia Drop in the forward monthly timeframe, therefore there is a bias to continue lower in the current month, which may move down towards the November levels @ 1161.25

However, the most likely outcome is the S&P continuing to consolidate over the new few days until the start of December.

If the S&P is going to continue upwards, then the most robust support level will be the levels in December and a push up towards higher highs in the first quarter

Bearish pattern would be anything below the December 50% levels, as the market would be rotating back towards the 2011 Yearly 50% levels (Primary cycle)

S&P (e-mini ) 20th November 2010 Weekly

2010-11-19T15:26:00.000-08:00

S&P 500 Monthly and Weekly

We saw early selling come into the market this week, as price moved down and retested last months breakout of the October highs @ 1175

The S&P has remained within the weekly levels and continues to trade above 1182, which is the critical trend guide for the 4th Quarter.

Whilst the market remains above 1182 the trend bias is up towards 1255...

However, in the short-term the S&P 500 can continue to consolidate between the Weekly levels until the start of December.

S&P (e-mini ) 13th November 2010 Weekly

2010-11-12T14:39:00.000-08:00

S&P is likely to continue up towards 1255.

However, it might take a number of weeks to get to that level, as I believe the market will move back and trade once again within the Weekly ranges :- Orderly patterns.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Monthly and Weekly range

S&P has moved once again within the Weekly ranges (orderly patterns) and looks to be moving back towards the major support levels around 1182.

Higher Weekly open and trading below 1217.50 put pressure on the S&P to move towards a lower Weekly close, also helped by the Dilernia Drop in the forward Weekly timeframe (the trader trading book)

If the trend in the S&P 500 is going to continue towards 1255, then 1182 needs to hold support over the coming week or so

In the short-term (next week) we use the weekly levels in deciding which direction the market will go
Next week begins a new week from a lower Weekly open and around the Weekly 50% level, which can see the trend swing back towards the highs...

or drift down towards the Weekly lows:- support

S&P (e-mini ) 6th November 2010 Weekly

2010-11-05T15:35:00.000-07:00

S&P 500

S&P has followed the November dynamics helped by a breakout of the weekly highs on the same day as the Fed announces the printing of $600 Billion to stimulate the economy.

S&P is likely to continue up towards 1255.

However, it might take a number of week to get to that level, as I believe the market will move back and trade once again within the Weekly ranges :- Orderly patterns.

That means that in the short term the market can continue towards next week's highs

But it can also mean that next week begins with a minor reversal pattern to retest the Weekly breakout & 1201.25.

Trend guide 1217.50

Major on the S&P is now 1182

S&P (e-mini ) 29th October 2010 Weekly

2010-10-29T14:10:00.000-07:00

S&P 500

S&P continues to hit resistance around the October highs, but failing to reverse down towards trailing support levels.

Those October highs (resistance) have now shifted and dynamically moved higher during November. (next Week)

The trend guide will be simply be defined by 1182-1187 and next week's levels.

My preferred pattern continues to be a minor reversal down into support levels (Weekly lows) before the trend has the potential to move upwards.

If the trend is going to continue higher, then the weekly lows need to hold support using a lower 'Friday' close pattern.

S&P (e-mini ) 23rd October 2010 Weekly

2010-10-22T14:57:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

1182 continues to form a major resistance zone, as seen earlier this week with Monday and Tuesday selling down...

However, the Weekly levels continue to support the market.

And even though I think the market is trying to push down towards the November 50% levels...

It can just simply continue upwards and follow the Weekly trend next week towards the highs @ 1194+

Trend guide 1177

S&P 500 (e-mini ) 16th October 2010 Weekly

2010-10-15T15:43:00.000-07:00

Market dynamics suggests more gains next week towards Monthly highs, using the Weekly levels (white) as a trend guide @ 1154.

If or when the S&P 500 reaches 1182, my opinion it will lose steam and begin to unwind later in the month back towards the Monthly 50% levels in November ....

Previous weekly Report

S&P Monthly and Weekly

1154 sent the S&P up into resistance levels in the 4th quarter @ 1182

My view is that the S&P is starting to lose steam around these highs, but to help verify weakness price needs to be trading below 1166 next week, along with a possible Wednesday 'sell' pattern.

S&P (e-mini ) 9th October 2010 Weekly

2010-10-08T15:10:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Early sell pattern down into the Weekly 50% level, and as per Weekly report this week has followed Set-up B as price has moved up from 1143.50 to 1165…

Market dynamics suggests more gains next week towards the Weekly and Monthly highs, using the Weekly levels (white) as a trend guide @ 1154.

If or when the S&P 500 reaches 1182, my opinion it will lose steam and begin to unwind later in the month back towards the Monthly 50% levels in November

S&P (e-mini ) 2nd October 2010 Weekly

2010-10-01T16:32:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

3rd Quarter closes with price trading around the September highs @ 1142

4th Quarter target is 1174 to 1182.

My preferred pattern is to have the S&P move lower over the next 2-weeks down into the October 50% level and then continue higher.

Weekly trend guide 1143.50

first Weekly lows will form support levels @ 1111-17 and then drift lower (2nd week)

SET-UP A, as described in the previous weekly report

SET-UP B, is the trend moving upwards from 1143.50 towards 1165 early next week

S&P (e-mini ) 25th September 2010 Weekly

2010-09-24T15:23:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Whilst above 1098.50 the trend bias is upwards during September, and this week has seen the market continue up into September’s highs, stall, drift back down and then swing back towards the Weekly highs on Friday.

There are two possible patterns based on the Quarterly target @ 1175-79.

Set-UP A: - Hits the September highs @ 1142-1144 and reverses down towards the October 50% level, and the trend then continues upwards in the 4th Quarter:- first target 1179

If Set-up A occurs then there is more probability that the trend can continue to rise upwards for the rest of 2010 :- 2 to 3 month up trend:- steady up trend

SET-UP B: - Doesn’t reverse down but continues to hit minor resistance levels @ 1142 & 1158, but then completes the move into 1179 in early October:- next 2 -weeks.

If this pattern occurs then there is more probability that price will reverse back down at the start of the 4th Quarter:- larger trend reversal and volatility

This is same pattern that occurred in January and April this year.

My preferred pattern is SET-UP A occurring, but after Friday's price action that might not be the case.

SET-UP A could be be verified by a Wednesday 'sell' pattern and price trading below 1129.75

S&P (e-mini ) 18th September 2010 Weekly

2010-09-17T15:35:00.000-07:00

S&P Weekly

This week's expectation was for the trend to continue up into resistance levels based on the Weekly and Monthly highs.

Friday's reversal pattern has an expectation of further weakness early next week:- 2-day reversal

If price is below 1116, then the trend bias is down towards 1097.

Around 1098.50 remains a major trend guide for the 3rd Quarter.

Below 1097, and price is revisiting 1078.50 (September 50% level)

My view is that the S&P will move into a consolidating pattern until the start of the 4th Quarter. (drifting lower)

Note:- A 2-day reversal pattern next week could result in a 2-day 'stall' pattern.

If price continues to remain above 1116, then the trend bias is up towards 1141-1144 later in the Week.

S&P (e-mini ) 11th September 201o Weekly

2010-09-10T17:08:00.000-07:00

Based on the current price action the trend looks to be moving up towards the September highs @ 1126, with minor resistance around 1115.

Last Week's Report

S&P 500 Weekly

Based on the current price action the market expectation is to continue towards the September highs- 1123- 1126

Those levels will be seen as resistance.

If that's the case we then begin to look for patterns in the 5-day range, and see if there is going to be a possible rotation back down towards the Weekly and monthly 50% levels @ 1078.50

That will be verified by a 5-day low breakout and price trading below 1098.50- 1099

S&P (e-mini ) 4th September 201o Weekly

2010-09-03T18:36:00.000-07:00

September 50% level starting next week is going to be the trend guide for the rest of the 3rd Quarter

Either price swings upwards and moves back towards 1128

or it follows the September 50% level rejection pattern, as part of the continuation of the trend being below 1098.50.

Previous Weekly report

S&P Weekly

The shift in market dynamics from August to September provided the impetus for the market to rally this week.

At the start of last week my view was to continue lower, especially when price move back below 1056 and started to move lower, as part of the trend being below the 1098.50 during the 3rd Quarter.

However, that changed on Wednesday with the cross over of the September 50% level and a breakout of the 5-day highs on Wednesday on the same day.

A breakout of the 5-day range will normally follow a break and extend pattern upwards on the next day (Thursday) and thereafter continue into higher highs by Friday to 1098.50 to 1102

Based on the current price action the S&P and friday's close, the trend looks to be moving up towards the September highs @ 1126, with minor resistance around 1115.

S&P (e-mini ) 28th August 2010 Weekly

2010-08-27T16:57:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Weekly lows provided support and price is now rotating back towards the September 50% level.

That level starting next week is going to be the trend guide for the rest of the 3rd Quarter

Either price swings upwards and moves back towards 1128

or it follows the September 50% level rejection pattern, as part of the continuation of the trend being below 1098.50.

If that's the case the move down is towards 970, ( with a possible spike down into 938).

However, around 970 is an ideal level to be moving back into stocks for the rest of 2010, as it is the Yearly 50% level, which is the same level that has supported the Australian market for the past few months

What we need to keep an eye on next week, is the 50% level @ 1079 and how price responds to it.

If the market moves upwards and then breaks below 1056 from Wednesday, then we begin to look for the down trend to continue during September

S&P (e-mini ) 21st August 2010 Weekly

2010-08-20T14:39:00.000-07:00

S&P monthly and Weekly Ranges.

Early rise upwards this week resulted in 1098.50 providing a robust resistance level, and as pointed out in the Premium Report on Thursday...

Once price drops below 1084.75 the trend bias was to move back down into the Weekly lows:- lower Weekly close by Friday

At this stage I favour more weakness, with a trend bias down towards 1022 during the 3rd quarter...

However, based on Friday's lows there is a potential 2-day counter-trend to begin next week

Next week's 5-day trend guide will be based on 1077.50, along with the levels in the 5-day range whilst trading 8.5 to 14 point spiral points for day traders.

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S&P (e-mini ) 14th August 2010 Weekly

2010-08-13T15:38:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Last week’s view was to continue higher based on the same pattern of rising up from Friday’s lows:- as long as the market remained above 1116.

As pointed out in the Premium Report on Wednesday....

Tuesdays' close below the daily 50% level and below 1116, the trend bias is to move lower.

The changed of trend began with Tuesday’s reversal bar and daily close below 1116 , and the verified by the breakout of the 5-day lows on Wednesday @ 1102 and a continuation down into the medium term support level @ 1078.

Current price action suggests more weakness whilst below 1085...

Because price is below the monthly 50% levels in August the trend bias is to continue down, but that will need to be verified with a breakout of the Weekly lows @ 1063...and a continuation of 3rd quarter weakness

Otherwise above 1085 can move into another 5-day consolidating pattern between 1098.50 and the Weekly lows, and the market remains in a sideways pattern for the next couple of weeks.

S&P (e-mini ) 7th August 2010 Weekly

2010-08-06T15:26:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

Whilst the Trend is a above 1099 the bias is to rise upwards during August.

Trend target is 1155.

However, this is likely to follow the Weekly pattern formations over the next 2-weeks.

Similar 5-day pattern as last week, and with Friday's low providing support, the trend should continue towards 1137 this week.

As long as it remains above 1116

S&P (e-mini ) 31st July 2010 Weekly

2010-07-30T17:26:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

This week has seen the Market reach the Weekly highs @ 1117 and reverse back down into support levels.

Based on current patterns and the price action on Friday, my view is
for the S&P to continue towards next week's highs.

Friday's low normally sets up a continuation trend upwards over the next
2-3 days

Those up moves will be defined by price remaining above 1106

S&P (e-mini ) 24th July 2010 Weekly

2010-07-23T16:05:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

As per last week's report....

Either the trend was going to continue down from 1099 or it was going to remain within the Weekly ranges until the end of July...

With Friday's close above 1099 it now looks like the market is following the Weekly ranges up towards next week's highs.

Trend guide for next week is 1099.

S&P (e-mini ) 17th July 2010 Weekly

2010-07-16T15:05:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

As per previous Report, my view was that 1099 would stall the UP trend (resistance), and that the 3rd Quarter would begin to move down towards the monthly lows and towards 969.

There are two possible patterns.....

This month continues to trend downwards and into the July lows

or

The market consolidates between the Weekly levels until the end of July, with a bias towards 969 in the 3rd Quarter.

S&P (e-mini ) 10th July 2010 Weekly

2010-07-09T16:05:00.000-07:00

S&P Weekly

"Drive down into June's lows has the July lows pushing lower, with the likely target 969 (Yearly 50%). Support will need to be verified with a 5-day high breakout & above the Weekly 50% level for a swing back towards the monthly 50% levels @ 1099...... Previous Weekly Report

Expectation that Price would continue down into July's lows failed to materialise, but the price action to verify the reversal pattern played out....

5-day high breakout (white).... and price is trading above the Weekly 50% level with the trend swinging back towards the monthly 50% levels July

Next Week's trend guide is the Weekly 50% level.

S&P monthly

The pattern for the most robust swing trade was to see the market move down into July's lows and then continue towards 1099...

Based on the current market dynamics I'm treating this Quarter as a sideways 3-month pattern between 1099 and the Monthly lows.

S&P (e-mini ) 3rd July 2010 Weekly

2010-07-02T17:00:00.000-07:00

DOW Yearly and S&P monthly

Expectation that the DOW is moving back towards 9124, (Yearly 50% level) which will be seen as support in 2010, but will need to be verified with a 5-day high breakout thereafter and a swing back towards the 3-month 50% levels.

S&P 500:- Drive down into June's lows has the July lows pushing lower, with the likely target 969 (Yearly 50%)

Once again support will need to be verified with a 5-day high breakout (above the 3-Week 50% level for a swing back towards the 3-month 50% levels @ 1099.

And likely consolidation for the rest of the Quarter.

S&P (e-mini ) 26th June 2010 Daily recap

2010-06-25T16:38:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly & Weekly

Last week's reversal down from the highs and failure of the Weekly 50% level is now setting up the S&P to continue down into the 3rd Quarter lows. (July)

The UP trend was dependant on the weekly 50% level holding, but the 5-day low breakout on Tuesday gave us clues that wasn't going to happen.

Currently the 2nd Quarter 50% level (yellow) is supporting the S&P, but with the shift in the 3rd Quarter 50% the move is likely to continue down July towards the 3rd Quarter lows, with a possible move as far as the 969 (Single Year 50% level)

Next Week:- the market can continue to consolidate for the next 5-days until July begins and we use 1109 as resistance, or the Weekly 50% levels can send the S&P lower pushing July's lows closer to 969.

S&P (e-mini ) 19 June 2010 Weekly

2010-06-18T14:34:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

This week has seen the 3-week highs and June 50% level stall the market from rising, but not provide any major selling, and we can now see the Weekly timeframe close above 1106.50.

This has the potential to send the S&P upwards over the next 2-weeks... (July)

Support will be defined by 1105.75 for next week, and likely to follow the Weekly range upwards.

If next week decides to trend upwards then the Weekly highs have less probability to stall the market from Thursday onwards, and the 5-day highs have less probability to provide reversal patterns.

This week's close failed to move to the 5-day highs on Friday, and because of this pattern I don't have the view that next week will begin with a 2-day reversal pattern and move below 1105.75

Next Week is simply going to be defined by the June 50% level and 1105.75.

How far the next 2-weeks rises is random, but whilst above 1105.75 the trend is up until the start of the 3rd Quarter and the start of a new 3-month cycle.

S&P (e-mini ) 12 June 2010 Weekly

2010-06-11T16:49:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly and Weekly

S&P trading around higher timeframe support levels (3-Quarterly 50% levels 1074) but below the June 50% levels.

At this stage I'm treating the S&P as hitting resistance around the 3-Week highs and 3-month 50% levels in June.

Often the 3-week highs and 3-months 50% levels can send the trend back down, or at least keep June consolidating below the June 50% levels @ 1111.50

S&P (e-mini ) 5th June 2010 Weekly

2010-06-04T15:21:00.000-07:00

S&P Yearly and Quarterly

As per Previous Weekly report, there is a chance that the S&P continues down towards the Yearly 50% level in the 3rd Quarter.

Friday has closed below the 3-Quarterly 50% level, which is bearish.....

And at this stage, whilst the market remains below the 3-month 50% level the bias is down, but the speed of the move towards 969 is unknown.

S&P Monthly and Weekly

2-month wave pattern completes around the June lows.

If the market was going to 'trend' down into 969 I would have preferred to have seen Friday closed near the June 50% level and then sold off from a higher Weekly open:- trust pattern.

Because of the current patterns we could end up with minor swing patterns (UP) next week, using 1049 as a random support level.

However, the overall trend remains bearish and pushing lower.

S&P500 (e-mini ) 29th MAY 2010 Weekly

2010-05-28T17:15:00.000-07:00

S&P Yearly, Quarterly and Monthly

S&P Trading around the 3-Quarterly 50% level and the MAY lows, and I expected a little more upside this week for a move towards the June 50% levels that begin next week.

As explained in last week's report there is a potential 2nd month down move in June from the monthly 50% levels, and some of the biggest sell-offs occur in the last month of the Quarter when price begins from the monthly 50% level.

3d Quarter 'thrust' pattern into the 2009 Yearly 50% level has completed from the March lows.

Any further UP moves would need to align with the 4th Quarter 50% level, and continue up from the 4th quarter 50% level and into the highs, which aligns with the Yearly 2010 highs.

If that happens then price can push back down into the Yearly 50% level in 2010 and consolidate for a number of Quarters during next year and move into a long-term sideways pattern until the 2nd half of 2010"...... Weekly report 15th August 2009

What happens if the S&P follows last year's forecast?

if the S&P 500 follows the same pattern and moves down into the 2010 50% level, that is 100 points lower or 1000 points in the DOW.

In conclusion:- It's too early to get comfortable with current support levels, as there are a couple of lesser timeframes that still have bearish patterns.

Note:- the Weekly timeframe will still remain within the MAY timeframe and won't begin until the week after, which may result in another 5-day sideways pattern

S&P (e-mini ) 22nd MAY 2010 Weekly

2010-05-21T16:22:00.000-07:00

S&P Weekly

The past 2 weeks has seen precise text book patterns based on the Weekly low breakout @ 1173 and subsequent price action down into this week's lows @ 1055.

And as per Friday's Daily report....

"If and when those Weekly lows and Friday lows occur I'm expecting a larger swing pattern back towards the June 50% levels"

Therefore our support next week is 1076.25

and the rotation is back towards the Weekly 50% levels.

S&P monthly

Current support is valid during MAY and any rotation is towards the June 50% level.

Once price reaches the June 50% level there is a possible continuation down in the following month

Why?

Whenever there is a Monthly high reversal pattern they usually move in 2-month wave patterns.

Most reversal patterns occur in the previous month and then follow the trend down into the current month, find support and then the trend continues higher once above the monthly 50% level.

This reversal pattern started in MAY therefore June becomes the 2nd month.

Therefore any reversal back towards the June 50% level must be viewed as resistance until proven wrong.

S&P Quarterly and Yearly

The basic premise on the Quarterly and Yearly timeframes is that any subsequent weakness in June or trading below the Quarterly 50% level @ 1074...

and then trend is to continue down towards the Yearly 50% level @ 969 in the 3rd Quarter.

S&P (e-mini ) 15th MAY 2010 Weekly

2010-05-14T14:51:00.001-07:00

S&P Monthly

S&P continues to trade below the Monthly 50% level, and at this stage we have an expectation that price is rotating down towards the June lows.

The current 'major' support levels around the 3-quarterly 50% level & MAY lows are extremely robust, and it doesn't necessarily mean that the trend will continue down into a double monthly low but there are a number of patterns in the lesser timeframes that will provide some pre-emptive moves.

S&P Weekly and 5-day pattern

Last week's price action was 'pre-emptive' as it played out as expected.

A number of precise text book patterns over the past 2 weeks.

Previous Week saw a Weekly low breakout and trend spike down into the
MAY lows.

Pre-emptive:- This week saw the 3-day counter-trend move beginning from the
Weekly 50% level and retesting the previous Weekly low breakout and then
a Thursday sell pattern with the expectation of a lower Friday close.

Normally Thursday has a much greater range on the
downside (trading below the monthly 50% levels once again), but Friday’s break verified the downward move into the Weekly 50% level and Friday’s lows"

Next Week:- Friday's 5-day low support can often provide a 2-day reversal pattern upwards using the Weekly 50% level as a guide.

However, I'm not sure that the market will continue much further from Wednesday.

The reason being is that a Weekly breakout (1168-73 previous Week), will often extend down towards the Weekly lows.

Currently that hasn't happened, which means anything below the Weekly 50% level and the bias is to continue towards the Weekly lows either next week or it could take a number of weeks to continue to drift down into the Weekly lows.

DOW S&P 8th MAY 2010 Weekly

2010-05-07T13:47:00.000-07:00

DOW S&P Monthly

As mentioned a few weeks ago...(17th April)

"The UP trend won't continue until the start of the next month after revisiting the MAY 50& levels

or

# follows a double monthly low move into major support levels and the Quarterly 50% levels.(Yellow)

Don't discount this, because the US markets will revisit the 3-month lows during the year and it hasn't as yet. "

Treat US markets as part of a double monthly low pattern into June, using the MAY 50% levels as resistance.

That means, I'm expecting these levels to hold support during MAY, but possibly double dip into lower lows during June.

DOW S&P Weekly

There is a breakout of the weekly lows, which should continue down into the Weekly lows this week.

If that happens then we look for a swing back towards the MAY 50% levels.

Note:- If Monday closes higher but below the Weekly 50% level, I would normally look at this price action as a 'short' trade:- sell resistance and a higher daily open on Tuesday

However, I have also see these exact pattern continue higher and move into a 3-day UP move to retest the previous Weekly lows.

That means that by Wednesday price can be trading above the MAY 50% level, but from Thursday onwards look for a move back down into the lows.

DOW S&P 500 1st MAY 2010 Weekly

2010-04-30T15:50:00.000-07:00

DOW S&P Monthly

Break and extend reversal pattern from April highs down into the monthly 50% levels failed to play out. Instead the April highs formed a resistance zone which now disappears and shifts higher in MAY

There is an expectation that price would continue towards the 2nd Quarter highs, but normally that occurs from the Monthly 50% levels in MAY.

Next week both markets align with the Red levels (single monthly 50% level & 3-week 50% level), and it becomes and each way bet on direction.

Whilst below those levels price is moving down into the MAY 50% levels:- and then it might take a few weeks for US markets to find support (3-week consolidation) and then continue upwards in June to complete the 2nd Quarter highs.

Or next week's continues upwards, as the April high resistance levels disappear and the MAY highs align with the 2nd Quarter highs in the S&P @ 1230.75

Daily report out on Monday

DOW S&P 24th April 2010 Weekly

2010-04-23T16:30:00.000-07:00

DOW S&P Monthly

Double top high in the 2nd quarter has failed to materialise with Friday's close above the April highs in the DOW.

There is still 1 week to go until MAY begins, but at this stage the target of 1230 in the 2nd quarter for the S&P 500 is going to be reached much quicker than I expected.

DOW S&P Weekly

The entire double top scenario played out accordingly until Wednesday's failure to continue down into the 5-day lows, and with Friday's close above the 5-day highs this is likely going to push the Markets upwards on Monday.

Based on the Weekly timeframe & range, it might take another 2-weeks until 1230 is reached as price remains within the 5-day range.

There is still a slight chance that the 3-week lows are tested before 1230 is reached, but price would need to be trading below the weekly 50% level.

Daily report out on Monday.

DOW S&P 17th April 2010 Weekly

2010-04-16T14:53:00.000-07:00

DOW S&P Monthly

2nd Quarter target in the S&P is 1230 and we can see the MAY highs are now aligning with the upper target.

However, we are now trading the completion of the break and extend pattern during this quarter and the expectation that price is moving back towards the 3-month 50% levels.

The most robust set-up for a continuation of the down trend is a double top on the DOW early next week @ 11082...

And the holding pattern is until the start of MAY.

The UP trend won't continue until the start of the next month.

There are three possible patterns....

A. moves down into the MAY 50% level and then continues higher, as per 4th Quarter in 2009

B. moves down into the April 50% level and then consolidates for a couple of weeks below and then continues back towards the highs, as per first Quarter in 2010.

C. follows a double monthly low move into major support levels and the 3-Quarterly 50% level.

Don't discount #3, because the US markets will revisit the 3-month lows during the year and it hasn't as yet. We saw a similiar pattern in the Aussie market in the first Quarter.

Therefore:- depending on the how many contracts traded the bias is to hold into the the first target @ 1139 and then into the close of the month.

If there is a breakout of the 3-week lows next week, then there should be another 'short' set-up using the 3-Week 50% level the week after.

DOW S&P 10th April 2010 Weekly

2010-04-09T15:45:00.000-07:00

DOW and S&P Monthly

Break and extend patterns from March continuing towards April's highs.

These break and extend patterns have provided reversal patterns in each Quarter:- October's highs & January's highs, and I'll be looking for the same patterns around April's highs

2nd Quarter target @ 1130 in the S&P, but in the short-term around April's highs I will look for reversal patterns once again back towards the Monthly 50% levels.

Break and extend will complete, and once again it will depend on how much 'lag' time there is in the DOW, as it seems the S&P will reach 1201 earlier.

DOW S&P Weekly

Expected resistance around the Weekly highs played out on the S&P, but not in the DOW.

And the lag time provided friday's rally into higher highs and likely to continue upwards early next week.

DOW S&P 3rd April 2010 Weekly

2010-04-02T15:22:00.000-07:00

S&P Monthly

2nd Quarter target @ 1230

Along the way we are trading the intermeditate patterns within the Monthly timeframe and the lesser patterns within the Weekly timeframes.

DOW S&P Weekly

Next Week's highs are viewed as resistance in an UP trend.

Any rotations down will be verified using the patterns in the 5-day range.

Any larger rotations down will need to see the Weekly 50% levels fail to hold.

Support:- April 50% levels and 3-week lows